By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
We head to Royal Troon Golf Club for the final major of the 2024 season. Royal Troon Golf Club consists of 3 courses, but for this week they will be playing on The Old Course. It is a links style golf course located in Scotland. The course measures 7,175 yards and is a par 71. The last time Royal Troon hosted The Open Championship was in 2016 when Henrik Stenson won. Other previous winners in the field include Brian Harman, Cameron Smith, Collin Morikawa and Shane Lowry, etc. The best from The PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and LIV golf will be in the field this week.
DFS Guide
10k Range
Rory McIlroy ($11,400) - Rory's current form is extremely under the radar due to Scottie Scheffler's historic season. In his last 7 starts, Rory has 2 wins, 3 top 5's and 2 top 15's. His tournament history at The Open is immaculate. In 14 appearences, Rory has 1 win, 5 top 5's, and 1 top 10. That includes a T5 finish back in 2016 when this tournament was hosted at Royal Troon. On the 2024 season, McIlroy ranks 2nd in strokes gained off the tee, 27th in strokes gained on approach, 22nd in strokes gained around the green, and 47th in strokes gained putting. I don't think the ownership percentage is going to be a steal by any means, but I do think a lot of ownership will be directed towards Scottie Scheffler which opens the door to playing Rory this week.
Jon Rahm ($10,400) - Rahm has been a bit of a disaster in the 2024 majors we've seen him in this year. He came T45 at The Masters, missed the cut at the PGA Championship, and withdrew before the start of the U.S. Open with an injury. He's also been of a mixed bag on LIV this season, but his recent form of a T3 and T10 the past 2 weeks shows some promise to his game. Over the long term, Rahm is above average in strokes gained off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting. He is long off the tee and when his irons are clicking he is one of the best, if not the best in the field. The only reason I'm writing him up this week is because of the ownership percentage. I think he is going to come in far and away as the lowest owned player in this range. In bigger contests, if he has a good outing, this can pay huge dividends. Rahm is an extrememly talented player and when he is playing well, he can certainly take down a tournamnet. His last 4 appearences at The Open he finished T11, T3, T34, and T2. Based on ownership alone, he's worth putting in a couple of your lineups for bigger contests.
9k Range
Collin Morikawa ($9,900) - Morikwa is playing some incredible golf as of recent. In his last 10 starts, which dates all the way back to The Masters, Morikawa's worst finish was a T23 at the Zurich Classic which was a team event. His worst solo finish over that stretch was a T16 the following week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Although the past 2 Open Championship's haven't treated Morikawa well with 2 missed cuts, he won in his debut back in 2021. On the 2024 season, Morikawa ranks 16th in strokes gained off the tee, 39th in strokes gained on approach, 12th in strokes gained around the green, and 66th in strokes gained putting. I think the ownership is going to be very high, but if you skip the 10k range all together or play the ownership game the remaining 5 slots in your lineups, I wouldn't be afraid to play Morikawa this week.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,100) - It's been a very underwhelming season for Cantlay but he has quietly gotten himself back into form over the past couple weeks. At the U.S. Open, Cantlaty finished T3 and at the Travelers he finished T5. In 5 appearences at The Open, he has 1 top 10 and 1 top 15. On the 2024 season, Cantlay ranks 75th in strokes gained off the tee, 89th in strokes gained on approach, 33rd in strokes gained around the green, and 42nd in strokes gained putting. It's nothing to really write home about but I do think the ownership comes in quite low for a very talented golfer. Given the recent form, I'm going to roll the dice with Cantlay and hope he can extend his run of top 5 finishes this week.
8k Range
Tom Kim ($8,300) - Tom is playing some solid golf coming into this week, but what I like the best is that he seems to play links golf extremely well. He has 2 top 5 finishes in his last 6 and a top 15 at last weeks Scottish Open. In his 2 starts at The Open, Tom Kim has a T47 and T2. On the 2024 season, Kim ranks 71st in strokes gained off the tee, 73rd in strokes gained on approach, 74th in strokes gained around the green, and 93rd in strokes gained putting. The season long stats are pulled down by Tom Kim's slow start to the season, but he's back to what we would expect from him. The 22 year old has some serious game and is already a 3 time PGA Tour winner. I think there’s a chance this week for him to get his first major win under his belt. I think the ownership is going to be pretty high at this price, but he’s going to be well worth it.
Wyndham Clark ($8,000) - Another player who’s quietly gotten himself back into form. In his last 2 starts he’s finished T9 and T10 respectively. Clark started the season scorching hot, then cooled off, and now it appears he’s gotten back into form. Last years U.S. Open winner, we know he has the ability to take down a major. In his 2 starts at The Open, Clark has finished T76 and T33. On the 2024 season, Clark ranks 26th in strokes gained off the tee, 72nd in strokes gained on approach, 78th in strokes gained around the green, and 16th in strokes gained putting. Im not positive where the ownership will be since the price is so low, but regardless, I’ll be playing him in a few lineups based on the talent and ability to win a major.
7k Range
Sahith Theegala ($7,200) - After an impressive T4 finish last week at the Scottish Open, I think Theegala is primed to win his first major in his career this week. It's been a bit of a rollercoaster this year for Theegala, but he's shown the ability to have spike performaces and string multiple good starts in a row together. In his 2 Open starts, he's finished with a missed cut and T34. On the 2024 season, Theegala ranks 23rd in strokes gained off the tee, 28th in strokes gained on approach, 118th in strokes gained around the green, and 25th in strokes gained putting. Theegala's ability to get creative and shape his shots is an intangible asset when it comes to major championship play. I think after a T4 last week and how creative Theegala is, this is a great chance for Theegala, although the ownership will be towards the higher end.
Akshay Bhatia ($7,000) - Another player very quietly in great form coming into this week is Bhatia. In his last 4 starts he has a T22, T16, T5 and T2, with one of those being the U.S. Open. Akshay will be making his Open debut this week and I'm expecting him to make a splash similar to what Morikawa did in his debut (for those who don't know, he won). On the 2024 season, Bhatia ranks 40th in strokes gained off the tee, 17th in strokes gained on approach, 113th in strokes gained around the green, and 27th in strokes gained putting. If the around the green play cooperates, even in the slightest, we can be in for a huge finish. I think this is a loaded 7k range and high 6k range where Bhatia might fall below the radar. He's a play for sure in my books.
6k Range
Sungjae Im ($6,900) - Sungjae is coming into this week in phenomenal form. In his last 10 starts, Sungjae has 1 win, 3 top 5’s, 2 top 10’s, 2 top 15’s and 2 missed cuts. His tournament history isn't anything great finishing missed cut, T81, and T20 in his 3 appearences. What I do like to see is that he's improved year over year at this tournament which could attest to him becoming more comfortable with links style golf. Another testament to that is his T4 finish last week at the Scottish Open. On the 2024 season, Im ranks 30th in strokes gained off the tee, 87th in strokes gained on approach, 23rd in strokes gained around the green, and 78th in strokes gained putting. Similar to Tom Kim, these numbers are pulled down from a slow start to the season, but from the recent form I just outlined, he's back to where we want him to be. The ownership is going to be through the roof as I think this is the biggest misprice on the board by a long shot, but I'm going to eat the chalk and look to diversify in other spots.
Davis Thompson ($6,900) - After his first PGA Tour victory, I'd consider his first PGA Tour start over the ppond last week a success with T46. I'm looking for Thompson to build off of that T46 for this week. His recent form is impressive with a T9, T2, win, and T46. He is making his debut at The Open this week. On the 2024 season, Thompson ranks 54th in strokes gained off the tee, 41st in strokes gained on approach, 3rd in strokes gained around the green, and 68th in strokes gained putting. I'm hoping the steam is settling on Thompson after many expected a better finish last week. I'll be ready to fire him up as he continues his run of good form and getting used to links style golf across the pond.
5k Range
Mackenzie Hughes ($5,900) - In his 18 starts in 2024, Hughes only has 4 missed cuts which would be a bit more meaningful if his 2 major appearences on the season weren't included in that. He does have a few spike performances on the season and has an elite short game over the long term. In his 2 Open appearences, he has a T6 in 2021 and a missed cut in 2022. On the 2024 season, Hughes ranks 139th in strokes gained off the tee, 137th in strokes gained on approach, 19th in strokes gained around the green, and 8th in strokes gained putting. If the driver and/or the irons can cooperate in the slightest, Hughes can be in for another top performance this week. I think a lot of the ownership at the top of this range will go to Ben Griffin, so I like Hughes as a pivot.
Jesper Svensson ($5,300) - In his 18 starts in the 2024 season, Svensson has only missed 4 cuts (no this is not a copy paster error from Hughes) and includes a T53 at the PGA Championship and T34 last week at the Scottish Open. At this price, we are just asking Jesper to do what he's done all season, which is make the cut and get us some points on the weekend. He also has a win this season which I was fortunate enough to be on at the Porsche Singapore Classic. He's making is debut at The Open this week, but I don't weight that too much as he has plenty of experience playing links style golf on the DPWT. Svensson is long off the tee and has a solid putter. The approach is where we need to hold our breathe since the around the green has been positive in his last 4 starts. The ownership should be low and if he can just make the cut, it'll go a long way.
Outright Betting Guide
Collin Morikawa +1800*
Jon Rahm +2800
Tony Finau +5000
Tom Kim +5000
Sungjae Im +6500*
Wyndham Clark +7000*
Sahith Theegala +8000*
Akshay Bhatia +12500
*Free bet used for most or all of the action on this wager
Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!
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