Andrew's NTT Data Pro-Am Preview

Something of a relief that I don’t have to think about the KFT after a hugely frustrating week in which all four of my picks failed to make it to the weekend. With a pause on that tour, we can look ahead to the fourth and final week in South Africa on the Hotel Planner Tour. I really enjoy this swing and it highlights the breadth of courses  that this country has to offer, as well as the depth of golfing talent. Both will be on display over the three courses we’re about to look at.

Last week saw JC Ritchie, our shortest-priced selection, continue his excellent course form without getting close enough to threaten a win. Daniel van Tonder also proved he’s still in great form but couldn’t add a third consecutive win, and previous week’s pick Filippo Celli led after 36 holes before finishing 14th. He’ll grab a win this season but it is going to be frustrating until he does. The win, in the end, went to Jamie Rutherford, the big Brit picking up his first win at the 103rd attempt (he’s also had 24 starts on the DPWT.) He was very unlucky not to make it to the main tour after finishing just a stroke away from grabbing the final card  at the Grand Final in Majorca, and then finishing 40th in Q-school. Perhaps this wily veteran can improve this season.

The Tournament

This week sees the tour move to George, a city on the Western Cape of South Africa, and home to the Fancourt Estate. This is Mecca for South African golf, with three pristine courses. For what rankings are worth, the Links Course is the highest ranked in South Africa (per Top 100 Courses, second per Golf Digest rankings), with Montagu (fourth and seventh) and Outenquia (22nd and 25th) also highly regarded. This is a Pro-Am, and the field play a  round over each of the three courses in rotation, with a cut field of just the professionals playing the final round at Montagu on Sunday.

Pleasingly, these are three different courses. The Montagu and Outenquia are both broadly parkland courses, quite classical in nature and with water and trees in play throughout. The Montagu is a substantially tougher test (it is a 7,342 yard par 72, some 450 yards longer than the par 72 Outenquia, which last year gave up a -9 63, and was in general by a margin the lowest scoring of the three.) The par 5s 2nd and 17th are two of the easiest holes in the rotation, whilst the drivable (305 yard) par 4 1st gives an easy start. At the Montgau, danger lurks throughout but the par 4 6th is particularly tough.

Meanwhile, The Links course lives up to its name. The one thing it isn’t is natural – this is a course built on land that was previously an airfield, and just as flat and compressed as that implies. Gary Player oversaw a huge amount of movement but the result is a very challenging, links style course  on rolling land with pot bunkers galore. It is also the toughest test of the three, with nine of the most challenging 13 holes of the 54 that are played. Many will be glad they only see this setup once, though a birdie or better at the par 5 5th is essential.

Unlike the links courses of the UK and Ireland, this will be played in fine weather and largely calm winds, though it’ll be relatively breezy on Saturday afternoon but not enough to significantly alter anything. Of more concern for the field is the ability to play three very different tests on consecutive days, and to play at the pace demanded by a pro-am event. This won’t be too everyone’s taste. 

We’ve seen this event in this format since 1996, and it has been co-sanctioned with the Challenge Tour since 2020, when Christiaan Bezuidenhout won. He’s been followed by Wilco Neinabler, Alexander Knappe, Oliver Bekker (who won in 2012) and David Ravetto. That suggests that power from the tee is at a premium (though C-Bez is hardly a bomber.) In terms of skills, total driving is essential as there’s punitive rough and obstructed approach shots from off the fairway, as well as the obvious need for length. Accuracy is always important and the wayward iron player will need to scramble very effectively. I  think this is a fundamental determinant of success at this level, but good game management and timely risk-taking will be of specific value here.

The Field

Veteran Shaun Norris is here and vying for favouritism with Daniel van Tonder. This is only the third time he’s appeared, missing the cut last year and finishing 67th on his first attempt. Van Tonder’s record (three top tens from three starts since 2017, including last year when in far more ordinary form than he’s enjoyed since) is much more compelling and he was a difficult name to leave off the list. He could well go close. Another interesting name towards the top of the betting market is DPWT regular Casey Jarvis; the 21-year-old has a couple of good results here (though he laboured to 49th last year) and could be suited by the challenge. Otherwise, this is a very similar group to those we’ve seen in the last few weeks. The joy is in the differing terrain and challenge offered this week.

It was tough to leave out Oliver Bekker – a real veteran but with excellent form here, whilst Adri Arnaus might thrive on the tight fairways. In the end, though, a trio of picks were easy to find that all offer each-way value, once I decided not to support van Tonder.

First up is Jovan Rebula, who is playing some of the best under the radar golf on tour this season. He has been top 20 in all three events this season, as well as finishing fourth on the DPWT in Mauritius (on another modern links course.) Better known, annoyingly for him as Ernie Els’ nephew, this represents the best period of golf in Rebula’s career. It is also well worth noticing that he’s a member at Fancourt, and as such will know all three courses; a massive advantage when practice time is so limited. I would be much happier if his record were better (one made cut in three attempts, and not a high finish) but with his form higher I  can overlook that. He won the 2018 Amateur Championship at Royal Aberdeen, proving he can play links courses, he drives the ball well and is coming here fresh from a fourth place last week. This would be a breakthrough win for a player who is yet to deliver on his undoubted amateur promise and I think he’s  got a great chance. The early markets suggest I’m not alone in that view.

Second, and very differently, I’m taking Eddie Pepperell. The fear here is that he’s too short a hitter to succeed here, but you don’t keep a tour card for 12 years without being able to play courses of this length. The popular starr won the British Masters on a classic heathland course at Walton Heath, and can point to a 2nd in the Scottish Open (at Gullane) and a sixth in the Carnoustie Open as  signs that he’ll love The Links course. Despite losing his DPWT card last year, he’s made three starts (including ninth in Mauritius) and might just outclass the field dropping down to this level. His record in the Dunhill Links (four top 20s) shows that he copes with a pro-am and a multi-course set up and I didn’t think I’d be offered this price on a return to winning ways.

Finally, we’re taking a truly massive price and a bit of a risk on the talent of a young Swiss  golfer, Jeremy Freiburghaus. I’m quietly confident that he won’t be tipped anywhere else, even if more punters were interested in this Tour. You have to accept that the start to this season (three missed cuts) reflects different courses that don’t suit him. This tight and tough set up is not unlike the Italian Challenge last year at Argentario GC, where he had his best result of last year. He also went well in the links test at the NI Open (Galgorm). Having spent plenty of time in South Africa as an amateur (winning the prestigious Northern Amateur in 2017) he knows the courses and challenges well, and is priced like a no-hoper. I would not be at all surprised to see a solid tee-to-green game and wily game management propel this rank outsider back towards the top of the leaderboard.

Selections

Jovan Rebula, 40/1, 1pt e/w, Unibet (1/5 odds 6 places) Eddie Pepperell, 50/1, 1pt e/w, Sporting Index (1/5 odds 6 places) Jeremy Freiburghaus, 375/1, 1pt e/w, Sporting Index (1/5 odds 6 places)