By: Jake Friedman
Introduction:
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Craig Ranch for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Jason Day is the defending champion taking this tournament down with a score of -23 to par. The 2 years prior, TPC Lee (K.H. Lee), won this tournament at -26 in 2022 and -25 in 2021. This is your typical PGA Tour birdie-fest.
As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!
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DFS Guide
10k range
Jordan Spieth ($10,900) - With the form we've seen from Spieth recently he has absolutely no business being the highest prices DFS player in the field this week. He has 1 top 10 and 3 missed cuts in his last 5 starts and frankly it's been ugly. His world class short game has gone missing which is a major red flag. He's lost strokes around the green in 5 of his last 5 starts. With that being said, I hope the ownership reflects how bad the golf game is at the moment and hope to capitalize on Spieth here. He's played at TPC Craig Ranch twice in his career, with a finish of T9 in 2021 and 2nd in 2022. This is a pick that you could regret after 3 holes on Thursday or the pick that can win you your contests. I'm all over Spieth this week.
9k Range
Si Woo Kim ($9,800) - Regadless of his high ownership projection in my model, I still think Si Woo should be considered in your lineups this week. His recent form has been great finishing in the top 20 in 3 of his last 4 appearences. Pair that with his 2nd place finish here last year and that's how you get a high owned Si Woo Kim. He's a very accurate driver of the golf ball and is well above average on approach and around the green. The driving distance is slightly below Tour average and the putter is known to hold him back a bit as well. Although, in 3 of his last 4 starts Si Woo has been positive with the putter and in 2 of his last 4 starts he's beaten the field average in driving distance. South Koreans tend to thrive at TPC Craig Ranch and all the signs are pointing to Si Woo having a very successful week.
Tom Hoge ($9,100) - Hollywood Hoge will be another popular play in this range but he's one of my favorites to win this week. Throwing out the missed cut at the Zurich, which is a team event so it really doesn't count in my opinion, Hoge has 8 top 20 finishes in his last 10 starts. That's some impressive form to say the least. His course history isn't much to rave about with his best finish being a T17. With that being said, this should be a course that Hoge can compete and win at. Hoge is an approach and putting stud. He's slightly below average in around the green and driving distance and slightly above average in driving accuracy. If the driver and around the green cooperate, I expect Hoge to come away with a victory this weekend.
8k Range
Thomas Detry ($8,700) - Detry has burned me a couple times this year but I'm ready to fire him up again in my lineups, for better or for worse. Coming into this week with some nice form, Detry has a T8 last week at the Zurich, T28 at the RBC Heritage, T2 at the Houston Open, and T17 at the Valspar. He's never played at TPC Craig Ranch but I think his game should pair decently with it. Detry is long off the tee compare to Tour average and is a great putter. The rest of his game struggles a bit coming in under Tour average, but he's gained in his last 4 appearences with his irons. I'm projecting him to come in at less than 10% ownership which for sure makes him a play this week.
Mackenzie Hughes ($8,600) - Trying to avoid the K.H. Lee and Adam Schenk chalk, I'm going to pivot to Hughes here who profiles fairly well. He finished T14 here last year and is coming in on 5 consecutive made cuts. That includes a T3 at the Valspar and a T14 at the Houston Open. Mackenzie Hughes is a phenominal short game player with an elite around the green game and putter. He's right about Tour average when it comes to driving distance and apprach. Where he struggles is accuracy off the tee which isn't the end all be all here at TPC Craig Ranch. He seems like a good pivot who has the game to be successful here.
7k Range
Matthias Schmid ($7,200) - At a place where a bomberoff the tee with a good putter should be successful, I'm rolling out Schmid in my DFS lineups this week. He missed the cut in his only appearence at this course last year, but I'd argue he's a much better golfer this time around. Making the cut in 6 of his last 7 starts, including 4 top 20 finishes, Schmid is in some fine form when it comes to DFS purposes. He's very long off the tee and Tour average in driving accuracy, approach and putting. His around the green game is pretty abysmal over the long term but has beet teetering around even the past 2 months. I think he's a long shot to win, but very live nonetheless to potential contend on Sunday and have a great DFS week.
Jacob Bridgeman ($7,000) - One of my favorite DFS plays of the week, Bridgeman is coming into this week with 4 top 25 finishes in his last 6 starts. In the 2 starts he didn't place in the top 25, he missed the cut, so he's a high risk high reward play. He's also never played at TPC Craig Ranch. He profiles as an extremely well rounded, average PGA Tour player. He's slightly above/below Tour average in the 5 major categories with the putter being his biggest weapon. I'm looking for the 24 year old Korn Ferry graduate to grab abother top 25 finish this week.
6k Range
Dylan Wu ($6,700) - Coming off of 5 made cuts in a row, I'm turning to Dylan Wu to continue the made cut streak and help fill in a few of my top heavy lineups in DFS this week. The results haven't been flashy, but 5 made cuts in his last 5 appearences which incldudes 3 top 30 finishes is solid from a guy at this price. He's missed the cut in both of his appearences at this course which isn't ideal. Wu is slightly above Tour average when it comes to driving accuracy, approach, around the green, and putting which makes him profile rather well at every course he tee's it up at. He's short off the tee which might be a small hinderence this week, but I'm willing to bank on the other aspects of the game to lead him to making the cut and possibly posting a top 30 finish.
Quade Cummins ($6,400) - For those who find themselves in a pickle and need to dig deep, I think Cummins is a servicable option in the back half of the 6k range. Coming from the Korn Ferry Tour, the 28 year old is making his season debut on the PGA Tour this week. Motivation is of no concern as a top finish this week can do wonders for eventually earning that coveted Tour card. On the KFT, he's coming into this week in some fine form finishing T5 last week and T14 the week before that. His long tern stats show he is slightly below Tour average in driving distance, approach, and putting while he's slight;y above Tour average when it comes to driving accuracy. The around the green game leaves much to be desired but playong on the KFT and having this profile isn't horrible. I'm looking for him to make the cut at 1-2% ownership to fill in a few lineups I went top heavy on.
Outright Betting Card
Tom "Hollywood" Hoge +4000 0.44U
K.H. "TPC" Lee +5000 0.35U
Matti Schmid +10000 0.175U
Robert "Bobby Mac" MacIntyre +12500 0.14U
These are the plays I've locked in thus far but please give me a follow on X and/or join the Discord to see my full betting card for the week!
Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!
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