By: Jake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman)
Introduction
The PGA Tour heads to TPC River Highlands for this weeks Travelers Championship. The defending champion of this event is Keegan Bradley who won with a score of -23. This is an elevated, no cut event this week so the best of the PGA Tour will be in attendacnce with the exception of Rory McIlroy who has withdrawn. The winning score over the past few years has come in at the high teens to low twenties so expect this to be a bit of a birdie-fest. TPC River Highlands is located in Cromwall, Connecticut and was redesigned to TPC standard by Pete Dye. The course is a par 70 measuring 6,841 yards.
DFS Guide
10k Range
Scottie Scheffler ($12,500) - Despite having his worst finish in a PGA Tour event in about 2 years, I don't think anybody should be afraid to turn back to Scheffler this week. He is still far and away the best player on the PGA Tour. He ranks 4th in strokes gained off the tee, 1st in shots gained on approah, 11th in shots gained around the green and 95th in strokes gained putting. The flat stick went cold last week on some very challenging greens, but that was the first time Scottie lost strokes putting over his past 9 starts. Over the course of those 9 starts, Scheffler has won 5 times. The early course history isn't great, but over his last 2 appearences at TPC River Highlands he has a T13 and a T4. We can only hope that the ownership takes a dip, even though he will still be the highest owned player in DFS this week.
Xander Schauffele ($11,200) - Outside of Scheffler, I would argue that Xander is the most consistent golfer on the PGA Tour. Over his last 11 starts he hasn't finished outside of the top 25. The PGA Championship winner looks to find another win this year at a course he took down back in 2022. Xander's game is course proof and he ranks 9th in strokes gained off the tee, 5th in shots gained on approah, 21st in shots gained around the green and 17th in strokes gained putting. If you have any reserve about Scottie's game after last week (which I don't), Xander is another great option to start your lineups off.
9k Range
Collin Morikawa ($9,800) - With how good Morikawa has been playing, I’m shocked he’s still in the 9k range. This will come with a chunk of ownership for sure, but I’m happy to skip the 10k range in a couple of my lineups and headline them with Collin. Over his last 8 starts, which included 3 majors, Morikawa’s worst finish was T23. He ranks 15th in strokes gained off the tee, 51st in shots gained on approah, 13th in shots gained around the green and 77th in strokes gained putting. The putter is the usual cause for concern, but over this stretch of golf he’s been consistently gaining about 1 stroke per round with the flat stick. Surprisingly the course history is not good at all with 2 missed cuts in 2023 and 2020, and a T36 back in 2019. I think the win is coming soon for Morikawa, but at worst his floor should still be a top 25 finish given his recent run of form.
Sam Burns ($9,000) - Another player who has been playing some awesome golf a little more under the radar, I love burns at the rock bottom of this price range. Over his last 3 starts he has a T9 at the U.S. Open, T15 at the Memorial, and T10 at the RBC Canadian Open. He ranks 27th in strokes gained off the tee, 69th in shots gained on approah, 84th in shots gained around the green and 31st in strokes gained putting. The course history is nothing to write home about but his well rounded skill set and current form lead me to believe he's going to have a chance at winning this thing on Sunday.
8k Range
Russell Henley ($8,600) - I'm turning to one of the most consistent and well rounded golfers to lead off the 8k price range. Henley only has one missed cut on the season and has littered top 20 finishes all season long. His course history at TPC River Highlands aligns with his current form with 4 top 20 finishes in his 6 appearences here. He ranks 100th in strokes gained off the tee, 42nd in shots gained on approah, 18th in shots gained around the green and 21st in strokes gained putting. Last week the putter spiked and the irons were dead even so I'm hoping he can keep the putter hot and get the irons going to have another top 20 finish here.
Brian Harman ($8,300) - The course history horse this week, Harman is the play here. Over his last 6 appearences at TPC River Highlands, he has 5 top 10 finishes. Outside of last season, Harman wansn't a top 20 golfer on Tour and to have those consistent high finishes at a course can't be ignored. He ranks 104th in strokes gained off the tee, 56th in shots gained on approah, 53rd in shots gained around the green and 24th in strokes gained putting. His current form isn't anything amazing but it's been consistent top 35 finishes. I think he will garner some ownership due to his history here but I think he needs to make his way into a couple of your lineups.
7k Range
Sungjae Im ($7,900) - Welcome back to form Sungjae! He did miss the cut last week at the U.S. Open but I will happily throw that out with how challening it was out there. His issues started and ended with the putter where he lost over 2 strokes per round with the flat stick. Besides that, he was fine. He ranks 22nd in strokes gained off the tee, 119th in shots gained on approah, 58th in shots gained around the green and 99th in strokes gained putting. Over his last 7 starts he has 2 missed cuts and 5 top 15 finishes. I think this is a misprice for how well he has played over the last 2 months.
Akshay Bhatia ($7,200) - Quietly finding the form that won him the Valero Texas Open earlier this season, I'm all over Bhatia this week. He ranks 41st in strokes gained off the tee, 21st in shots gained on approah, 115th in shots gained around the green and 42nd in strokes gained putting. His last 2 times teeing it up at the U.S. Open and at the Memorial he finished T22 and T16 respectively. He's making his TPC River Highlands debut this week which I think pairs really well with his game. If he can keeo the shortgame in the green and spike with the irons which we've seen him do multiple times already this season, I don't see why he can't contend this week. At this price, it feels like a no brainer to me.
6k Range
Adam Svensson ($6,400) - It's been a very underwhelming year for Svensson but I think this is where he finds some form and has a solid finish. Over his last 10 starts he has made the cut in each start, but his best finish is only a T24 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He ranks 89th in strokes gained off the tee, 33rd in shots gained on approah, 87th in shots gained around the green and 168th in strokes gained putting. Week in and week out the tee to green play is there for Svensson, it's the putter that really lets him down. He has a T25 here in 2022 so I'm hoping he can replicate that and get the flat stick to as least be servicable this week.
Emiliano Grillo ($6,300) - Similar to Svensson, it's been a bit of an underwhelming stretch over the past few weeks. I do like that he made the cut the past 2 weeks at very difficult tournaments in the U.S. Open and the Memorial. He ranks 90th in strokes gained off the tee, 57th in shots gained on approah, 116th in shots gained around the green and 64th in strokes gained putting. His accuracy off the tee and solid approach game point me to him being successful here at TPC River Highlands. At this price I think he's worth a shot.
Outright Betting Guide
Hideki Matsuyama +3250 0.5385U
Max Homa +6000 0.2917U
Sam Burns +6448* 0.2714U
Akshay Bhatia +9000 0.1945U
Adam Svensson +20000 0.0875U
*Effective odds net of boosts, parlays or free plays
I do have a ridiculous 7-leg parlay that is just pending Scottie Scheffler outright here but I can't include a ~+6000 parlay when the player is +400 outright.
Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!
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