By: Jake Friedman
Introduction:
The PGA Tour heads to La Quinta, California for this week's The American Express. This tournament has featured the 3 course rotation of La Quinta Country Club, PGA West's Stadium Course, and PGA West's Nicklaus Tournament Course since 2016. Those 3 courses will be played Thursday through Saturday after which the cut will be made. The remaining players will fight to lift the trophy on Sunday at PGA West's Stadium Course. The field this week is very strong so we should be in for a great week of golf.
It's important to note that this year PGA West's Stadium Course, which will host 2 rounds for each golfer if they make the cut, has undergone renovations. For starters, all of the greens and some of the bunkers are completely new this year. I expect the greens to be extremely firm and difficult for players to keep their golf balls on there. I'll be putting a little extra weight into around the green play this week for that reason.
In my opinion, historically, the recipe for success at this golf tournament, in order, is approach, putting, off the tee, and around the green. This year with the new greens and bunkers, like I mentioned previously, I will be putting more weight into around the green but I think the order of importance remains the same.
8 of the previous 9 champions of this event have teed it up in at least 1 of the first 2 events of the season (The Sentry ToC and/or The Sony Open). The 1 player to break this trend is defending champion Nick Dunlap.
DFS:
10k Range
Sungjae Im ($10,300) - With only 2 options left in the 10k range with Xander Schauffele withdrawing, I'm going with the cheaper of the 2 options in Sungjae Im. Sungjae brings an extremely well rounded game week in and week out. His one set back, if you even want to call it that, is that he's about Tour average in driving distance. Everything else is well above average. He started his 2025 campaign with a solo 3rd at The Sentry ToC. To end the 2024 season, Im rattled off 4 straight Top-15 finishes. He's played this tournament 6 times and has finished Top-25 or better in all 6. The ownership is going to be rather high and I think you can succeed in DFS skipping the 10k range all together, but if you're looking for an option here I prefer Im over Thomas.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 22nd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 29th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 99th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 25th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 65th
9k Range
Patrick Cantlay ($9,600) - I thought for sure Cantlay was going to be in the 10k range this week so to see him in the mid 9k range is a no brainer play for me. Taking away his horrendous Thursday at The Sentry ToC, Cantlay brought himself right back into contention and managed to finish T15. His 7 tournaments to close out his 2024 campaign were all Top-25 finishes or better. In his last 5 appearances at this tournament, with this course rotation, Cantlay has 3 Top-10 finishes. Oftentimes with Cantlay it'll come down to his off the tee play as he brings an above average approach and short game week in and week out. I'm not sure how the ownership is going to shake out in this 9k range but I will be starting a couple of my lineups with Cantlay as the headline player.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 38th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 61st
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 102nd
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 35th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 53rd
8k Range
Will Zalatoris ($8,400) - As we know, I am a huge fan of Will Zalatoris. What I saw from him at the end of his 2024 campaign and the start of his 2025 campaign is enough for me to say that he is almost back to form. I'm on him this week in both DFS and outright in an attempt to be early on him. Zalatoris finished T26 at The Sentry ToC where he was lingering towards the top of the leaderboard for 54 holes. He's made the cut in his last 5 appearances and along with the T26 at The Sentry ToC, he finished Top-20 in 3 of his last 5 starts. Zalatoris has proven to have turned his short game woes around. He's gained with the putter in 4 of his last 5 starts. He's made the cut in all 3 of his appearances at this tournament highlighted by a T6 in 2022. If Zalatoris can string it together for 4 straight rounds, I like him to get back in the winners circle this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 108th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 76th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 67th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 138th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 132nd
7k Range
Rickie Fowler ($7,500) - With the low ownership projection I have for Fowler this week, I think this is a great play in DFS. His 2024 campaign was mostly a disaster so his strokes gained data is painful to look at. What I'm hanging my hat on is the last couple starts in 2024 we saw from Fowler. He finished T16 at The Sanderson, T23 at The Shriners, and solo 4th at The Zozo. In those starts, Fowler was accurate off the tee, and very solid with the irons and putter. His history at this tournament is a bit of a mixed bag, but he does have 4 made cuts, 1 Top-10, and 1 Top-25 in 7 appearances. I think Fowler can be a contest winning piece in DFS lineups this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 134th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 137th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 124th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 121st
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 66th
6k Range
Henrik Norlander ($6,800) - Death, taxes, and me writing up Henrik Norlander another week. He is an elite iron player who puts the ball in the fairway. This skillset is a recipe for success when all you need in the short game to get hot. Last week at The Sony Open, that's exactly what we saw and it was those trustworthy irons that let him down. Norlander had a decent swing season to close the 2024 year and finished The Sony with a T37. Norlander has made the cut in his last 4 appearances at this tournament and is highlighted by a T12 in 2021. If Norlander can keep the short game right where it was last week and get the irons back to his normal level, I think he can contend.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 58th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 103rd
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 11th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 99th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 131st
Outright Betting Card:
Will Zalatoris (+6000) - If you read the Will Zalatoris breakdown in the DFS section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! As we know, I am a huge fan of Will Zalatoris. What I saw from him at the end of his 2024 campaign and the start of his 2025 campaign is enough for me to say that he is almost back to form. I'm on him this week in both DFS and outright in an attempt to be early on him. Zalatoris finished T26 at The Sentry ToC where he was lingering towards the top of the leaderboard for 54 holes. He's made the cut in his last 5 appearances and along with the T26 at The Sentry ToC, he finished Top-20 in 3 of his last 5 starts. Zalatoris has proven to have turned his short game woes around. He's gained with the putter in 4 of his last 5 starts. He's made the cut in all 3 of his appearances at this tournament highlighted by a T6 in 2022. If Zalatoris can string it together for 4 straight rounds, I like him to get back in the winners circle this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 108th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 76th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 67th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 138th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 132nd
Ben Griffin (+7500) - I believe this is the first time I am ever betting Ben Griffin in the outright market so this is a new write up for me. His 2024 campaign consisted of multiple tournaments where he was in contention, which for a relatively new PGA Tour player, is extermely valuable. Each rep in contention builds the scar tissue that builds to eventually get a player over the finish line and lifting a trophy for the first time on the PGA Tour. To close his 2024 season, Griffin had 4 straight Top-25 finishes. To start his 2025 campaign, Griffin finished T-45 at The Sony where he was slightly in the green across the board besides with the flat stick. In his 2 starts at this tournament Griffin has finished T32 and T9. Griffin brings above average irons and short game each week. His driver can be a bit of a disaster at times but it seems like it's gotten more consistent. The number is too big for me not to take my chances on an extremely talented golfer.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 33rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 130th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 34th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 23rd
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 52nd
Henrik Norlander (+25000) - If you read the Henrik Norlander breakdown in the DFS section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! Death, taxes, and me writing up Henrik Norlander another week. He is an elite iron player who puts the ball in the fairway. This skillset is a recipe for success when all you need in the short game to get hot. Last week at The Sony Open, that's exactly what we saw and it was those trustworthy irons that let him down. Norlander had a decent swing season to close the 2024 year and finished The Sony with a T37. Norlander has made the cut in his last 4 appearances at this tournament and is highlighted by a T12 in 2021. If Norlander can keep the short game right where it was last week and get the irons back to his normal level, I think he can contend.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 58th
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 103rd
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 11th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 99th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 131st
Disclaimer:
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
Gambling involves financial risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Always gamble responsibly.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional organization or hotline in your area.