Fresh off the final Major event of the season in The Open Championship, the PGA TOUR returns state-side for the sixth edition of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota.
This event was established in 2019 and has been held at TPC Twin Cities in each of its installments.
Although the majority of the world’s best will use this week as a natural bye-week instead of taking the ten-hour flight from Scotland and with the Olympic Games just a week away, that doesn't mean there isn’t much to play for this week.
There are just two events remaining on the PGA TOUR schedule (3M Open and Wyndham Championship) before the kick-off of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
The Field
With just two two events remaining before the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, there is plenty to play for coming down the stretch.
Last year saw the reduction of the FedEx Cup Playoffs from 125-golfers to just 70 making the field for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Those on the outside looking in currently playing this week include Lucas Glover (71st,) Lee Hodges (72nd,) Andrew Putnam (73rd,) Adam Schenk (74th,) Keith Mitchell (75th,) Kurt Kitayama (77th,) Adam Svensson (78th,) Ben Kholes (79th) and Charley Hoffman (80th.)
Those who currently occupy the final five in for the FedEx Cup Playoff and teeing it up this week include Emiliano Grillo (66th,) Maverick McNealy (67th,) Davis Riley (69th) and Luke List (70th.)
On top of fighting for a chance to play in the end-of-season playoffs, there are many golfers fighting to maintain their PGA Tour cards via being in the top 125 of the FedEx Cup Standings.
The final five golfers currently within that cut line are each teeing it up this week and include Alejandro Tosti (121st,) Greyson Sigg (122nd,) Erik Barnes (123rd,) Patton Kizzire (124th) and Michael Thorbjornsen (125th.)
Those within the first five outside of the top 125 and teeing it up this week include Chesson Hadley (127th,) Hayden Buckley (128th,) Matti Schmid (129th) and Matt NeSmith (130th.)
Beyond that, shuffling within the top 70 to crack the top 50 to qualify for the BMW Championship and ultimately top 30 to qualify for the TOUR Championship continues.
This week’s field is headlined by 2022 3M Open Champion Tony Finau. Finau will be joined by the likes of Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala and Akshay Bhatia as betting favorites.
Lee Hodges comes in as the defending champion of this event, winning by a demanding seven strokes a season ago over the likes of Martin Laird, J.T. Poston and Kevin Streelman.
Cameron Champ joins Finau and Hodges as former champions of this event teeing it up this week.
The Course
TPC Twin Cities can best be described as the quintessential TPC course layout.
It was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000 and prior to the last five installments of the 3M Open, hosted the 3M Championship between 2001 and 2018.
Prior to its addition to the PGA TOUR schedule in 2019, the course had undergone a renovation behind Tom Lehman.
The purpose of the renovation was to adapt the course to more of a challenge for modern TOUR players.
Tees were pushed back in the renovation, adding nearly 300 yards in total length to the course. Additionally, water hazards were expanded to pose more of a persistent threat on tee shots and approaches.
In the end, the renovation proved to reward the best total drivers who can control their misses, avoid hazards and position themselves in a way to attack the large and receptive greens this course offers.
Now, the course offers both “birdies and train wrecks” which helps offer some exciting golf.
It plays as a Par 71 at 7,431 yards.
There are plenty of short par-fours, a reachable par-five and a stadium style par-tree to keep the crowds engaged. Essentially, what we see at most TPC courses on the TOUR schedule.
Off-the-tee, golfers are faced with tree-lined fairways. The rough is also grown out and as previously mentioned, there are ample water hazards.
The water hazards offer the biggest form of defense to this course, which was evident in the expansion of them in the somewhat recent renovation.
The greens are rather large in terms of TOUR standards and are bentgrass.
The past three seasons have seen winning scores of -24, -17 and -15 respectively, making TPC Twin Cities less than a strict birdie-fest. Hodge’s domination a season ago is an outlier.
In all, it’s a standard parkland course that does offer its fair share of defenses along the way.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, the weather looks to be clear for most of the week. Sunday currently calls for the highest percent chance of precipitation at just 40-percent with a chance of scattered thunderstorms. The rest of the week has at most, a ten-percent chance of precipitation for both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will begin at 84-degrees on Thursday before peaking to 89-or-90 degrees across the weekend. Winds look to be a factor as they’ll peak at 15 miles-per-hour on Saturday. Winds are also set at nine miles-per-hour on Thursday and 13 miles-per-hour on both Friday and Sunday. In all, it looks to be a great week for some golf.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Driving Accuracy
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie or Better Percentage
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass (SG: PUTT Bentgrass)
Scrambling
Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)
Par Five Average Scoring
Proximity to the Hole From 175-plus Yards
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
With just three options in this price range this week, I’ll suggest one golfer in Sahith Theegala ($10,300.) The closeness in price between the three will offer some disparity when it comes to ownership but let’s be honest, each of these three guys here (Tony Finau, Theegala and Sam Burns) will all feature a decent ownership number. Theegala is currently 22nd on Tour in SG: OTT, 23rd in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 28th in SG: APP, 36th in birdie or better percentage, 41st in ball striking, 43rd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 47th in GIR%, 51st in par five average scoring, 80th in scrambling, 83rd in bogey avoidance and 100th in driving accuracy. He returns from Scotland where he missed the cut at The Open Championship but placed T4th a week prior at the Genesis Scottish Open. He also recently placed T12th at the Memorial Tournament. Theegala has also had some great finishes on the season, placing T12th at the PGA Championship, second at the RBC Heritage, T9th at THE PLAYERS Championship, T6th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and fifth at the WM Phoenix Open.
$9,000-$9,900
Leading off this price range is Keith Mitchell ($9,400.) Mitchell was a disappointment last week at the Barracuda Championship as he was the odds-on-favorite to win that event. Instead, he went on to miss the cut. However, he was coming back for the Genesis Scottish Open the week prior. Mitchell has shown some life post-missed-cuts this season as he placed T18th at the John Deere Classic while missing the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic the week prior. He also missed the cut at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and followed that up with a T14th at the Valero Texas Open. He also recently placed T10th at the RBC Canadian Open. On the season he also placed T17th at the Valspar Championship, T9th at the Cognizant Classic, T19th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, T17th at the WM Phoenix Open and T9th at The American Express. Mitchell is currently second on Tour in birdie or better percentage, third in ball striking, fourth in SG: OTT, fifth in par five average scoring, sixth in both SG: APP and GIR%, 25th in bogey avoidance, 81st in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 89th in scrambling, 100th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass and 103rd in driving accuracy. Mitchell also placed T5th here a season ago and also placed solo fifth in 2021. I’m also playing two units on him at +3300 this week. Also consider Akshay Bhatia ($9,800.) The concern on Bhatia is coming back from Scotland after missing the cut at The Open Championship. However, he was able to come back early due to the missed cut. Prior to The Open however, Bhatia placed T2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T5th at the Travelers Championship, T16th at the U.S. Open and T22nd at the Memorial Tournament. Many are correlating this event and course to that of the Valero Texas Open and TPC San Antonio where Bhatia won earlier this season. Bhatia is currently 17th on Tour in SG: APP, 28th in driving accuracy, 35th in ball striking, 39th in SG: OTT, 41st in par five average scoring, 55th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 57th in birdie or better percentage, 58th in scrambling, 64th in bogey avoidance, 79th in GIR% and 127th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass.
$8,000-$8,900
Erik van Rooyen ($8,600) is back this week after withdrawing from the Barracuda Championship a week ago. Rooyen is currently 12th on Tour in GIR%, 13th in birdie or better percentage, 21st in SG: OTT, 26th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 33rd in all three of ball striking, bogey avoidance and par five average scoring, 44th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 45th in SG: APP, 110th in driving accuracy and 119th in scrambling. We last saw Rooyen at the Genesis Scottish Open where he placed T39th. Prior to that he placed T6th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He also placed T4th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, T25th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T2nd at the Cognizant Classic, T8th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and T20th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the season. Also consider Maverick McNealy ($8,300.) McNealy has been much of a disappointment as of late. He had some heavy backing in a few of his recent outings where he wasn’t able to put it all together. McNealy is currently eighth on Tour in scrambling, 17th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 24th in SG: OTT, 25th in birdie or better percentage, 37th in bogey avoidance, 51st in par five average scoring, 52nd in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 71st in ball striking, 97th in driving accuracy, 111th in GIR% and 121st in SG: APP. Prior to his host recent back-to-back missed cuts at the John Deere Classic and The Open Championship, he made the cut in five consecutive events. That run of events was highlighted by a T7th at the RBC Canadian Open, T17th at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T23rd at the PGA Championship. He also placed T9th at THE PLAYERS Championship, T13th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and T6th at the WM Phoenix Open on the season.
$7,000-$7,900
I have to go back to the Chan Kim ($7,600) well this week. Kim has made three cuts coming into this week by going T29th at the Barracuda Championship, T10th at the ISCO Championship and T12th at the John Deere Classic. He also placed T6th at the Corales Puntacana Championship, T14th at the Valero Texas Open, T8th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and T14th at The American Express on the season. Kim is currently seventh on Tour in birdie or better percentage, ninth in scrambling, 12th in bogey avoidance, 13th in both ball striking and par five average scoring, 19th in GIR%, 20th in SG: APP, 42nd in driving accuracy, 49th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 50th in SG: OTT and 62nd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. I’m also playing a unit on Kim at +6600 this week. Also consider Doug Ghim ($7,300.) Ghim hasn’t had the best go of things as of late. He’s made the cut in just one of his last three events and withdrew after the first round of the RBC Canadian Open. However, earlier this season he had a string of events where he placed T13th at the Farmers Insurance Open, T12th at the WM Phoenix Open, T8th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, T16th at the Cognizant Classic and T16th at THE PLAYERS Championship. Ghim also has great course history here. Over the past four years he’s played this event, he’s made the cut three times, placing T27th last year, T16th in 2022 and T18th in 2020. Ghim is currently eighth on Tour in bogey avoidance, ninth in SG: APP, 12th in driving accuracy, 15th in GIR%, 18th in par five average scoring, 23rd in ball striking, 35th in scrambling, 37th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 40th in SG: OTT, 110th in birdie or better percentage and 126th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass.
$6,900-
First up in this price range we have Carson Young ($6,900) who I’ve been all over as of late. Young is currently tenth on Tour in driving accuracy, 18th in ball striking, 27th in birdie or better percentage, 41st in par five average scoring, 42nd in SG: OTT, 43rd in GIR%, 53rd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 69th in SG: APP, 82nd in bogey avoidance, 114th in scrambling and 173rd in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards. Young has missed back-to-back cuts coming into this week but prior to that placed T5th at the John Deere Classic. He also recently placed T14th at the RBC Canadian Open. Earlier this season he placed T8th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and T17th at The American Express. Also consider Greyson Sigg ($6,600.) Sigg is currently tenth on Tour in bogey avoidance, 12th in SG: APP, 14th in GIR%, 30th in scrambling, 36th in driving accuracy, 46th in ball striking, 82nd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 114th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 117th in par five average scoring, 130th in SG: OTT and 165th in birdie or better percentage. Sigg has not been in great form, missing the cut in four straight events coming into this week. However, he did make the cut at the U.S. Open and placed T13th at the Myrtle Beach Classic, T9th at the Corales Puntacana Championship, T19th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta and T17th at The American Express this season.
Betting Card
Keith Mitchell (+3300)
Sam Stevens (+5500)
Chan Kim (+6600)
Rico Hoey (+8000)
Kevin Yu (+9000)
Zac Blair (+25000)
Sam Stevens (+5500)
Stevens placed T10th here a season ago and has made five consecutive cuts coming into this week. Dating back to early March, he’s made the cut in 13-of-15 events he’s played. He recently placed T10th at the Rocket Mortgage, T14th at the RBC Canadian Open and T10th at the Myrtle Beach Classic. He also placed T14th at the Valero Texas Open and T18th at the Puerto Rico Open this season. Stevens is currently 15th on Tour in bogey avoidance, 20th in both SG: OTT and scrambling, 23rd in both GIR% and par five average scoring, 28th in ball striking, 49th in birdie or better percentage, 127th in driving accuracy, 138th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 142nd in SG: APP and 144th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards.
Rico Hoey (+8000)
This was a good number for a player in great form. He’s made four straight cuts coming into this week with a T8th last week at the Barracuda Championship. He also fell in a playoff at the ISCO Championship, placed T26th at the John Deere Classic and also placed T6th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Earlier this season he placed T14th at the Valero Texas Open. Hoey is currently fifth on Tour in par five average scoring, eighth in both ball striking and SG: OTT, 26th in birdie or better percentage, 29th in GIR%, 30th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 78th in SG: APP, 82nd in driving accuracy, 95th in bogey avoidance, 101st in scrambling and 135th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards.
Kevin Yu (+9000)
This is a bit of FOMO more than anything but it’s not like his numbers don’t match up to this golf course. He is currently fourth on Tour in GIR%, ninth in ball striking, tenth in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: APP, 18th in par five average scoring, 30th in bogey avoidance, 51st in birdie or better percentage, 90th in scrambling, 113th in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 120th in driving accuracy and 150th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. He’s missed back-to-back cuts coming into this week at the Barracuda Championship and Genesis Scottish Open but prior to that made five consecutive cuts. He placed T4th at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T20th at the John Deere Classic in that span. He also placed T3rd at The American Express, T6th at the Farmers Insurance Open and T9th at the Cognizant Classic on the season.
Zac Blair (+25000)
A big number for a guy who placed T13th here a season ago. He was a part of the four man playoff at the ISCO Championship where he fell to Harry Hall alongside the aforementioned Hoey. He’s also made the cut in four-of-his-last-six events. Blair is currently second on Tour in proximity to the hole from 175-plus yards, 14th in driving accuracy, 42nd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 53rd in scrambling, 73rd in bogey avoidance, 97th in SG: APP, 131st in par five average scoring, 138th in GIR% and 143rd in both ball striking and SG: OTT.
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