By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
The PGA Tour heads to Vallarta, Mexico for this week's Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. The field this week is going to be one of, if not the weakest field we see all year. Many of the PGA Tour stars elect to skip this event but this provides an opportunity for some of the other players on Tour to get some camera time and show us what they've got.
This is your typical resort style golf course that will lead to a lot of birdies this week. It's a par 71 that measures just over 7,400 yards. The greens this week are paspalum which are featured at other tropical PGA Tour events. Having plus distance off the tee is going to be a huge benefit this week. The fairways are wide and the rough is non-penal, but there are a lot of water hazards that can cause some issues off the tee.
Outright Betting Card
Alex Smalley +4500
Smalley has been playing some wonderful golf to start the 2025 season and is going to be one of the most popular outright plays this week. I fully expected his number to open at +3000, so I was happy to add him to my card at this price. Smalley has started the season with 3 Top-25 finishes in 4 starts. In each of those 3 starts, he gained across the board in the major statistical categories. In 3 appearances at this event, Smalley has 2 missed cuts and 1 T6 back in 2022. Over his career, Smalley has been about tour average in the main statistical categories with a slight emphasis on driving distance and approach. I'd argue he is in the top tier of talent for this field and given his great start to the 2025 season, this is a great opportunity for him to lift a trophy come Sunday.
Strokes Gained Total - 3rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 45th
Strokes Gained Approach - 26th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 17th
Strokes Gained Putting - 18th
Jake Knapp +4500
The defending champion of this event felt like another no-brainer given the price next to his name when I loaded the odds this morning. Similar to Smalley, I expected him to open at +3000, so to see +4500 was another first click for me. Knapp has made 6 starts on the PGA Tour this season and made the cut in 5. He's continued to improve week over week and his statistics are continuing to get stronger. His best start came last week at The Genesis Invitational where he finished T17. His game is perfect for Mexico as showcased last year when he won his first PGA Tour event. Knapp brings distance off the tee and his recent approach and putting numbers are both strong. I expect Knapp to contend again this week and defend his victory.
Strokes Gained Total - 99th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 158th
Strokes Gained Approach - 66th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 94th
Strokes Gained Putting - 52nd
Nicolai Hojgaard +5500
Although Rasmus has been making the splashes on the PGA Tour, I'm going to his brother Nicolai at more than double the price. They both play a very similar style of golf being long off the tee and having great approach play and putting. I'd even argue that Nicolai is the more accomplished of the brothers. We've only seen him once on the PGA Tour this season which was a T36 at the WM Phoenix Open. Given how poor his 2024 season was, I'd argue that this was a nice result for Nicolai. During the swing season, he played over on the DPWT where he played some amazing golf. If Nicolai is playing his best golf, he has the ability to lap this field.
Strokes Gained Total - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Off the tee - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Approach - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Around the green - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Putting - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Niklas Norgaard +5500
A name I had circled for this week, I'm excited to roll out Niklas Norgaard, especially at these odds. Norgaard had a fantastic year last year on the DPWT where he picked up his first professional win at the Betfred British Masters. He is an extremely talented golfer and Vidanta is a place where his game can shine. He is extremely long off the tee and is a phenomenal putter. I love that in his PGA Tour debut he gained a lot with his irons and the putter had let him down. If he can keep the iron play up and get back to where he usually is with the putter, I think he will contend this weekend in Mexico.
Strokes Gained Total - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Off the tee - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Approach - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Around the green - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Putting - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Jesper Svensson +7000
Staying on the DPWT roll, Svensson is another player who has the ideal game to succeed here in Mexico. He's made 4 starts on the PGA Tour this season and it's been a complete mix bag. He has 2 missed cuts, a 60th place finish, and a T10. This is pretty on brand for what we saw from Svensson over on the DPWT. I was lucky enough to be on him at his win last season on the DPWT at the Porsche Singapore Classic. Svensson brings plus distance off the tee, decent approach play, and a great putter. What can get him into trouble is his accuracy off the tee because at times he can really spray the ball. If he doesn't get himself into too much trouble with the hazards off the tee, he has the ability to spike and contend this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 20th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 33rd
Strokes Gained Approach - 65th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 61st
Strokes Gained Putting - 68th
Antoine Rozner +9000
I played Rozner in his last start on the DPWT at the Qatar Masters where he finished solo 4th. He's had a lot of success recently on the DPWT and not as much success in his 2 PGA Tour starts in 2025, but I think in a weaker field his talent can shine through. Rozner is a player who can pour birdies in with a hurry. He brings plus distance off the tee and is a fantastic iron player. His short game leaves a lot to be desired, but when it's going the right direction, it really pops for Rozner. He's a 3 time DPWT winner and in a field like this, he can secure his first win on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Total - 176th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 150th
Strokes Gained Approach - 92nd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 181st
Strokes Gained Putting - 139th
Sami Valimaki +30000
Last year's runner up at this event, I was shocked to see a 300/1 price tag next to his name when I loaded up the odds board. Yes, his current form is rather poor, but in a weak field where he found success last year, I couldn't help but add him to my betting card this week. In his 3 starts this season, Valimaki has 2 missed cuts and a T15 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Although the form is lackluster, I do like seeing a T15 mixed in there because it shows he has the ability to have spike performances. His long term profile shows an average driver of the golf ball with a great putter. The rest of his game could definitely use some help, in particular, his irons. Valimaki certainly doesn't check off all the boxes this week, but with a large price tag and a spike finish at this event last year, it's worth a shot.
Strokes Gained Total - 95th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 87th
Strokes Gained Approach - 163rd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 116th
Strokes Gained Putting - 8th
DFS Selections
10k Range
Akshay Bhatia ($10,700) - I'd assume Bhatia will be one of the highest owned in DFS this week due to his success in these tropical events, but I'll be joining in on him at the top. He is the talent of this field and, in my opinion, by a significant margin. Bhatia has started the 2025 season off strong with 2 Top-25 finishes in his 3 appearances. He had one start at this event back in 2023 where he placed solo 4th. Although Akshay doesn't have the desired distance off the tee, he is extremely accurate, and has an extremely strong iron game and short game. It's been enough time to say that Akshay has officially turned the corner with the flat stick and is considered an above average putter. It should come to nobody's surprise this week when he is contending to lift his 3rd trophy on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Total - 43rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 79th
Strokes Gained Approach - 41st
Strokes Gained Around the green - 162nd
Strokes Gained Putting - 12th
9k Range
Taylor Moore ($9,000) - A very solid option at this price point is Taylor Moore. He's played some amazing golf so far in 2025. He's made 5 appearances and has 3 Top-25 finishes. He missed the cut in his only appearance at this event back in 2022, but he's a much better golfer today than he was back then. Moore is a bomber off the tee and also has an amazing short game. His approach play is right about Tour average and has been the most inconsistent part of his game thus far this season. If the irons can cooperate for Moore, he will be contending over the weekend at Vidanta.
Strokes Gained Total - 59th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 27th
Strokes Gained Approach - 116th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 10th
Strokes Gained Putting - 141st
8k Range
Niklas Norgaard ($8,400) - If you read the Niklas Norgaard breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! A name I had circled for this week, I'm excited to roll out Niklas Norgaard, especially at these odds. Norgaard had a fantastic year last year on the DPWT where he picked up his first professional win at the Betfred British Masters. He is an extremely talented golfer and Vidanta is a place where his game can shine. He is extremely long off the tee and is a phenomenal putter. I love that in his PGA Tour debut he gained a lot with his irons and the putter had let him down. If he can keep the iron play up and get back to where he usually is with the putter, I think he will contend this weekend in Mexico.
Strokes Gained Total - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Off the tee - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Approach - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Around the green - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
Strokes Gained Putting - N/A, no stats available on PGA website for 2025 season
7k Range
Antoine Rozner ($7,300) - If you read the Antoine Rozner breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! I played Rozner in his last start on the DPWT at the Qatar Masters where he finished solo 4th. He's had a lot of success recently on the DPWT and not as much success in his 2 PGA Tour starts in 2025, but I think in a weaker field his talent can shine through. Rozner is a player who can pour birdies in with a hurry. He brings plus distance off the tee and is a fantastic iron player. His short game leaves a lot to be desired, but when it's going the right direction, it really pops for Rozner. He's a 3 time DPWT winner and in a field like this, he can secure his first win on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Total - 176th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 150th
Strokes Gained Approach - 92nd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 181st
Strokes Gained Putting - 139th
6k Range
Luke List ($6,900) - A name that stuck out to me as a bomber in this range that his PGA Tour wins under his belt, I think List is a great option here. It's been a rather bleak start to the 2025 season for List. In 4 starts, his best finish was a T36 in his last appearance at the WM Phoenix Open. He's only played the Mexico Open once in his career and he missed the cut back in 2023. A promising sign I've seen in List's last few starts is that he's been very solid with the putter. He is a bomber off the tee which is important at Vidanta. It'll come down to his irons which have been a pain point for some time. I'm hoping the rest of the game can elevate List to a made cut and some DFS points to support a winning lineup.
Strokes Gained Total - 128th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 32nd
Strokes Gained Approach - 167th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 141st
Strokes Gained Putting - 55th
Disclaimer
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
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Always gamble responsibly.
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