By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
The PGA Tour heads to Florida for this week's Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, formerly known as The Honda Classic. This event is hosted at PGA National Resort which is a par 71 that measures just over 7,100 yards with Bermuda greens. There is danger everywhere on this golf course with water coming into play on almost every single hole. The hardest stretch of holes on this golf course, holes 15 through 17, is infamously known as the bear trap. There is also another stretch of extremely difficult holes on the front 9, holes 5 through 7. The reason why those 2 stretches of holes are so difficult is because each has 2 par 3's sandwiching a difficult par 4. As I just mentioned, the par 3's play extremely challenging while the par 5's play very easy. If you can avoid the big mistakes, survive the par 3's, and capitalize on the par 5's, you will be in a great position to contend this week.
I think you will see some disparity in the player profile that suits PGA National best this week. Consistently, you will see the desire for a player with great ball striking and who has the ability to get hot with the putter. That is going to be my main focus in modeling out this golf tournament this week. Where you will see some disparity is in the off the tee profile. Over the longer term, players who are accurate off the tee have an advantage compared to golfers with more distance off the tee. More recently, players with distance who can avoid trouble off the tee have been successful as well. With so much danger on almost every single hole, the driver is taken out of the hands of the big hitters on some holes. For that reason, I think I am going to be favoring distance off the tee as long as that player doesn't completely spray the golf ball. These players will be able to capitalize on the par 5's which are crucial for scoring this week. At the end of the day, I can see a strong case made for both sides of the off the tee debate and that's why I will be honing in on approach and putting.
Outright Betting Card
Denny McCarthy +4000
This might be the first time I've ever put Denny McCarthy on my outright betting card. I think he profiles extremely well for PGA National and has been playing some great golf. So far in his 2025 campaign, McCarthy has teed it up 5 times making the cut in each of those starts and finishing in the Top-20 3 times. His course history at PGA National is rather bleak outside of a T3 back in 2021. I'm not too concerned about the course history because I think this is the best we've seen him look in his career. Historically, McCarthy is a short but accurate driver of the golf ball with above average irons and an elite short game. He is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. We've seen this profile carry over to the start of 2025 for McCarthy, except the irons are looking much sharper. Although he hasn't won on the PGA Tour yet, I think this could be the week he breaks through and finally wins.
Strokes Gained Total - 47th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 120th
Strokes Gained Approach - 48th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 54th
Strokes Gained Putting - 68th
Lee Hodges +8000
Another player who profiles nicely for PGA National is Lee Hodges. His 2025 season results are extremely solid with 5 made cuts in 5 appearances, which includes 2 Top-10 finishes. His course history is strong as well with 2 Top-15 finishes in 3 career appearances. He profiles as an accurate driver of the golf ball with great irons and Tour average putting. That alone is reason to back him this week. When I was diving into his strokes gained data in 2025, I noted gaining with the putter, accuracy off the tee, and driving distance in 4 of 5 starts and gaining on approach in all 5 of those starts. I think Hodges' game is coming together nicely and that this is the week he can list his second trophy on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Total - 20th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 102nd
Strokes Gained Approach - 70th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 95th
Strokes Gained Putting - 9th
Joel Dahmen +15000
I'm taking a ride on the Joel Dahmen rollercoaster this week and I'm going to pitch why you should join me. Dahmen over the course of his career is one of the streakiest golfers on Tour. When things are going right, he will be at the top of the leaderboard. When things are going wrong, he will miss the cut by several strokes. In 5 appearances in 2025, Dahmen has 3 missed cuts and 2 Top-10 finishes. One of the Top-10 finishes came just last week at the Mexico Open. His history at PGA National is nothing to write home about with 2 missed cuts and a T33. Again, similar to Denny McCarthy, I'm not putting much weight into his course history. Dahmen's player profile shows an accurate driver of the golf ball with solid approach play. He lacks distance off the tee and has a pretty abysmal short game. The reason why I'm on Dahmen this week is because in his 5 starts in 2025, he's gained with the putter in 4. He's also gained off the tee and on approach in 4 of those 5 starts. This is one where the statistics jumped off the page and given his long odds this week, he was a no brainer to add to my card.
Strokes Gained Total - 25th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 55th
Strokes Gained Approach - 21st
Strokes Gained Around the green - 161st
Strokes Gained Putting - 36th
Henrik Norlander +30000
If you didn't think Norlander was going to make his way into my article at a positional ball striking tournament, it must be your first rodeo reading my articles. If that's the case, welcome and thank you for reading! Coming off a great week at the Mexico Open with a finish of T13, I'm excited to fire Norlander up this week at a course that fits his game much better. It's been a brutal start to the 2025 season, aside from last week, where he finished T40 at the Sony Open and then missed the cut the following 3 events. As a big Norlander supporter, this doesn't phase me as he had a solid end to 2024 and had some nice results during the swing season. His profile is a fairway finder with elite approach play. His results are heavily based on his short game cooperation. At such large outright odds, I couldn't resist turning back to Norlander.
Strokes Gained Total - 79th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 114th
Strokes Gained Approach - 12th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 117th
Strokes Gained Putting - 151st
DFS Selections
10k Range
Russell Henley ($10,700) - I think this is a great course for Russell Henley, and although I think he will have some higher ownership, I think there is still value in playing him in DFS this week. His 4 starts in the 2025 season have been characteristic of Henley with 4 made cuts, 2 Top-10 finishes, and 2 Top 40 finishes. He is a high ceiling, high floor player which makes him extremely valuable in DFS. Henley has a great course history at PGA National including a win all the way back in 2014. In 10 career starts at this event, he has 6 Top-25 finishes. Henley is well above average when it comes to driving accuracy, approach, around the green, and putting. He lacks distance off the tee which he more than makes up on approach to score on the par 5's this week. As I mentioned to start, I think this is a great course for Henley and that he'll add a tally to his Top-10 finishes to start his 2025 season.
Strokes Gained Total - 30th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 148th
Strokes Gained Approach - 24th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 77th
Strokes Gained Putting - 24th
9k Range
Denny McCarthy ($9,300) - If you read the Denny McCarthy breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! I think he profiles extremely well for PGA National and has been playing some great golf. So far in his 2025 campaign, McCarthy has teed it up 5 times making the cut in each of those starts and finishing in the Top-20 3 times. His course history at PGA National is rather bleak outside of a T3 back in 2021. I'm not too concerned about the course history because I think this is the best we've seen him look in his career. Historically, McCarthy is a short but accurate driver of the golf ball with above average irons and an elite short game. He is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. We've seen this profile carry over to the start of 2025 for McCarthy, except the irons are looking much sharper. Although he hasn't won on the PGA Tour yet, I think this could be the week he breaks through and finally wins.
Strokes Gained Total - 47th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 120th
Strokes Gained Approach - 48th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 54th
Strokes Gained Putting - 68th
8k Range
Max Greyserman ($8,700)Â - I really don't love the players in this range this week which means the ownership in this range is going to be great. The player I like best here is Max Greyserman who had a phenomenal 2024 season but has had some mixed results to start the 2025 season. In 6 appearances, Greyserman has 3 Top-25 finishes and 3 finishes outside the Top-40. He's played PGA National just once where he finished T47 last year. My concern around Greyserman is his driving accuracy where he consistently loses to the field. Everything else in his game is extremely solid. He has plus distance off the tee, above average iron play, and is a fantastic putter. If he can keep himself out of trouble off the tee, which is a big if, I can see him contending this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 82nd
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 111th
Strokes Gained Approach - 57th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 127th
Strokes Gained Putting - 76th
7k Range
Lee Hodges ($7,400) - If you read the Lee Hodges breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! Another player who profiles nicely for PGA National is Lee Hodges. His 2025 season results are extremely solid with 5 made cuts in 5 appearances, which includes 2 Top-10 finishes. His course history is strong as well with 2 Top-15 finishes in 3 career appearances. He profiles as an accurate driver of the golf ball with great irons and Tour average putting. That alone is reason to back him this week. When I was diving into his strokes gained data in 2025, I noted gaining with the putter, accuracy off the tee, and driving distance in 4 of 5 starts and gaining on approach in all 5 of those starts. I think Hodges' game is coming together nicely and that this is the week he can list his second trophy on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Total - 20th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 102nd
Strokes Gained Approach - 70th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 95th
Strokes Gained Putting - 9th
6k Range
Henrik Norlander ($6,500) - If you read the Henrik Norlander breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! If you didn't think Norlander was going to make his way into my article at a positional ball striking tournament, it must be your first rodeo reading my articles. If that's the case, welcome and thank you for reading! Coming off a great week at the Mexico Open with a finish of T13, I'm excited to fire Norlander up this week at a course that fits his game much better. It's been a brutal start to the 2025 season, aside from last week, where he finished T40 at the Sony Open and then missed the cut the following 3 events. As a big Norlander supporter, this doesn't phase me as he had a solid end to 2024 and had some nice results during the swing season. His profile is a fairway finder with elite approach play. His results are heavily based on his short game cooperation. At this DFS price, I couldn't resist turning back to Norlander.
Strokes Gained Total - 79th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 114th
Strokes Gained Approach - 12th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 117th
Strokes Gained Putting - 151st
Disclaimer
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
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