By: Jake Friedman
DFS Guide
10k Range
Si Woo Kim ($10,000) - It's been a pretty typical season for Si Woo Kim with a bunch of top finishes where the putter has let him down and consistent made cuts. Si Woo has cooled down a bit after a T15 at the Memorial and 5 top 20 finishes in 6 starts between The Players and the Wells Fargo. That being said, he's only missed 1 cut in the 2024 season which came at the PGA Championship. For the 2024 PGA Tour season, Si Woo ranks 21st in stroke gained off the tee, 12th in strokes gained on approach, 29th in strokes gained around the green, 150th in strokes gained putting, and 22nd in strokes gained total. He won this tournament back in 2016 and had 3 consecutive top 5 finishes here between 2019 and 2021. I know Lucas Glover won here last year so it might seem like a terrible putter can win here, but he was on a tear with the flat stick coming into the week. I don't think Si Woo wins becauase of that, but from a DFS standpoint, I project him to be low owned in this range with a high floor.
9k Range
Jordan Spieth ($9,500) - From purely a game theory perspective, I think this is my favorite play of the week. It's been a bit of a disaster 2024 season for Spieth based on our expectations for him. His best finish since mid April came a couple weeks ago at The Open Championship where he finished T25. What's even crazier is that this was Jordan's 4th best finish in the 2024 season, the other 3 were a 3rd at The Sentry (first event of the season), T6 at the WM Phoenix Open (3rd start of the year), and the Valero Texas Open (where we expect Jordan to play well since it's in Texas). To add insult to injury, for the 2024 PGA Tour season, Spieth ranks 14th in stroke gained off the tee, 116th in strokes gained on approach, 78th in strokes gained around the green, 85th in strokes gained putting, and 44th in strokes gained total. I know I just laid out the case for why turning to Spieth is a terrible decision, but that's just rationalizing that he is clearly going to be the lowest owned in this range. He has been solid off the tee on the season, gained on approach in 4 of his last 5 starts, has gained over a stroke per round around the green in his last 2 starts and has gained with the flat stick in 2 of his last 4 starts. The pieces seem to be there for Jordan as of recent, they just haven't come together at the same time.
8k Range
Robert MacIntyre ($8,300) - I feel like MacIntyre is going to fall completely under the radar in this range. He is a bit of a rollercoaster but he's proven this season, and especially over the past couple months that his floor is very low, but his ceiling is extremely high. Over his last 6 starts, MacIntyre has 2 wins (at the RBC Canadian Open and Scottish Open), 2 missed cuts, 1 top 15 finish, and 1 top 50 finish. From a DFS perspective, the high ceiling is what we are chasing this week. For the 2024 PGA Tour season, MacIntyre ranks 37th in stroke gained off the tee, 104th in strokes gained on approach, 52nd in strokes gained around the green, 49th in strokes gained putting, and 30th in strokes gained total. His strokes gained off the tee in his last 6 starts is better than his season totals suggest which makes him even more dangerous this week. If the irons cooperate, which we've seen in 3 of his last 6 starts, we could be in for a big, low owned week from Robert MacIntyre.
7k Range
Matt Kuchar ($7,300) - I can't help myself but turn right back to Kuchar this week after almost hitting him outright in his last start at the 3M where he finished T3. I called it 2 weeks ago that his game was trending in the right direction to contend although the results havn't been flashy. Outside of the T3 at the 3M in his last start, he has 2 top 25 finishes and 2 missed cuts in his last 7 starts. Also if you were to just look at the season long stats you would never expect Kuchar to contend. For the 2024 PGA Tour season, Kuchar ranks 146th in stroke gained off the tee, 140th in strokes gained on approach, 38th in strokes gained around the green, 29th in strokes gained putting, and 107th in strokes gained total. Over his last 5 starts, he's gained on appraoch including over a stroke per round 2 starts ago at the John Deere Classic, and over two strokes per round in his last start at the 3M. It's actually been the putter that's been letting Kuchar down which is extremely uncharacteristic. If he can turn that flatstick around like we know he can, I think he has a realistic shot of winning this week and that makes him an absolute steal at this price in DFS.
6k Range
Ben Silverman ($6,900) - After 8 consecutive made cuts, I'm turning to Silverman here in the 6k range as a safer play. The recent starts haven't been anything to write home about, but the consecutive made cuts are impressive. During his run of 8 straight cuts made, Silverman has 3 top 20 finishes at Myrtle Beach, Rocket Mortgage, and the John Deere. For the 2024 PGA Tour season, Silverman ranks 88th in stroke gained off the tee, 90th in strokes gained on approach, 68th in strokes gained around the green, 14th in strokes gained putting, and 28th in strokes gained total. Overall, Silverman is a very solid player and a near elite putter. He's gained with the irons in 5 of his last 6 starts and has gained on the field in driving accuracy in 6 of his last 8 starts. For the price, you are getting a relatively safe DFS option to close out your lineups.
Outright Betting Guide
Sungjae Im +3980*
Akshay Bhatia +4000
Patrick Fishburn +10000
J.J. Spaun +11000
Matt Kuchar +12000
Matt NeSmith +25000**
Chez Reavie +40000**
*Effective odds net of boost/partial free
**Free play used for entire wager
Good luck in all your action this week and please remember to gamble responsibly!
Коментарі