By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
Major #2 of the 2024 season is upon us! The best golfers in the world make the trip to one of the greatest destinations on earth, Louisville, Kentucky (this is sarcasm for those who couldn't pick that up. Valhalla Golf Club will his the 2024 PGA Championship and boy do I think we are in for one of the most competetive tournaments in recent history. We have Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka all coming in this week with a win in their most recent start. We are getting the best golfers in the world in some of their best form, which means we will probably have a 100/1 winner to throw golf Twitter into a blender.
As always, please refer to Nate's article for a very in-depth breakdown of the tournament's field, course, and more!
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DFS Guide
10k+ Range
Scottie Scheffler ($13,200) - Dare I say we might get a discounted ownership on Scheffler this week? With Rory lifting a trophy in each of the last 2 weeks and $1,200 cheaper, I think Scottie’s ownership will be less than usual this week. Add in the fact that his wife just had their first child which means he’s been in the hospital in Texas and hasn’t gotten practice rounds in this week. Regardless of where the ownership was coming in this week I think if you are playing cash games or multiple lineups Scottie should be in at least a few of them as the best player in golf at the moment. The price tag is high but obviously warranted. No need to dive deep into his game as we know he’s having one of the best tee to green seasons we’ve ever seen in history. The putter is what determines Scottie’s fate and recently it’s been friendly to him. I’ll be playing Scottie in a few of my lineups this week.
Xander Schauffele ($10,900) - Since Xander can’t be played in the outright market, I love turning to him in DFS especially this week at Vallhala. After Friday last week it looked like Xander was finally going to get the win he was long overdue to get. Then Rory came along over the weekend and took the trophy from him. Putting that aside, Xander has been the most consistent player on the PGA Tour outside of Scottie. Last week marked his 8th top 10 finish of the season. Xander also brings a game that should be successful here. Long and accurate off the tee with elite irons and short game. It’s hard to have that profile and not be successful every time you tee it up. While people try to chase a winner in the 10k range, I’m fine playing what feels like a safe top 10 finish at hopefully a discounted ownership.
9k Range
Joaquin Niemann ($9,400) - one of the few LIV players coming over this week I consider to have win equity, I think this is a great price to get Niemann in your lineups. Coming into The Masters, he was the talk of the town winning 3 of the previous 7 times he teed it up. He finished T22 at the Masters which I consider a great finish in his first real competitive tournament of the year. With 4 top 10 finishes in his 5 starts after The Masters, I love this spot for Niemann. He’s long off the tee, Tour average in accuracy off the tee, elite with the irons, and above average around the greens and with the putter. Time to see if he’s the next LIV player to contend in a major not named Rahm, Koepka or Dechambeau.
Will Zalatoris ($9,100) - I know he’s one of my favorites golfers and this might seem like a homer play, but from a game theory perspective I think Zalatoris is a smash play in GPP’s. If you throw out Zalatoris’ 80 on Sunday last week, his first 3 rounds were pretty solid. The form has been out of sorts and that’s the reason he’s going to come in between 5-7% owned. When I think of places Zalatoris should be successful I think of hard, grind it out, single digit under par winner tournaments. Although I think Valhalla will play easier than previous PGA Championships, this is still a tournament and course Zalatoris should be able to find form on. He’s long and accurate off the tee and elite with his irons. The short game leaves a lot to be desired but what allows Zalatoris to succeed on difficult courses is his lag putting. Everyone thinks he’s an awful putter, which he objectively is from short distance, but what goes unrecognized is how competent he is with lag putting. Given the ownership and raw talent Zalatoris has, I love him in DFS this week.
8k Range
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600) - *Sets alarm 5 minutes before the tournament starts to make sure he's actually teeing it up this week.* It's no secret Hideki has been dealing with a plethora of injuries this season, but it's also not a secret when he's rumored to be injured and everyone moves off of him that he plays his best golf for some reason. The last time we saw him was at The Masters where he finished T38 being one of the more popular bets that week. Prior to that Hideki was ball striking the crap out of the ball. To add to Hideki's case, he won The Genesis Invitational just a handful of appearences ago. Hideki is slightly above Tour average in driving distance and driving accuracy. He's an elite iron and around the green player. Where Hideki tends to struggle is with the putter, but when Hideki is in the mode, the putter doesn't matter since he's sticking his approach to 3 feet every time. Down the stretch on a Sunday, toe to toe with the best of the best, I think he has the capability to not only contend, but possibly win.
Sam Burns ($8,500) - Probably my favorite play in DFS this week projected to come in around 5% owned. Burns is a PGA Tour winner and is more than capable of not only having a great finish, but winning here at Valhalla. Burns is having an up and down season which is his normal course of business but I think he’s trending up and now is the perfect time to roll him out. With a T13 finish last week at the Wells Fargo, his numbers were solid across the board and given how good of a putter he is, I’d argue it was one of his lower tournaments on strokes gained with the flat stick. Burns is another player who is long off the tee and great with the irons, but his strongest weapon is the putter which a lot of these guys don’t carry with that skill set. The ownership alone makes him a great play, pair him with the skill set that gives him a chance to win come Sunday makes him a smash play.
7k Range
Sungjae Im ($7,900) - Welcome back to earth Sungjae Im! What a miserable start to the year for Sungjae where it felt like he was no where near close to getting his form back. Thankfully, he's turned it around over his last 3 starts. A T12 at the RBC Heritage, a win on the KPGA, and a T4 last week at the Wells Fargo. Sungjae is an extremely well rounded golfer, even with his bad start to the 2024 season, he's still above Tour average in driving accuracy, approach, around the green, and putting. His driving distance is slightly below Tour average, which in my opinion, isn't the end all be all. I think this is an extremely cheap pricetag attached to a very skilled golfer who has finally found his form.
Min Woo Lee ($7,700) - One of my favorite golfers on Tour, I think this is a great opportunity in another major for Min Woo to cook. His ownership is a little higher than I would've liked, but he's still a play in my opinion given his skillset.
6k Range
Chris Kirk ($6,900) - What goes well with a PGA Championship victory? Diet Coke. I don't think Kirk wins but I do think he can be apart of the winning milly maker lineup in DFS this week. Kirk, similar to a few other people I've writte up so far, can go absolutely nuclear with the irons. He also had a very nice finish at The Masters this year with a T16. He followed that up with a T10 at the RBC Heritage and a T43 last week at the Wells Fargo. The skillset Kirk brings is slightly below average driving distance and putting, with above average driving accuracy, approach, and around the green play. Similar to what I said for Hideki, when Kirk is in the mode with the irons, the putter is irrelevant since he leaves himself 3 feet every hole. At this price and projected below 5% ownership, I will be playing Kirk in my lineups this week.
Cameron Davis ($6,600) - I wrote him up, played him in DFS, and bet him ourtight last week at the Wells Fargo and let me be the first to say it didn't go as I was hoping. But, I'm not ready to set him free just yet. Davis is a very well rounded golfer slightly above tour average in driving distance, approach, around the green, and putter. He is slightly below Tour average in driving accuracy. In order to make the cut and be competitive in a major you need a very well rounded game which I think Davis provides. He had a T12 at The Masters this year but didn't follow that up with much of any form, hence his price in DFS. He had a T4 in last years PGA Championship and this this is a good opportunity to roll him out in DFS again this week.
5k Range
Robert MacIntyre ($5,900) - Becoming a mainstay in my articles and on the podcast, I can't help but turn to MacIntyre here at this price. In his last 3 starts he has 2 top 15 finishes on the PGA Tour, which for this price range, it'll be hard for you to find much better. His player profile also points to him being able to have success here at Valhalla. He's long off the tee and above Tour average around the green and with the putter. His driving accuracy and approach play are below Tour average, but for this price range, I'm satisfied with the player I'm getting and the form he's in. He's also had some successful runs in his career at majors and not too long ago finished runner up to none other than Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open and really competed.
Erik Van Rooyen ($5,700) - I'm surprised he isn't more talked about or projected higher ownership, but I'm happy to turn to EVR here. Not too long ago, during the swing season, he paid me off with an 80/1 ticket at the WWT. Now coming off of a T5 finish last week in the alternate field event at Myrtle Beach, I'm happy to run him back up in my lineups to try and build off of that form he found last week. His player profile is probably the best in this range to compete this week given he is long off the tee, above average on approach, and above average with the flat stick. The driving accuracy and around the green play leave some to be desired, but again, given the form and the skillset I am getting here, I'm happy to take my chances.
Outright Card
I'll keep my write up and outlook for my outright card concise and in one paragraph so it doesn't get watered down and repeated.
To put it simply, I asked myself the following, if this person were head to head with Scottie on Sunday to win the tournament, do I trust them to get the job done? For me, the answer to that question was yes for both Koepka and Rahm. Those were the only 2 golfers I was confident enough to beat Scheffler.
Regarding Zalatoris and Theegala, I simply would not be able to live with myself if they were to win a major and I didn't have the winning ticket. At the odds I was able to bet them at, I've spent $25 on worse things in my life. If for nothing, which is more than liekly the case, I consider these peace of mind wagers.
Brooks Koepka +1600
Jon Rahm +2000 0.875U
Will Zalatoris +7000 0.25U
Sahith Theegala +7000 0.25U
Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!
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