By: Jake Friedman (@THEJakeFriedman on X)
Introduction
We have the second major of the 2024 season this week, the U.S. Open, which will be hosted at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina. This week, the best golfers in the world (including LIV) will be battling it out to lift the U.S. Open Championship trophy. Pinehurst No. 2 was originally designed by Donald J. Ross and is a par 70 measuring 7,588 yards.
DFS Guide
10k Range
Scottie Scheffler ($13,000) - Scottie has lifted a trophy in 5 of the last 8 times he teed it up and his worst finish over that stretch was a T8 at the PGA Championship where his son was born the week before and he was arrested in the middle of the tournament and had to warm up from a jail cell. Simply put he is the best golfer in the world at the moment and the run we are seeing him on is comprable to prime Tiger Woods. He is currently ranked 2nd in shots gained off the tee, 1st on shots gained approach, 14th in shots gained around the greens and 71st in shots gained putting. He is the best player on Tour tee to green which will be heavily tested this week at Pinehurst No. 2. His ownership will be close to 50% so take that as you will, but he feels like a free square at the moment and there are plenty of pivots in lower price ranges to differentiate your lineups.
Rory McIlroy ($12,100) - Rory has lifted a trophy in 2 of his last 5 starts, which is being completely overlooked due to how well Scheffler is playing. He's currently 5th in strokes gained off the tee, 24th in strokes gained on approach, 66th in strokes gained around the green, and 39th in strokes gained putting. To add to that, he is 3rd in strokes gained total on the PGA Tour this season. The last time Rory finished outside the top 10 at a U.S. Open was in 2018. In my opinion, he should be the second highest owned in this range but I'm projecting him to be the 3rd or 4th. I think there is a big opportunity for Rory in DFS this week.
9k Range
Ludvig Åberg ($9,600) - My only play in this price range is the U.S. Open debutant, who despite the rumor of a torn meniscus, profiles extremely well not only for Pinehurst No. 2, but for U.S. Open's in general. In his lalst 10 starts, Åberg has 6 top 10 finishes. He is ranked 18th in strokes gained off the tee, 15th in strokes gained on approach, 89th in strokes gained around the green and 61st in strokes gained putting. The short game is imperative this week and that's where the weaknesses in Åberg's game are. What gives me hope is that last week at Muirfield Village, an extremely difficult course, Åberg managed to gain roughly a stroke per round around the green and with the putter. With a large chunk of the ownership in this range going to Morikawa, I think Åberg is a good option, although he will definitely not be low owned.
8k Range
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500) - With 4 top 20 finishes in his last 5 appearences at the U.S. Open, Fleetwood is a solid option here in this range. The current form isn't anything amazing, but it is very solid with 3 top 20 finishes in his last 4 starts. He ranks 71st in strokes gained off the tee, 131st in shots gained on approach, 17th in shots gained around the greens and 58th in strokes gained putting. The approach is cause for moderate concern although he's gained in his last 2 on approach. I'm going to bank on Fleetwood relying on his incredible short game to carry him to another top 20 finish at the U.S. Open.
Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,200) - The 2022 winner is the other option in this price range to fill out your lineups. It's been a rollercoaster of a year for Fitzpatrick with some good runs of form and some bad runs of form. I think we are catching Fitzpatrick on an upswing coming off a T5 last week at Muirfield Village. He ranks 79th in strokes gained off the tee, 91st in stroked gained on approach, 74th in strokes gained around the green, and 32nd in strokes gained putting. Similar to Fleetwood, I like Fitzpatrick this week for his solid short game his recent ability to drive the golf ball both far and accurate.
7k Range
Min Woo Lee ($7,300) - Despite the disappointing season Min Woo Lee is having, I think his style of play fits well for a U.S. Open. His distnce off the tee and elite short game over the long term set up well for the U.S. Open which is proven by his T27 in 2022 and T5 in 2023. He currently ranks 10th in strokes gained off the tee, 117th in strokes gained on approach, 98th in strokes gained around the greens and 115th in strokes gained putting. There's no hiding behind how ugly the numbers are for Min Woo this season, but the off the tee is elite and the short game hasn't been abysmal over the past couple weeks. I'm hoping there's a bit of an ownership discount on him this week for there to be an opportunity to put up another great finish at a U.S. Open.
Sam Burns ($7,200) - Despite the ownership Burns is going to get this week, I think he needs to be discussed and played in a few lineups this week. He's coming into this week in great form with 3 top 15's in his last 4 starts. His U.S. Open history isn't great with his best finish being T27 in 5 appearences, but Pinehurst No 2 isn't your typical U.S. Open venue and I think Burns can contend here this week. Burns is an all around solid golfer. He ranks 32nd in strokes gained off the tee, 60th in strokes gained on approach, 99th in strokes gained around the green, and 54th in strokes gained putting. Over the longer term, he is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. With the mix of strokes gained he's put up over the past 4 appearences, if he can piece his game together and catch a hot putter like he has proven he can do throughout his career, I think Burns posts his best finish at a U.S. Open this week.
6k Range
Alex Noren ($6,900) - Generally speaking I would say to avoid the higher owned players in this range, but Noren this week is an exception. He has been playing some unbelieavable golf this season. The U.S. Open hasn't been so kind to Noren in his career, but he does have 2 top 25 finishes in his last 5 appearences. With that beind said, Noren is a completely improved golfer than his past results show. He currently ranks 42nd in strokes gained off the tee, 26th in strokes gained on approach, 9th in strokes gained around the green, and 63rd in strokes gained putting. To add to that, he is 4th in strokes gained total on the PGA Tour this season. No that is not a type. The only people ahead of him are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy who are the 3 highest priced players in DFS this week. I'm looking for the elite short game of Noren to carry him this week.
Tom McKibbon ($6,200) - I'm turning to my first DPWT player in DFS here with McKibbon. He has been playing some absolutely incredible golf on the DPWT this season. McKibbon has placed T25 or better in 9 of his last 10 starts which includes 4 top 10 finishes. He is an fantastic driver of the golf ball on the DPWT consistently driving the ball long and accurate over his last 10 starts. He can also get the putter going and is above Tour average in that department. The around the green is mild cause for concern, although over the last 10 starts it hasn't been awful. His ownership will be low and with the current run of form he is in, I think he's a great option in DFS this week.
5k Range
Mac Meissner ($5,800) - For the price tag, I think you are getting a very solid golfer. I think he will have a decent ownership percentage given some of his results this season, but regardless, I think he's a great option if you need to dip into this range. Over his last 7 starts, he 4 top 25 finishes. His stat profile backs these results ranking 77th in strokes gained off the tee, 69th in strokes gained appraoch, 18th in strokes gained around the green, and 92nd in strokes gained putting. The around the green is where I'm going to hang my hat on his stat profile and hope he can get positive with the putter. He missed the cut in his only appearence at the U.S. Open last year, but he is a much improved player.
Richard Mansell ($5,600) - Back to the DPWT, I'm going with a bomber who has played some consistently good golf this year. In his last 11 starts, he has 9 top 25 finishes which is about as consistent as they come on the DPWT. He absolutely mashes the ball off the tee which is where he gains most of his strokes on the field. He is an average iron and around the green player and despite having a pretty bad putter, he still mnages to put himself in contention each week on the DPWT. I don't like his chances to win this week but I'm just looking for a made cut and some points to add to my lineups on the weekend.
Outright Betting Guide
Scottie Scheffler (Free bets and small parlays used to elevated odds, I will update at the end of the week with my effective odds and units risked) - I've given this a lot of thought. I used to stand on the hill that betting a player at single digit odds to win outright was not the right way to go about it. I'm at the point where I can't imagine anyone beating Scottie Scheffler this week. The only person in my head I think can beat Scottie Scheffler is Brooks Koepka and even though he is known to show up in majors, the form isn't there for me to back him. The course fit is nothing short of perfect and on an extremely difficult course, I don't think anybody has a good chance of taking him down in his current form.
Min Woo Lee (+8000) 0.3125U - I placed this future at the beginning of the year with the hope that Min Woo Lee would be more on the trajectory that Sahith Theegala has had this year. A bunch of top 10 finishes with a handful coming at elevated events and majors. But, here we are with Min Woo Lee having a disappointing season. I don't endorse this wager at this point, but given the distance off the tee and elite short game, there is a shot in the dark if things get crazy this week that he can pull this out.
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