By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
The PGA Tour heads back to Torrey Pines in San Diego, California for this week's The Genesis Invitational. This is an elevated event with a limited field of 72 golfers, but there will be a cut made of either the top 50 golfers or if you are within 10 strokes of the leader after Friday's round is concluded.
Dissimilar to a couple weeks ago when this course was played for the Farmers Insurance Open, only Torrey Pines (South) course will be played for all 4 rounds. The South course is a par 72 that measures roughly 7,750 yards. It features extremely narrow fairways and thick rough. The South course is the more challenging of the two courses we saw featured a couple weeks ago.
This course definitely plays more difficult than your average PGA tournaments. Torrey Pines is certainly not a birdie fest and if the weather gets inclement, we can be in for some ugly scorecards. This tournament is generally won in the low teens under par. The focus this week for me, in order of importance, is going to be on mid/long irons, distance off the tee, overall driving, putting on west coast poa grass, and around the green.
Outright Betting Card
Taylor Pendrith (+4500)
Pendrith has been pounding the top of leaderboards week in and week out for his last 20 starts. To start the 2025 season, Pendrith is 4 for 4 in made cuts and has 3 Top-15 finishes. Just a couple weeks ago on this course he finished T7 where he gained nicely in each category besides with the putter. His course history is rather strong. Pendrith has a T9 and a T16 in addition to his T7 a couple weeks ago. Over the long term, Pendrith brings a very unique skill set to the game. He is long off the tee, has strong iron play, and is a great putter. I think that is the perfect recipe for success this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 16th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 3rd
Strokes Gained Approach - 38th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 55th
Strokes Gained Putting - 128th
Will Zalatoris (+5000)
Zalatoris thrives at difficult golf courses and that is exactly what's on the menu this week at Torrey Pines. I fired him up a couple weeks ago at this tournament where he withdrew before it started. Zalatoris has started the 2025 season going 3/3 in made cuts with the highlight being a T12 at The American Express. He has a strong course history here as well with 3 Top-15 finishes including a second place finish in 2022 losing in a playoff to Luke List. Zalatoris continues to elevate his game year over year being above average in all the main statistical categories. What I love most about Zalatoris is he has put a lot of time into improving the putter and that has shown by him gaining about a half a stroke per round in 2 of his first 3 starts this season. This is the type of tournament Zalatoris has the capability of winning.
Strokes Gained Total - 65th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 75th
Strokes Gained Approach - 77th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 95th
Strokes Gained Putting - 62nd
Viktor Hovland (+5500)
It's been an interesting ride for Viktor Hovland between the 2024 season and the start of the 2025 season. He was one of my picks for superstar breakout in 2024 and he fell well short of my expectations. He's continued that underwhelming play in the 2025 season which is why his odds are about double what they would've been at this point last year. Hovland's last start at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was solid with a finish of T22. He gained nicely off the tee and on approach and struggled with the short game. He has a T2 at Torrey Pines back in 2021. I'm banking on Hovland building off of his recent T22 finish and having the course history to contend this weekend.
Strokes Gained Total - 100th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 51st
Strokes Gained Approach - 70th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 146th
Strokes Gained Putting - 123rd
Min Woo Lee (+6500)
Min Woo Lee has been cooking to start the 2025 season. In his 2 starts so far he's finished inside the Top 20 in both and has gained strongly in different areas throughout each of those starts. I'm looking to Min Woo to piece it all together this week. He only has 1 start at Torrey Pines in his career which was a T43 last year. Min Woo brings plus distance off the tee, above average irons, and a crafty short game. If he can control the ball off the tee and not spray the ball too much, he definitely can be successful at this event.
Strokes Gained Total - 8th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 23rd
Strokes Gained Approach - 65th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 4th
Strokes Gained Putting - 109th
Adam Scott (+8000)
Aussie #2 on my betting card this week is Adam Scott. He is playing some very solid golf to start the year with finishes of T15 at The Sentry and T22 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Scott also has finishes of solo 2nd and T10 at Torrey Pines in his career which is great to see paired with the recent form. The irons have been scorching hot which is wonderful to see. Scott brings a similar profile to the others I have on my card which is plus distance off the tee and above average irons and short game. The accuracy off the tee to start the year has been a little wild, but if that can stay in check I think he can win this tournament.
Strokes Gained Total - 44th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 82nd
Strokes Gained Approach - 31st
Strokes Gained Around the green - 62nd
Strokes Gained Putting - 111th
Daniel Berger (+11000)
Coming off a T2 finish last week, I had to keep Berger on the card again this week at a course he's had success at in his career. Berger is back and playing consistently on the PGA Tour after an extended hiatus. It's been a bit of a rollercoaster when it comes to finishes, but contending last week and finishing T2 is extremely promising for his outlook on the season. He has 3 Top-25 finishes at Torrey Pines which is highlighted by a T7 at the U.S. Open played here back in 2021. In 2025, Berger has gained in both driving distance and accuracy in all 4 starts and has gained with the irons and putter in 2 of those 4. Last week showed what he could do when everything is clicking for him and I'm hoping he can do that again this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 15th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 7th
Strokes Gained Approach - 43rd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 21st
Strokes Gained Putting - 125th
Cam Davis (+13000)
Aussie #3 on the card this week is Cam Davis who has started the 2025 season off strong. In 4 appearances, he's made the cut in 3 of 4 and finished Top-20 or better in each of those 3 made cuts. The reason why his odds are so deep is because his course history is nothing to write home about. In his 6 appearances at Torrey Pines, he made the cut in 5 of 6 but his best finish was a T32 back in 2021. Cam Davis has the same player profile as the other Aussies on my card, plus distance off the tee with above average irons and short game. He is an elite around the green player which can come in handy this week. Just like the other Aussies, if he can control the ball off the tee this week, he can win this tournament.
Strokes Gained Total - 13th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 154th
Strokes Gained Approach - 25th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 9th
Strokes Gained Putting - 30th
Gary Woodland (+13000)
Woodland is another player I bet a couple weeks ago at this course who withdrew before the tournament started. It was a no-brainer for me to go back to him again this week after a great start to the season. In each of his 3 starts this season he's finished inside the Top-25 and has nearly gained across the board in each start. Woodland is back and primed to get back in the winners circle. What better time than the present at a course he has 5 Top-20 finishes at. Woodland is a bomber off the tee who has gained on the field in accuracy in each of his 3 starts this season. The short game is where Woodland tends to struggle and he's gotten that to about even in each start this year. If he can find something with the putter this week I am confident Woodland has the capability of winning at long odds.
Strokes Gained Total - 18th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 18th
Strokes Gained Approach - 30th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 100th
Strokes Gained Putting - 89th
Nick Taylor (+15000)
I couldn't pass up the opportunity to take Nick Taylor at this number. Not the ideal fit for this course in my opinion, but we saw Rory take down the Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he objectively didn't profile well at. Taylor, like almost everyone else I've previewed, has been playing some great golf in 2025. He won the Sony Open and has 2 additional Top-25 finishes this year. He's made the cut in his last 4 appearances at Torrey Pines, but doesn't have any flashy finishes to boast. Taylor is short off the tee which isn't what I would look for here, but he is extremely accurate and the irons and short game have been great to start the season. The odds simply do not reflect how well he is playing at the moment.
Strokes Gained Total - 20th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 101st
Strokes Gained Approach - 8th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 113th
Strokes Gained Putting - 53rd
DFS Selections
10k Range
Rory McIlroy ($10,900) - Although I will probably opt to skip this range due to the high ownership of each person in this range, if I had to choose someone it would be Rory. Coming off a win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he did not profile well at all, it just goes to show you that he has the ability to win any time he chooses to tee the ball up. That marks 2 wins in his last 3 starts between the PGA Tour and DPWT. Rory is well above average when it comes to all areas of the game. He can be a bit inaccurate off the tee which hasn't been an issue to start the season clearly. His worst finish at Torrey Pines in his 4 starts is a T16. He is far cheaper than Scottie Scheffler and just as elite.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 3rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 4th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 52nd
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 28th
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 59th
9k Range
Taylor Pendrith ($9,000) - If you read the Taylor Pendrith breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! Pendrith has been pounding the top of leaderboards week in and week out for his last 20 starts. To start the 2025 season, Pendrith is 4 for 4 in made cuts and has 3 Top-15 finishes. Just a couple weeks ago on this course he finished T7 where he gained nicely in each category besides with the putter. His course history is rather strong. Pendrith has a T9 and a T16 in addition to his T7 a couple weeks ago. Over the long term, Pendrith brings a very unique skill set to the game. He is long off the tee, has strong iron play, and is a great putter. I think that is the perfect recipe for success this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 16th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 3rd
Strokes Gained Approach - 38th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 55th
Strokes Gained Putting - 128th
8k Range
Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,300) - Unlike his brother, Rasmus has transitioned to the PGA Tour flawlessly from the DPWT. He has a very similar stat profile to Pendrith which is why I love him in this range. His first 2 starts on the PGA Tour were a T22 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a T12 last week at the WM Phoenix Open. Rasmus is a bomber off the tee with above average irons and putter. He can be a little wild off the tee at times and his around the green play is consistently underwhelming. He will be making his Torrey Pines debut this week which might steer a few people away from him, but he has the right style of play to continue his great run of form.
Strokes Gained Total - 11th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 22nd
Strokes Gained Approach - 24th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 70th
Strokes Gained Putting - 74th
7k Range
Will Zalatoris ($7,900) - If you read the Will Zalatoris breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! Zalatoris thrives at difficult golf courses and that is exactly what's on the menu this week at Torrey Pines. I fired him up a couple weeks ago at this tournament where he withdrew before it started. Zalatoris has started the 2025 season going 3/3 in made cuts with the highlight being a T12 at The American Express. He has a strong course history here as well with 3 Top-15 finishes including a second place finish in 2022 losing in a playoff to Luke List. Zalatoris continues to elevate his game year over year being above average in all the main statistical categories. What I love most about Zalatoris is he has put a lot of time into improving the putter and that has shown by him gaining about a half a stroke per round in 2 of his first 3 starts this season. This is the type of tournament Zalatoris has the capability of winning.
Strokes Gained Total - 65th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 75th
Strokes Gained Approach - 77th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 95th
Strokes Gained Putting - 62nd
6k Range
Matt Fitzpatrick ($6,800) - I'm hoping people steer clear of the 2022 U.S. Open winner this week to open the door for me (and maybe you if you've read this far!). Fitzpatrick has gradually declined to start the season opening with a T24 at The Sentry and ending most recently with a missed cut on the number at the WM Phoenix Open. Despite this decline, the numbers show him gaining on the field off the tee and on approach which is extremely important. Over the course of his career he's proven to be an elite putter and above average around the green player. He got crushed on the greens last week at the WM Phoenix Open which I am happy to throw out the door. He's only played at Torrey Pines once in his career, which was the 2021 U.S. Open where he finished T55. I'm hopeful Fitzpatrick can provide a low owned, high finish this week in DFS.
Strokes Gained Total - 83rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 27th
Strokes Gained Approach - 119th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 110th
Strokes Gained Putting - 103rd
Disclaimer
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
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