The SDC saw a hugely disappointing debut for my selections on this site, with Pepler picking up the worst round four in the tournament to plummet from the fringes of contention to T60, where he joined Yurav Premlall. That did keep him ahead of Lorenzo Scalise, however, who missed the cut. We’ll talk about the better performers later in the week when we look at the MyGolfLife Open, but for now let’s turn to the Panama Championship and the first Korn Ferry Tour preview on this site.
The Tournament
This is a well-established Korn Ferry event, played with only a couple of breaks since 2004 (Jimmy Walker won, and that’s your first clue as to what to expect) and at the same venue each time. We’re at the Club de Golf de Panama in Panama City, and I’m already getting sick of typing the word Panama. The players are coming off two Sunday-Wednesday events so those playing a full schedule have a peculiar week and a half break ahead of this Thursday start and a return to orthodoxy. We’re at sea level, and for once temperatures here will be bearable (high-twenties Celsius, eighties Fahrenheit – far lower than in some previous years.) There’s likely to be a bit of rain about on Thursday and Sunday which may cause some disruption but wind is not really a factor.
Looking for a one-word summary of the course? Long.
Three words? Long and hard.
If you want a proper preview, we’re really just building on those two words. It’s a shame for the rhythm of the season that the Bahamas events (short, and really hard when the wind blows) and Panama (long and really hard always) are the first three events. I’ll warn you now, my previews and those of anyone else who is honest will get very samey over the season when we reach the USA. It’ll be driver-wedge-putter gotta-make-birdie dome golf week after week after week. But the fun is this week (for us. The players, not so much.)
In 2017 this was a longish (7,171 yard) par 70, and Andrew Putnam won at -13. Last year Isiah Salinda won at -12 but the rest of the field began at -4 and the course was a 7,534 yard par 70. It’s a brute, especially the 11th (499 yard par four that played +.87 over par last year) and with a very tough finishing hole. Fairways are wide but there’s lots of water in play and every review or player interview you see seems to describe the greens as “grainy.” So we definitely want players who can give it a bash, but also grinders. Good putting and scrambling will be essential but if the rain softens the course and the winds are lower than normal we are looking for players with real length and probably enough birdies to get to an aggregate of about -10 after a few bogies.
The Field
Early prices are out in the UK (thank you, Bet365) so I’ll base my analysis on those odds, recognizing that some players may be available at better prices in the U.S. or with other firms by the time this is read. I am more than happy with the prices for all my selections, however, so I’ll back them at these prices unless something better comes along in the interim.
Kensei Hirata is favourite (18/1,) and he certainly looks the most talented player in this year’s KFT class. Coming off four wins on the Japanese Tour last year and a 21st in the Sentry this month, he finished second (albeit distantly) at the Great Abaco last time out. However, for me he’s far too short for this course and will be better suited to some of the events coming up. I’m happy to swerve him. Pierceson Coody (20/1) was much harder to ignore. A long driver and a good putter, he’s well-suited to this event, and the straightforward proof of that is that he won here in a windy 2023 edition before spending last year on the PGA Tour. A final round 66 put him on 277 (-3) and in a three-may playoff which he won. Having shown form in the wind recently (T7 in the Bahamas Golf Classic and T12 on the PGA in November’s Bermuda Championship) he’s a real threat and was the last name off my list.
Russel Knox (great form in Bahamas but far too short, missed cut by five shots last year,) Hank Lebioda (likewise, although he made last year’s cut,) Seung-Yol Noh (ditto) and Doc Redman (not even got the recent form) were short-priced players I passed over very easily.
Two who caused me some work and definitely made the shortlist were Hayden Springer and Rayhan Thomas. I think Springer is reasonably priced but not exceptionally so at 25/1. His sixth place at Torrey Pines is excellent and relevant form and he’s gone well in similar exposed coastal tracks before (his best PGA result is third in Puerto Rico.) I have a concern about motivation and he’s not won anything above Canadian Tour (as was) level despite having plenty of chances and as such he narrowly missed out. Thomas (30/1) is among the skilled new professionals I’m keeping a close eye on this year and I think this tough test will suit, especially with his recent form (seventh in Abaco) and experience on the hot and grainy greens of his native India, where he won a PGTI event last autumn. However, I don’t think he’s long enough to compete with the very best here.
From lower down the odds list, don't forget about Brandon Matthews (200/1, second here in 2022 and hugely experienced in Latin American golf, too good for this if he's fully fit and at his best,) Trace Crowe (75/1, ninth in the Bahamas and 11th in the relevant Puntacana on the PGA last year, another experienced Latin American golf exponent) or Neal Shipley, out of form and thus 50/1 but much better suited to this longer track and good enough to be 26th as an amateur at the US Open last year.
The Selections
The first and most confident selection in the conditions is Christo Lamprecht, who I thought would be favourite. I was delighted to see 28/1 and snapped it up immediately. He’s a player I mentioned in my substack preview last week as a likely winner but needing a longer, tougher course than Abaco, where he finished a wildly impressive fourth. That was a continuation of the form he showed in finishing second on the DPWT in Mauritius (a windy, linksy coastal track) and builds on a great amateur career. His best KFT result last year (he turned pro after the Masters and as such is a course debutant) was at The Ascendant, and whilst TPC Colorado is at altitude it is still a brute of a 7,900 yard par 72. This giant - he's 6ft8in - South African has played plenty of coastal golf near his home in the Western Cape, as well as at Georgia Tech, and he won The Amateur Championship at Hillside, a links course on the Irish Sea near Birkdale and predictably windswept. He’s one of the longest hitters on the data golf list and with soft, calm conditions likely he can thrive. He’s also a very fair putter.
I’m taking another young South African next, Barend Botha, and he's someone I’ve got my eye on for this season and who I backed for Q-school in December. There are so many great South African golfers that he gets lost in the mix, but he shouldn't. Reasonably unknown, he wasn’t recruited to the biggest colleges but went to Toledo in Ohio where he starred from the start, winning three collegiate events before turning professional last spring. He promptly won back-to-back on his second and third starts as a pro, picking up the Ottawa Open and BioSteel Championship on the Americas Tour in 2024. He went back to South Africa and showed continued excellent form with a sixth in the Origins of Golf Final and a second place to Pieter Moolman in their PGA Championship. He’s a proven winner and He’s used to playing in the wind. He was seventh at the Bahamas Golf Classic and can improve on that here on a longer and more suitable course.
Finally I’m taking another player who I’ve backed a few times in Petr Hruby. He won for me (at 66/1) in the second stage of Q-school on a long, challenging course at Valencia CC (7,300 yards par 72, and averaging just 0.09 under par per round. As well as his skills on long courses, he played plenty of exposed tracks on the Pacific Coast at Washington and can build on a solid 31st last week at a much more suitable course. I’m going to be backing him frequently whilst the odds remain this attractive.
Christo Lamprecht, 28/1
Barend Botha, 45/1
Petr Hruby, 200/1
All 1pt e/w, ¼ odds 5 places, Bet365.