By: Jake Friedman
Introduction
The PGA Tour heads to Phoenix, Arizona for this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open. TPC Scottsdale is the home of The People's Open where the crowd is loud and rowdy which is a rare sight to see in golf. There's a reason why this event draws a rather strong field for a non-elevated event. This tournament isn't just fun for the fans, the players get involved and also have a great experience at this event.
TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 that measures roughly 7,250 yards. The course features large greens that are both firm and fast. Overall, these are some of the easiest greens to putt on through the course of the PGA Tour season. The fairways can be narrow in landing areas but the surrounding rough isn't too penal. Where players can get into trouble is the water hazards on some holes as well as the native area that have cacti.
Outright Betting Card
Sam Burns +2800
Sam Burns has started his 2025 PGA Tour campaign off strong with finishes of T8 at The Sentry, T29 at The American Express, and T22 last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The 5 time PGA Tour winner also carries a strong course history. In 2021 he finished T22, 2023 he finished T6, and last year he finished T3. His long term data shows that he has plus distance off the tee, above average irons, and an elite short game. His short term data shows that if he can start to gain some momentum with the irons, he will be contending to hoist trophy number 6 on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Total - 43rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 56th
Strokes Gained Approach - 140th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 41st
Strokes Gained Putting - 21st
Tom Kim +4000
From the eye test, it looked like Tom Kim found something last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he finished T7. His 2 prior outings in the 2025 season were very poor, finishing T65 at the Sony Open and missing the cut at The American Express. Those results were backed by the putter not cooperating, but that turned last week where he gained over a stroke per round with the flat stick. Kim's results have improved each appearance at this event where he finished T50 in 2023 and T17 last year. His long term data shows an extremely well rounded golfer with strong iron play. At the end of last season and the start of this season, Tom Kim's driving distance has increased to where he is now consistently above average in that category each week. The short term data shows that if the putter cooperates like it did last week, Tom Kim will be contending to hoist his 4th PGA Tour trophy.
Strokes Gained Total - 47th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 106th
Strokes Gained Approach - 30th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 81st
Strokes Gained Putting - 93rd
Sahith Theegala +5000
Sahith Theegala has struggled to start his 2025 campaign on the PGA Tour, but his course history speaks for itself. To start the year, Theegala has finishes of T36 at The Sentry, T37 at the Sony Open, T52 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T53 last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Given half of those events were limited in field size, Theegala's results are nothing short of subpar. That being said, his track record at TPC Scottsdale is phenomenal. In 3 appearances, Theegala has finished T3 in 2022, T39 in 2023, and solo 5th last year. The long term data shows a plus distance drive with above average iron and short games. The short term data shows he's gained with the putter in his last 2 starts and with the irons in 2 of his last 3. If Theegala is able to piece those 2 parts of his game together and isn't too wild off the tee, he can certainly be contending for his second trophy on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Total - 108th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 117th
Strokes Gained Approach - 118th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 118th
Strokes Gained Putting - 69th
Nick Taylor +7500
Nick Taylor is playing some awesome golf to start the 2025 season and he is the defending champion of this event. Pair those things together and it feels like an absolute no brainer given his odds. Taylors results thus far are a T48 at The Sentry, a win at the Sony Open, a T12 at The American Express, and a T33 last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Needless to say, as the defending champion of this event, his course history checks out as well. In addition to the win last year, he was runner up at this event the season before in 2023. The long term data shows an accurate driver of the golf ball with above average iron play. Taylor tends to struggle with the putter, but that has not been the case in 2025 where he's gained in 3 of his 4 starts. The short term data is impressive, especially in the ball striking category. If Taylor can keep the putter hot, it wouldn't surprise me to see him lift his second trophy of the season already.
Strokes Gained Total - 23rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 112th
Strokes Gained Approach - 8th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 111th
Strokes Gained Putting - 74th
Billy Horschel +9000
Billy Horschel is not a player I bet often, but given his current form and longstanding course history, the odds were right for me to add him to my betting card this week. The first two starts of the 2025 season were not good where he finished with a solo 51 at The Sentry and a missed cut at the Sony Open. The following two starts were very good where he finished T21 at The American Express and T9 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Horschel has played this tournament 12 times dating back to 2013. He has 2 Top-10 finishes and 3 Top-25 finishes in his starts at TPC Scottsdale. The long term data shows a well rounded golfer with a solid short game. The short term data shows a golfer who has improved in putting and approach over each start in 2025. I am a little concerned that the crowd could get under Billy's skin at points this week and cause him to get frustrated, but the number is high enough for me to take a chance on that. When Horschel is playing his best golf, I am confident in Horschel getting across the finish line on Sunday, no matter who he is competing against.
Strokes Gained Total - 87th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 129th
Strokes Gained Approach - 50th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 92nd
Strokes Gained Putting - 96th
Daniel Berger +15000
Daniel Berger has played some great golf at TPC Scottsdale over the course of his career and this is a great opportunity to try and get in on Berger while he is still trying to get his footing back on the PGA Tour. It's been a rollercoaster for Berger to start his 2025 campaign where he missed the cut at the Sony Open, finished T21 at The American Express, and missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open. The story was the same for Berger during the swing season. The reason why I added Berger to my card this week was because of his success at this event in the past. Last year coming off of a full year hiatus, he finished T28 at this event which I was more than pleased to see. In 9 appearances in his career at this event, Berger has 3 Top-10 finishes and 1 Top-15 finish. The long term data shows an accurate driver of the golf ball with tour average irons and around the green play. Berger's success throughout his career is often determined by the cooperation of the putter. During the swing season and into the start of 2025, the putter has been positive enough times for Berger to be successful. The short term data shows a consistent off the tee player with volatile irons and short game. The odds this week are big enough to take a chance on Berger.
Strokes Gained Total - 106th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 41st
Strokes Gained Approach - 86th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 87th
Strokes Gained Putting - 162nd
DFS Selections
10k Range
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200) - With Scottie eating most of the ownership in this range, I'm going with the next best ball striker in the field in Hideki Matsuyama. After this win to open the 2025 season at The Sentry, Hideki has cooled off with finishes of T16 at the Sony Open, T32 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T48 last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His tournament history is incredible with back to back wins in 2016 and 2017. In 11 appearances at TPC Scottsdale, he has 2 Top-5's and 4 Top-25's. Matsuyama is an elite ball striker and brings an above average short game. The driver can cause issues for him at times. This has been the story for Matsuyama to start the season, but given his form tapering off, I think this is a great opportunity to buy back in.
Strokes Gained Total - 9th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 94th
Strokes Gained Approach - 16th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 28th
Strokes Gained Putting - 35th
9k Range
Tom Kim ($9,600) - If you read the Tom Kim breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! From the eye test, it looked like Tom Kim found something last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he finished T7. His 2 prior outings in the 2025 season were very poor, finishing T65 at the Sony Open and missing the cut at The American Express. Those results were backed by the putter not cooperating, but that turned last week where he gained over a stroke per round with the flat stick. Kim's results have improved each appearance at this event where he finished T50 in 2023 and T17 last year. His long term data shows an extremely well rounded golfer with strong iron play. At the end of last season and the start of this season, Tom Kim's driving distance has increased to where he is now consistently above average in that category each week. The short term data shows that if the putter cooperates like it did last week, Tom Kim will be contending to hoist his 4th PGA Tour trophy.
Strokes Gained Total - 47th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 106th
Strokes Gained Approach - 30th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 81st
Strokes Gained Putting - 93rd
8k Range
Nick Taylor ($8,400) - If you read the Nick Taylor breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! Nick Taylor is playing some awesome golf to start the 2025 season and he is the defending champion of this event. Pair those things together and it feels like an absolute no brainer given his odds. Taylors results thus far are a T48 at The Sentry, a win at the Sony Open, a T12 at The American Express, and a T33 last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Needless to say, as the defending champion of this event, his course history checks out as well. In addition to the win last year, he was runner up at this event the season before in 2023. The long term data shows an accurate driver of the golf ball with above average iron play. Taylor tends to struggle with the putter, but that has not been the case in 2025 where he's gained in 3 of his 4 starts. The short term data is impressive, especially in the ball striking category. If Taylor can keep the putter hot, it wouldn't surprise me to see him lift his second trophy of the season already.
Strokes Gained Total - 23rd
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 112th
Strokes Gained Approach - 8th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 111th
Strokes Gained Putting - 74th
7k Range
Billy Horschel ($7,600) - If you read the Billy Horschel breakdown in the Outright Betting Card section, this is going to be the same run down so feel free to skip over this! Billy Horschel is not a player I bet often, but given his current form and longstanding course history, the odds were right for me to add him to my betting card this week. The first two starts of the 2025 season were not good where he finished with a solo 51 at The Sentry and a missed cut at the Sony Open. The following two starts were very good where he finished T21 at The American Express and T9 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Horschel has played this tournament 12 times dating back to 2013. He has 2 Top-10 finishes and 3 Top-25 finishes in his starts at TPC Scottsdale. The long term data shows a well rounded golfer with a solid short game. The short term data shows a golfer who has improved in putting and approach over each start in 2025. I am a little concerned that the crowd could get under Billy's skin at points this week and cause him to get frustrated, but the number is high enough for me to take a chance on that. When Horschel is playing his best golf, I am confident in Horschel getting across the finish line on Sunday, no matter who he is competing against.
Strokes Gained Total - 87th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 129th
Strokes Gained Approach - 50th
Strokes Gained Around the green - 92nd
Strokes Gained Putting - 96th
6k Range
Henrik Norlander ($6,300) - The price is right on Norlander who I've been on throughout the swing season and into the start of the 2025 season. He's only played this tournament twice and has finishes of T22 in 2021 and a missed cut in 2022. He's missed the cut in his last 2 starts as well. It's not pretty, but I know what he's capable of. He's an accurate driver of the golf ball with elite iron play. If the putter cooperates, he has the game to have a great finish.
Strokes Gained Total - 89th
Strokes Gained Off the tee - 40th
Strokes Gained Approach - 123rd
Strokes Gained Around the green - 64th
Strokes Gained Putting - 126th
Disclaimer
The betting tips and suggestions provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of winning, and outcomes may vary.
Gambling involves financial risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Always gamble responsibly.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional organization or hotline in your area.
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