By: Jake Friedman
Introduction:
The PGA Tour heads Torrey Pines in San Diego, California for this week's Farmers Insurance Open. Before I get deep into the analysis here it's important to note that this tournament starts on Wednesday opposed to the standard Thursday start so make sure you get those lineups and wagers in timely!
2 courses will be played this week, Torrey Pines (North) course and Torrey Pines (South) course. The South course is a par 72 that measures roughly 7,750 yards and The North course is a par 72 that measures roughly 7,250 yards. Both courses feature extremely narrow fairways and thick rough. The South course is much more challenging than The North course which is important to keep in mind if you're planning to play in DFS showdowns this week.
This tournament definitely plays more difficult than your average PGA tournaments and definitely more difficult than the tournaments we've seen to start the 2025 season. Torrey Pines is certainly not a birdie fest and if the weather gets inclement, we can be in for some ugly scorecards. This tournament is generally won in the low teens under par. The focus this week for me, in order of importance, is going to be on mid/long irons, distance off the tee, overall driving, putting on west coast poa grass, and around the green.
DFS:
10k Range
Sungjae Im ($10,000) - I’m turning to the player in this range I project to have the lowest ownership. Coming off of an abysmal approach week, which is extremely uncharacteristic of Sungjae, I’m excited to get an ownership discount on him this week. So far in 2025 Sungjae has finished 3rd at The Sentry and missed the cut last week at The American Express. His course history at Torrey Pines, in 7 appearances, is 6 made cuts that included 2 Top-10’s. Sungjae is an extremely well rounded golfer and although he doesn't bring a huge amount of plus distance off the tee, his approach and short game are generally reliable. After last week, I think a lot of people will be steering clear of Sungjae, but for me that makes him a play this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 22nd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 29th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 99th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 25th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 65th
9k Range
Shane Lowry ($9,000) - Making his 2025 PGA Tour season debut this week, I have high hopes for Lowry this week. He elected to play his swing season on the DPWT, where in 6 starts, he had 5 Top-15 finishes and 1 Top-5 finish. This was backed by his strong play off the tee and on approach, which is what we've come to expect from Lowry. His course history at Torrey Pines is solid with 3 Top-25 finishes in his 5 appearances. It'll come down to Lowry's short game this week, which on these bumpy poa greens, might make it easier for him to keep up with the field in that department. Pair his good form (both recently and at this course) with a projected low ownership and I think he can be a key piece in a winning lineup this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 40th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 53rd
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 12th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 114th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 112th
8k Range
Kurt Kitayama ($8,700) - Kitayama is another player I’m going to try and feast off of this week after disappointing last week at The American Express. In his 2 starts on the PGA Tour in 2025, Kitayama finished T37 at The Sony and T58 last week at The American Express. In both his starts he lost strokes on approach which is generally Kitayama's most reliable asset. His history at Torrey Pines is also abysmal with 2 missed cuts in 2 appearences. I'm hoping this is enough for people to avoid him this week and open the door for us. Kitayama's long term statistics point to him having success here and I'm willing to throw out his poor form and poor course history. His plus distance off the tee and strong approach should suit Torrey Pines. In his 2 starts in 2025, he's gained with the putter in both which is generally where he struggles. If he can get back to himself with the iron play, which we know he is more than capable of, I think Kitayama can contend this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 28th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 16th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 10th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 66th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 171st
7k Range
Gary Woodland ($7,200) - The course fit for Woodland is too good to ignore. Woodland looked to have found some form during the swing season and that carried over to his 2025 season debut where he finished T16 at The Sony. He's teed it up 16 times at Torrey Pines throughout his career, which, if for nothing, means he has some course knowledge and expereience. As you can imagine, his results are a mixed bag, but he's made the cut in 14 of them and has 5 Top-20's. This course was designed for a U.S. Open's which Woodland has in his trophy case. His plus distance off the tee and above average approach align with what's needed to succeed this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 137th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 99th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 47th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 166th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 143rd
6k Range
Harry Higgs ($6,400) - I elected to go with the lowest option that has legitimate upside in this price range this week in case people want to jam players at the top of the board and need a cheap option. Higgs spent the 2024 season on the KFT where he won in back to back tournaments and re-earned his PGA Tour card for the 2025 season. Not too many others in this field can say they've won 2 tournaments in their last 20 starts, especially in the 6k range. Higgs missed the cut at The Sony but bounced back last week at The American Express finishing T34. We only have the strokes gained data at The Stadium course, but Higgs gained across the board besides with the putter. He brings plus distance off the tee week in and week out which is what I'm going to hang my hat on this week for him. His course history at Torrey Pines was actually impressive given his pricetag. In 4 appearances, Higgs made the cut in 3 and has 1 Top-10 finish. I'm shooting my show this week with Harry Higgs.
Strokes Gained Total (2025) - 155th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2025) - 113th
Strokes Gained Approach (2025) - 135th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2025) - 68th
Strokes Gained Putting (2025) - 174th
Outright Betting Card:
Will Zalatoris (+3193*, Risking 0.31 Units)
I project Zalatoris to be the most tipped player this week in the outright market, which is always scary to join in on, but given his recent form and the price I couldn't resist. Zalatoris has started his 2025 campaign with a T26 at The Sentry and a T12 last week at The American Express. In 6 starts at Torrey Pines in his career, Zalatoris has 3 missed cuts and 3 Top-15 finishes. For an outright selection, this is exactly what I'm looking for when it comes to high ceiling and low floor. Why Zalatoris profiles so well here is because he brings consistent plus distance off the tee and approach play. He also bring along a much improved short game. I like Zalatoris's chances to lift his second trophy on the PGA Tour in his career.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 108th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 76th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 67th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 138th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 132nd
Max Homa (+4000, Risking 0.25U)
I'm attempting to be early on Homa's return to form on the PGA Tour and I think the price is right. The back half of the 2024 season was nothing short of underwhelming for Homa, but coming off of a T14 at the Nedbank and a T26 at The Sentry, I think he's finding his form. In those 2 starts, he gained off the tee, on approach, and around the green. Surprisingly, he lost with the putter in both those starts which he generally reliable in. At Torrey Pines, in 2 appearanes, Homa has 5 missed cuts and 4 Top-20's including a win in 2023. What I love about Homa this week is that he tends to play his best golf in California and he is an elite putter on poa grass.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 113th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 164th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 86th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 39th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 106th
Gary Woodland (+10000, Risking 0.10 Units)
If you read the Gary Woodland breakdown in the DFS section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! The course fit for Woodland is too good to ignore. Woodland looked to have found some form during the swing season and that carried over to his 2025 season debut where he finished T16 at The Sony. He's teed it up 16 times at Torrey Pines throughout his career, which, if for nothing, means he has some course knowledge and expereience. As you can imagine, his results are a mixed bag, but he's made the cut in 14 of them and has 5 Top-20's. This course was designed for a U.S. Open's which Woodland has in his trophy case. His plus distance off the tee and above average approach align with what's needed to succeed this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 137th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 99th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 47th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 166th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 143rd
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