By: Jake Friedman
Introduction:
Welcome back to the PGA Tour! We start the 2025 calendar year in Hawaii, as we do every year, for the Sentry Tournament of Champions (ToC). This tournament is hosted at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in Hawaii. The Plantation Course is a par 73 that measures roughly 7600 yards. As you can see in the name, this is a resort course which features wide fairways, large greens, and almost no penalty for missing the fairway. We've seen winning scores as low as -34 (Cam Smith, 2022) but mostly in the mid to high 20's, so expect a birdie fest. With that being said, the 2 biggest weights in my model this week are approach and putting.
DFS:
10k Range
Xander Schauffele ($11,000) - What an incredible 2024 calendar year it was for Xander Schauffele winning both the PGA Championship and The Open. If Scottie Scheffeler wasn't in the picture, Xander's season would be much more heavily talked about, but it feels like it's almost gone under the radar. Xander is a course proof player that is above average in the 6 overall metrics I measure which can be seen below. He won this tournament back in 2019 and has 2 additional Top 5's, 1 Top 10, 1 Top 15, and 1 Top 25. He has proven success at this course and in this tournament and coming off of his best season yet on the PGA Tour, I'm expecting a big result from Xander this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 2nd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 10th
Strokes Gained Approach - 6th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 42nd
Strokes Gained Putting - 12th
9k Range
Sam Burns ($9,000) - I was on Burns quite a bit last season but if you weren't paying close attention to him he could've easily fallen off your radar. For the minimal chatter around his 2024 season, he actually played quite well despite not winning. Burns is a solid all around player with his biggest strength being the putter which is important for a birdie fest like we have this week. In his 3 appearences at this tournaments, Burns has 1 Top 20 and 2 Top 35's which isn't amazing, but also isn't terrible. He ended last season on a bit of a heater with 5 straight Top 15 finishes and I'm looking for him this week to come through in DFS at a relative DFS ownership discount.
Strokes Gained Total - 13th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 44th
Strokes Gained Approach - 73rd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 80th
Strokes Gained Putting - 14th
8k Range
Russell Henley ($8,300) - When I think of Russell Henley, I think of above average consistency. He's a cut maker that can have trouble getting across the finish line on Sundays despite having 4 PGA Tour wins in his career. Henley missed 1 cut in his last 25 starts and had an array of top finishes without getting across the finish line. Despite being short off the tee, Henley has a well rounded game. In his 5 appearences at this tournament, Henley has 1 Top 5 and 1 Top 20 which is decent. I think he will be averagely owned in DFS but has the upside and consistency I'm looking for in a supporting cast.
Strokes Gained Total - 15th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 106th
Strokes Gained Approach - 33rd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 21st
Strokes Gained Putting - 39th
7k Range
Taylor Pendrith ($7,500) - My favorite play this week for DFS is Pendrith at this pricepoint. Pendrith was playing some phenomical golf from the midway point of the 2024 season through the end, including his first PGA Tour victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Pendrith brings a skillset that isn't too common on the PGA Tour, being above average in driving distance but also being an elite putter. I was on him a bunch last season and will most likely be all over him again this season. He is making his debut at Kapalua this year but the skillset he brings should align well with the course. I don't have a prediction on his ownership, but I will be hammering him in my lineups this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 18th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 70th
Strokes Gained Approach - 68th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 118th
Strokes Gained Putting - 5th
6k Range
Will Zalatoris ($6,900) - Death, taxes, and Jake finding a way to get some skin on Will Zalatoris in any way possible. You have to take this with a grain of salt because I am one of his biggest supporters, but in the 6k range I think there is immense upside. Coming back from injury last season it was a bit of a bumpy road trying to get back into the swing of things for Zalatoris. The one bright spot was that his putting seemed to have improved. The last couple times we saw Will it seemed like he was getting his game back with 3 Top 20 finishes in his last 4. I don't put much stock into his 2024 numbers since he was coming back from injury but I've included them below. In his only appearence at this tournament, he finished T11 gaining on the greens and surprisingly losing with the irons which he is generally strong with. There's too high of a ceiling with too low of a price to not take a chance here.
Strokes Gained Total - 108th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 76th
Strokes Gained Approach - 67th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 138th
Strokes Gained Putting - 132nd
Outright Betting Card:
Sahith Theegala +3000 (Risking 0.30U) - Last years runner up at this event, highlighted by a Thursday 64 and Sunday 63, I don't need any added motivation to go back to one of my favorite golfers on the PGA Tour. I love to roll Theegala out almost weekly, but especially at events where pouring in birdies is a necessity. Theegala didn't get a win in 2024 but in typical Sahith fashion, he came close on multiple occassions. In 2024, Theegala improved his driving which he very much needed to do. In his 2 appearences at this tournament he finished 33rd and 2nd. His style of play has shown to have success at this tournament and I'm hoping he can start 2025 off perfectly by lifting a trophy on Sunday.
Strokes Gained Total - 16th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 28th
Strokes Gained Approach - 44th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 81st
Strokes Gained Putting - 48th
Taylor Pendirth +5500 (Risking 0.18U) - If you read the DFS section, no need to re-read this unless you want to, it's the same write up. Pendrith was playing some phenomical golf from the midway point of the 2024 season through the end, including his first PGA Tour victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Pendrith brings a skillset that isn't too common on the PGA Tour, being above average in driving distance but also being an elite putter. I was on him a bunch last season and will most likely be all over him again this season. He is making his debut at Kapalua this year but the skillset he brings should align well with the course.
Strokes Gained Total - 18th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 70th
Strokes Gained Approach - 68th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 118th
Strokes Gained Putting - 5th
Alex Noren +7000 (Risking 0.14U) - Not a glourious name by anymeans but his game aligns rather well here. Although he lacks when it comes to driving distance, Noren is reliable when it comes to approach and short game which will be pivotal this week for a birdie fest. His win equity on the PGA Tour can be called into question as he hasn't crossed the finish line just yet, but he is a 10 time winner on the DPWT so he does have it in him. Similar to Pendrith, he is making his debut at Kapalua this year but I like the game he brings and think he can lift the troophy come Sunday for his first PGA Tour win.
Strokes Gained Total - 12th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (OTT) - 79th
Strokes Gained Approach - 43rd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 8th
Strokes Gained Putting - 54th
Disclaimer:
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
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