By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
The PGA Tour stays in Florida and heads over to TPC Sawgrass for this week's The Players Championship. This tournament is widely regarded as the "5th Major". The field this week is the best that the PGA Tour has to offer with the likes of Scottie Scheffler (2x defending champion of this event), Rory McIlroy (1x winner of this event), Xander Schauffele (2x runner up of this event), and many more.
TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 that measures roughly 7,350 yards. This is important to note as the course has been lengthened almost 100 yards from last year. The grass type on the greens are overseeded poa. There have been some notable changes to this golf course this year that should lead to more difficulty for the players. One important change to note is the rough has grown out an extra half inch from what we saw last year. Some additional changes to note, the tee box on the second hole was pushed back roughly 15 yards, the sixth hole now has a tree planted in the middle of the fairway, and the fourteenth hole now has some trouble on the right side of the fairway.
The Players Championship is one of the most difficult tournaments played each year on the PGA Tour. It is extremely demanding off the tee and has proven difficult on approach and around the green throughout its history. It should come as no surprise whatsoever that Scottie is the 2 time defending champion of this event as it requires an extremely well rounded and complete golf game.
Outright Betting Selections
Ludvig Aberg +2000
This might be my first time betting Aberg but I can promise you it will not be my last. With his quick rise to stardom on the PGA Tour, his odds quickly followed suit so it's important to pick and choose your spots wisely with him. I think The Players Championship and TPC Sawgrass are perfect for Aberg. Aberg won The Genesis Invitational just a couple weeks ago and followed that up with a T22 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite a Saturday 77 (+5). Last year in his debut at The Players Championship, Aberg finished 8th and was held back by a cold putter. He is a wonderful driver of the golf ball, has an elite approach game, and is above Tour average in his short game. The 25 year old Swede has already made a name for himself on the PGA Tour and is a superstar. I think he lifts his second trophy of the season this week at TPC Sawgrass and has his biggest career win to date.
Strokes Gained Total - 59th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 21st
Strokes Gained Approach - 91st
Strokes Gained Around the green - 122nd
Strokes Gained Putting - 98th
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Full disclosure, I placed this bet back in January and with his lingering neck pain resurfacing last week... I love this play even more. Just kidding, but I feel like whenever I hear Hideki isn't at 100% he comes out and plays his best golf (whether that is actually true or not). It feels like Hideki hasn't been playing well after starting the 2025 season with a win at The Sentry, but that's false. Hideki has finished Top-25 in his last 3 starts which I would consider to be solid form. His history at TPC Sawgrass is incredible with 7 Top-25 finishes in 10 career starts. Matsuyama's stat profile shows a Tour average player off the tee with elite irons and a great short game. When Hideki is hitting his irons well, the ball rarely lands outside of 15 feet from the pin and he gives himself tons of opportunities to score. The cherry on top of all of this is the age-old question I asked myself almost every tournament last season - Can this player go toe to toe with Scottie Scheffler on any given Sunday? The answer for Hideki is yes.
Strokes Gained Total - 6th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 114th
Strokes Gained Approach - 17th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 15th
Strokes Gained Putting - 34th
Russell Henley +5000
After coming through for me last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I couldn't help but turn back to him again this week. It's extremely rare on the PGA Tour to win in back to back starts, but I think Henley is a great candidate to do it this week. Henley is 6 for 6 in made cuts for the 2025 season and is coming off a win last week as mentioned previously. Henley is yet to finish worse than Top-40 during the 2025 season. For one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour, his history at TPC Sawgrass is underwhelming. In 12 career appearances, he only has 4 Top-25 finishes. Although the course history is lackluster, 2 of those Top-25 finishes came recently in 2022 and 2023. Henley is one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour and is someone I would consider to be course proof. He lacks distance off the tee, but everything else is well above the Tour average. He is an incredibly accurate driver of the golf ball, has elite iron play, and has a fantastic short game. He is playing some of the best golf of his career to start the 2025 season, and after taking down the biggest win in his career last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I think that will be short lived after he wins The Players Championship this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 6th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 99th
Strokes Gained Approach - 24th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 28th
Strokes Gained Putting - 14th
Daniel Berger +7000
Berger has 5 Top-25 finishes in 7 appearances in the 2025 PGA Tour season. I think we can confidently say Daniel Berger is back. Although he hasn't played The Players Championship recently, he has 3 career Top-15 finishes at this event. Going off of his 7 starts this season, the game appears to be extremely well rounded with no glaring weakness in any area. If you had to pick areas of improvement it would be distance off the tee and putting but even those have been solid. What a story it would be for Daniel Berger to win The Players Championship. I think that storyline is realistic given his current form and the odds are too deep to pass up.
Strokes Gained Total - 12th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 27th
Strokes Gained Approach - 51st
Strokes Gained Around the green - 27th
Strokes Gained Putting - 76th
DFS Selections
10k Range
Xander Schauffele $11,100 - After coming back from injury last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and just barely keeping his made cut streak alive, I'm turning to Xander in DFS this week at an appealing ownership percentage. Last week was just his second time teeing it up in the 2025 season as he had been dealing with a rib injury. Continuously throughout the week he noted that the injury had not held him back in any way and that he is feeling physically well. He managed to finish T40 which I don't put much weight into. Now Xander comes to TPC Sawgrass where he's finished runner up twice in his career. Xander is an extremely well rounded golfer who brings the complete game you are looking for here. He is long and relatively accurate off the tee and has elite irons and short game. If the ownership comes in as low as I'm projecting, Xander is a must play in DFS this week.
Strokes Gained Total (2024) - 2nd
Strokes Gained Off the tee (2024) - 10th
Strokes Gained Approach (2024) - 6th
Strokes Gained Around the green (2024) - 42nd
Strokes Gained Putting (2024) - 12th
9k Range
Daniel Berger $9,600 - I did a double take at the price to make sure I was seeing this right when I saw Daniel Berger's name next to it. I know he has been playing some incredible golf, but some of the golfers priced lower than him could be considered to be much more appealing. Which is exactly why I am writing him up right now. I'm not sure where the ownership will come in, but regardless, I think he has a great week. If you read the Daniel Berger breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! Berger has 5 Top-25 finishes in 7 appearances in the 2025 PGA Tour season. I think we can confidently say Daniel Berger is back. Although he hasn't played The Players Championship recently, he has 3 career Top-15 finishes at this event. Going off of his 7 starts this season, the game appears to be extremely well rounded with no glaring weakness in any area. If you had to pick areas of improvement it would be distance off the tee and putting but even those have been solid. I think there is plenty of value in Berger this week in DFS.
Strokes Gained Total - 12th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 27th
Strokes Gained Approach - 51st
Strokes Gained Around the green - 27th
Strokes Gained Putting - 76th
8k Range
Maverick McNealy $8,900 - After missing the cut last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and letting his backers down in both the outright and DFS markets, I think this is a great time to jump in on McNealy. He is 6 for 7 on made cuts during the 2025 season and has 3 Top-10 finishes. In 4 career starts at The Players Championship, he has 3 made cuts and 1 Top-10 finish. His stat profile shows a Tour average driver of the golf ball with great irons and a great short game. To me it feels like McNealy is a high ceiling, low floor play in DFS this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 14th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 71st
Strokes Gained Approach - 13th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 154th
Strokes Gained Putting - 20th
7k Range
Akshay Bhatia $7,000 - I'm turning to Akshay Bhatia in this range who missed the cut last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in hopes of getting a nice ownership discount. Before his missed cut last week, it looked like Akshay was rounding out into some nice form with back to back Top-10 finishes. He missed the cut at his only appearance at this tournament last year, but he is a completely different golfer now. At the time of writing this article, last week statistics haven't been posted yet, but in his first 6 starts on the season, Bhatia gained with the putter and in accuracy off the tee in all 6. He also gained on approach in 5 of those 6. He's transformed his game into a fairway finder with a solid putter. He also has above Tour average irons and around the green play. I think Bhatia has the potential for a big week this week at TPC Sawgrass and I don't think the ownership percentage is going to be large.
Strokes Gained Total - 25th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 80th
Strokes Gained Approach - 45th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 133rd
Strokes Gained Putting - 12th
6k Range
Rickie Fowler $6,600 - I'm turning to the 2015 champion of this event in this price range. I think there will be a little of a higher ownership around Fowler this week due to his previous victory here, but I'm still going to be playing him. Fowler has made the cut in 4 of his 5 starts during the 2025 season and has 2 Top-25 finishes. He's also played this tournament 14 times in his career and has won it once and has 2 additional Top-15 finishes. His stat profile shows a Tour average player in each of the main statistical categories. Fowler has been driving the golf ball wonderfully this season and I think it'll come down to him having a spike week with his irons or with his putter. Regardless, I think there is enough potential upside to play Fowler this week.
Strokes Gained Total - 114th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 41st
Strokes Gained Approach - 95th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 171st
Strokes Gained Putting - 107th
5k Range
Jacob Bridgeman $5,300 - If you're looking for a diamond in the rough, look no further. I think once people see Michael Kim at $5,900 they will stop scrolling which will leave the door open here. Bridgeman has found himself in some nice form recently with back to back Top-15 finishes. He's making his debut at TPC Sawgrass this week which is why the price is what it is in DFS. His stat profile shows a Tour average iron player with a great short game. His off the tee game is a little concerning, but in the 2025 season, he's gained off the tee in 5 of his 7 starts. I think Bridgeman can have a solid finish this week and be a piece of a winning lineup.
Strokes Gained Total - 21st
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 102nd
Strokes Gained Approach - 70th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 34th
Strokes Gained Putting - 15th
Disclaimer
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
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