The PGA Tour’s ‘Florida Swing’ continues on with the first of two back-to-back Signature Events in this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Last week’s Cognizant Classic held at PGA National once began the tough, grind-fest type of events on the PGA Tour’s schedule but due to the changes seen the last two seasons, the opposite has taken place.
Now, Bay Hill Club & Lodge will kick-off the PGA Tour’s tough run of courses here in the ‘Florida Swing.’
First played as the successor to the Florida Citrus Open Invitational in 1979, this event has been a main-stay of the PGA Tour schedule since.
It has been played at Bay Hill Golf & Lodge since its inception.
Palmer took a five-year lease on Bay Hill in 1970 with the option to buy. In 1975 he became the full owner of the course.
The event had played under various names since 1979 but in 2007, it began play under the name of club owner and PGA Tour legend, Arnold Palmer.
The Field
Held annually the week before the ‘Fifth Major’ in THE PLAYERS Championship, this event once drew diluted fields due to that.
However, for the third straight season, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has received Signature Event (or Elevated Event as they were first called) status and therefore sees the Tour’s best teeing it up.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler comes in as the defending champion, dominating the competition a season ago, winning by five strokes over Wyndham Clark. He too won this event in 2022 and will look to claim his third Arnold Palmer Invitational title this week. That would place him with the second most victories at this event to just Tiger Woods who won it eight times.
World No. 2 Xander Schauffele is slated to return to action for the first time since The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He has been sidelined since with a rib injury.
Being a Signature Event, all of the Tour’s best will be in attendance including Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, among others.
The likes of Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth have made headlines coming into this event, as it was reported that they will not be receiving sponsor exemptions. Both players were outside of the top-50 of the FedEx Cup standings a season ago.
Other former winners of this event teeing it up include McIlroy (2018) and Jason Day (2016.)
The Course
Bay Hill Club & Lodge was purchased by Arnold Palmer in 1975 and the event has used his name since 2007.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge plays at a lengthy 7,400 yards and par 72.
It joins the Tour’s “grinder” portion of the schedule as making par at most holes will be considered a good score.
To put into perspective how difficult this course can be, over the last seven years, only Kevin Chappell has registered four rounds in the 60s in the same event.
We’ll see plenty of approach shots from 200-plus yards due to the length of the course. Bombers off the tee too will get a leg up, getting down the fairways.
As well as getting off the tee with distance, accuracy too will be key. Bay hill is known for its notoriously thick rough. Missing the fairway will be detrimental this week.
Bay Hill features fast and firm Bermuda greens. Approach shots will be taken with a “bump-and-run” approach as high-arching shots tend to bounce off the firm greens.
The course also features an extensive amount of penalty areas and water is in play on nine of the holes. It too is littered with sand traps.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last five years.
The weather will almost certainly be a factor this week as well. Three years ago the weather took a turn for the worse over the weekend, causing the event to turn into a scrambling contest with the greens nearly becoming impossible to reach in regulation.
In years where weather is a factor, the median score has fallen to plus-five.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, winds look to be a factor this week. Each day, outside of Friday, is calling for at least 13 miles–per-hour winds, with Thursday calling for the highest winds at 15 miles-per-hour. Winds are set for just six miles-per-hour on Friday. Sunday is currently calling for the highest chance of precipitation at 25-percent as Saturday is calling for a 15-percent chance. Thursday and Friday are calling for a less than 5-percent chance. Temperatures will begin at a modest 68-degrees on Thursday before climbing each day before peaking at 81-degrees come Sunday. In all, exactly what we expect out of Florida golf in March.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Average Driving Distance
Proximity to the Hole From 200+ Yards
Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)
Strokes Gained: Putting Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)
Bogey Avoidance
Average Par 5 Scoring
Sand Saves Percentage
Scrambling
Ball Striking
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
It took all of me to not single bullet Rory McIlroy ($10,800) this week on the betting card. With the way he’s playing and attacking this season, $10,800 seems like a discount. He is currently first on Tour in SG: OTT, second in average driving distance, third in both bogey avoidance and scrambling, 28th in both SG: APP and ball striking, 34th in SG: ATG, 45th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 78th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 115th in par five average scoring and 153rd in sand saves percentage. McIlroy won this event in 2018 and since 2020 of those within the field, has the second best average finishing placement to just Scottie Scheffler. He placed 21st here a season ago, second in 2023, 13th in 2022, tenth in 2021 and fifth in 2020. He’s played just two events so far this season, winning the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and placing 17th at the Genesis Invitational.
$9,000-$9,900
It’s probably a surprise that Collin Morikawa ($9,800) isn’t on my betting card but here we are. Instead, I see him as a solid DFS play. The course history here isn’t ideal. He’s missed the cut here the last two seasons and placed ninth here in 2020. On the season Morikawa has played three events, placing second at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, 17th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and most recently, 17th at the Genesis Invitational. He is currently eighth on Tour in par five average scoring, tenth in SG: APP, 11th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 16th in bogey avoidance, 20th in sand saves percentage, 27th in ball striking, 31st in scrambling, 37th in SG: OTT, 74th in SG: ATG, 123rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 165th in average driving distance. Also consider Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300.) Matsuyama is currently first on Tour in both sand saves percentage and scrambling, 14th in both SG: APP and SG: ATG, 16th in bogey avoidance, 17th in par five average scoring, 59th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 109th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 110th in average driving distance, 111th in SG: OTT and 152nd in ball striking. He’s played this event each of the past five seasons, placing 12th a season ago, missing the cut in 2023, 20th in 2022, 18th in 2021 and 56th in 2020. We last saw Matsuyama at the Genesis Invitational where he placed 13th. He has also placed 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 48th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 32nd at the Farmers Insurance Open, 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and he won The Sentry Tournament of Champions on the season. He is also on my betting card at +2500.
$8,000-$8,900
First up in this middle price range we have Sepp Straka ($8,100.) Straka also doesn't have a great course history. He actually has an awful one. He placed 57th here a season ago but missed the cut in each of the four events between 2020 and 2023. However, on the season he has a victory at The American Express to go along with a seventh place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with other top 15 finishes, most recently an 11th place finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic. Straka is currently tenth on Tour in both par five average scoring and ball striking, 11th in SG: APP, 12th in bogey avoidance, 17th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 24th in sand saves percentage, 45th in SG: OTT, 46th in scrambling, 88th in SG: ATG, 105th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 139th in average driving distance. Also consider Daniel Berger ($8,500.) Berger has not played here within the last five seasons. On the season, he’s been a man on a mission. He placed 25th at last week’s Cognizant Classic and prior to that, placed 12th at the Genesis Invitational, second at the WM Phoenix Open and 21st at The American Express. He is currently fifth on Tour in scrambling, 13th in bogey avoidance, 21st in ball striking, 27th in both SG: OTT and SG: ATG, 30th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 51st in SG: APP, 67th in average driving distance, 115th in par five average scoring, 118th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 137th in sand saves percentage.
$7,000-$7,900
Speaking of men on a mission, we have Michael Kim ($7,600) to kick off this price range. Coming into this week, Kim has placed 13th or better in four consecutive events. He placed sixth last week at the Cognizant Classic, 13th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, 13th at the Genesis Invitational and second at the WM Phoenix Open. Like Berger, Kim hasn’t played this event over the last five seasons. Kim is currently second on Tour in bogey avoidance, fifth in sand saves percentage, sixth in scrambling, 20th in SG: ATG, 33rd in SG: APP, 38th in SG: OTT, 40th in both SG: PUTT Bermuda and ball striking, 62nd in par five average scoring, 74th in average driving distance and 119th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards. Also consider Min Woo Lee ($7,500.) Lee is currently sixth on Tour in average driving distance, 11th in SG: ATG, 12th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 27th in scrambling, 44th in SG: OTT, 47th in bogey avoidance, 51st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 53rd in par five average scoring, 58th in sand saves percentage, 77th in ball striking and 120th in SG: APP. His course history isn’t great here, placing 44th here a season ago and missing the cut in both 2023 and 2022. However, on the season, he’s been great. He most recently placed 11th at last week’s Cognizant Classic. He’s also placed 17th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 12th at the WM Phoenix Open and 48th at the Genesis invitational. Lee is also on my betting card at +9000.
$6,900-
If you’re looking for a value play this week, look no further than Max McGreevy ($6,100.) He is currently 17th on Tour in par five average scoring, 20th in ball striking, 39th in sand saves percentage, 47th in bogey avoidance, 75th in SG: APP, 81st in SG: OTT, 83rd in average driving distance, 93rd in SG: ATG, 97th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 104th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 119th in scrambling. McGreevy is fresh off a fourth place finish at last week’s Cognizant Classic and also placed 25th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He’ll be making his tournament debut here this week. Also consider Cam Davis ($6,400.) Davis is currently second on Tour in par five average scoring, eighth in SG: ATG, 21st in SG: APP, 33rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 38th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 80th in sand saves percentage, 91st in bogey avoidance, 109th in ball striking, 142nd in average driving distance, 150th in scrambling and 165th in SG: OTT. We last saw Davis at the Genesis Invitational where he missed the cut but prior to that placed fifth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 18th at The American Express and 13th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He placed 18th here a season ago but missed the cut in each of 2023, 2022 and 2021.
Betting Card
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Sam Burns (+5500)
Robert MacIntyre (+6000)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+8000)
Min Woo Lee (+9000)
Sam Burns (+5500)
I’m not sure why I continue to back Burns but I just like to feel empty inside. He’s had a mixed-bag of results at this event over the last five seasons. He placed 30th here a season ago, he missed the cut in 2023, placed ninth in 2022, missed the cut in 2021 and placed 36th in 2020. Burns has played five events so far this season, most recently the Genesis Invitational where he placed 24th. He’s also placed 49th at the WM Phoenix Open, 22nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 29th at The American Express and eighth at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. Burns is currently 11th on Tour in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 13th in bogey avoidance, 32nd in scrambling, 33rd in ball striking, 35th in sand saves percentage, 51st in SG: OTT, 69th in SG: ATG, 73rd in average driving distance, 87th in par five average scoring, 113th in SG: APP and 153rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards.
Robert MacIntyre (+6000)
We last saw MacIntyre at the Genesis Invitational where he missed the cut but prior to that he placed sixth at the WM Phoenix Open, 40th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 53rd at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He is currently sixth on Tour in SG: OTT, eighth in ball striking, 36th in bogey avoidance, 37th in par five average scoring, 53rd in SG: APP, 77th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 101st in SG: ATG, 110th in scrambling, 111th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 114th in average driving distance and 147th in sand saves percentage. He’s played this event just once prior, placing 36th in 2021.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+8000)
Fitzpatrick has great course history here. Outside of missing the cut a season ago, he placed 14th in 2023, ninth in 2022, tenth in 2021 and ninth in 2020. His start to his 2025 campaign has not been great. He’s played four events, placing at best, 24th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also placed 48th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open and placed 49th at the Genesis Invitational. He is currently eighth on Tour in sand saves percentage, 21st in SG: OTT, 31st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 42nd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 44th in both par five average scoring and ball striking, 125th in SG: APP, 126th in average driving distance, 149th in scrambling and 170th in SG: ATG. Around-the-green work has always been the problem for Fitzpatrick but when he can right-that-ship, he can win any golf tournament he tees it up in. For example, the 2022 U.S. Open and 2023 RBC Heritage.