After spending the better part of two-months on the West-Coast of the United States and a stop in Mexico, the PGA Tour begins its ‘Florida Swing’ with this week’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.
Played annually at PGA National since 2007, this event continues to draw the short end of the stick when it comes to scheduling.
Sandwiched between events such as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, WM Phoenix Open and The Genesis Invitational prior and the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship after, the Cognizant Classic often draws a weak field.
Due to this, one of the PGA Tour’s longest standing sponsors, Honda, withdrew from the Tour after being a part of it since 1982 for last year’s event. This year marks the second playing under the sponsorship of Cognizant.
The Field
With most of the Tour’s best remaining idle this week with back-to-back Signature Events in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship on the horizon, this week’s field reflects that.
Russell Henley (No. 17) is the highest ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) teeing it up this week. He’ll be joined by the likes of Sepp Straka (No. 18,) Shane Lowry (No. 19,) Billy Horschel (No. 21) and SungJae Im (No. 22) as golfers within the top 25 of the OWGR teeing it up this week.
Other notable names teeing it up this week include Jordan Spieth, Byeong Hun An, Brian Harman, Max Greyserman and Denny McCarthy.
In all, there are just 16 golfers ranked within the top 50 of the OWGR playing this week.
Austin Eckroat comes in as the defending champion, topping the likes of Min Woo Lee and Erik van Rooyen by three strokes to claim the title a season ago. He’ll be back this week in an attempt to make it back-to-back Cognizant Classic titles.
Other former champions of this event teeing it up this week include Chris Kirk (2023,) Straka (2022,) Im (2020,) Keith Mitchell (2019,) Rickie Fowler (2017,) Henley (2014,) Camilo Villegas (2010,) Luke Donald (2006) and Matt Kuchar (2022.)
The Course
PGA National plays at 7,125 yards as a par-71. Although short on paper it is anything but a typical short course with its use of tight landing areas off the tee and a heavy dosage of forced layups due to tight doglegs.
Due to this, wedge play is essentially removed from this course, with just about 11-percent of approach shots coming from within 125 yards. Those able to dial it in with mid-to-long irons from 125-200 yards will have an advantage this week. Approximately 54-percent of approach shots will come from the 125-200 yard range. This of course is well above the Tour average.
The course plays as one of the most difficult courses for approach shots from 150 yards as well. This is due to the exposure of gusting winds with a combination of firm and fast conditions.
To show the difficulty of this course, outside of two of the par-fives, all 16 of the other holes play at a scoring average of even par or worse. With the unpredictably of the wind as well, the two par-fives are no guarantee for birdies either.
Last year, we saw the changing of the former par-four tenth hole to a par-five. The tenth was lengthened by 20 yards and converted from a very difficult par-four to a more scorable par-five. The new yardage of this hole is 528-yards.
This change won’t alter the overall difficulty of this course but instead, change the winning score by up to a three-to-four stroke swing.
PGA National is known for its “Bear Trap” stretch of holes from 15 to 17 that play as the fourth most difficult three-hole stretch on the entire Tour. Only Quail Hollow (16-18,) Pebble Beach (8-10) and Muirfield Village (16-18) feature a tougher three hole stretch.
Water is heavily featured throughout the Bear Trap, which includes two 175-yard par-threes and a tight dogleg par-four.
The Bear Trap does allow for dramatic and climactic finishes down the stretch as those chasing the leaders may take an aggressive approach and take the line at the tight pin locations over the water.
Simply put, the event can be won or lost here in the Bear Trap.
New to this season’s playing of PGA National, roughly four acres of fairway was removed, reducing them to an average width of 28-yards.
Additionally, all of the grass outside of the greens has been over seeded with rye grass. This has not been done at the course since 2014. The rough will now play at 2.5-inches.
PGA National annually has had a cut line above-par in ten-of-the-last-11-seasons. Last year, the cut line was -2. The median field score has sat at even par or worse in seven of the last nine years as well.
A score of -10 or less has been enough to win the event in eight of the last twelve seasons.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, there is a 20-percent chance of precipitation on Thursday and a 25-percent chance on Friday. From there, the chance of precipitation falls to just ten-percent on Saturday and five-percent on Sunday. Temperatures will begin at 80-degrees on Thursday before dropping to 74-degrees on Friday and Saturday before reaching 75-degrees on Sunday. Winds will be at the lowest on Thursday at eight miles-per-hour before peaking on Friday at 14 miles-per-hour. Winds will then settle to eight miles-per-hour on Saturday and nine miles-per-hour on Sunday.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT)
Total Driving
Proximity to the Hole from 125-200 Yards
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)
Par Four Average Scoring
Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
With only two golfers in this price range it’s fair to skip it but I have to talk about Shane Lowry ($10,500) here. This is mainly due to his course history. Over the past three seasons he placed fourth last year, fifth in 2023 and second in 2022. He also placed 36th in 2021 and 21st in 2020. He is currently 39th on Tour in SG: OTT, 42nd in scrambling, 44th in SG: ATG, 50th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 68th in SG: APP, 79th in par four average scoring, 80th in total driving, 126th in ball striking, 128th in bogey avoidance and 167th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. He’s played just three events so far this season, placing second at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 39th at The Genesis Invitational. He also missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open.
$9,000-$9,900
Per my stats based model, Daniel Berger ($9,900) is my second favorite this week. He’s currently eighth on Tour in par four average scoring, ninth in both total driving and scrambling, 14th in bogey avoidance, 19th in SG: OTT, 27th in ball striking, 28th in SG: ATG, 30th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 34th in SG: APP and 129th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. He’s played this event three times over the last five seasons. He placed fourth here in both 2022 and 2020. He did miss the cut here a season ago but he was returning from injury. On the season he placed second at the WM Phoenix Open, 12th at The Genesis Invitational and 21st at The American Express. Berger is also on my betting card at +2800. Also consider Sepp Straka ($9,400.) Along with winning here in 2022, Straka placed fifth in 2023, 27th in 2020 and 33rd in 2021. He did miss the cut here a season ago however. Straka is currently 11th on Tour in par four average scoring, 13th in SG: APP, 14th in bogey avoidance, 16th in both ball striking and proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 56th in both total driving and scrambling, 64th in SG: OTT, 100th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 104th in SG: ATG. Straka won The American Express already this season and also placed seventh at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 15th at the WM Phoenix Open, 15th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He missed the cut in his last outing at The Genesis Invitational. Straka is also on my betting card at +2500.
$8,000-$8,900
Leading off this price range we have Michael Kim ($8,400.) Kim has continued his early-season strong play with a 13th place finish a week ago at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He’s also placed 13th at The Genesis Invitational, second at the WM Phoenix Open and 43rd at The American Express on the season. He’s made three consecutive cuts coming into this week. His course history here isn’t great, missing the cut in the three events he’s played over the last five seasons (2024, 2023 and 2021) but one could argue he’s playing some of the best golf of his career at this point. He’s currently seventh on Tour in bogey avoidance, eighth in scrambling, 22nd in both proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards and SG: ATG, 29th in par four average scoring, 41st in SG: APP, 44th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 55th in ball striking, 60th in SG: OTT and 68th in total driving. Also consider Patrick Rodgers ($8,200.) Like Kim, Rodgers is having a great start to his 2025 campaign. He placed 25th last week at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and placed third at The Genesis Invitational a week prior. He’s also placed 22nd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 56th at the Farmers Insurance Open and 70th at The American Express. He’s made the cut in five-of-seven events he’s played so far this season. His best finish over the last five seasons here was a 21st in 2020. He also placed 64th in 2022. Rodgers is currently 20th on Tour in total driving, 33rd in both ball striking and SG: OTT, 34th in scrambling, 35th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 43rd in par four average scoring, 60th in bogey avoidance, 69th in SG: ATG, 73rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 97th in SG: APP.
$7,000-$7,900
Recency bias is a real thing when it comes to golf betting. Alex Smalley ($7,900) was one of the most tipped golfers last week in Mexico and his final round would leave a sour taste in any backer’s mouth. However, per my stats based model, he is my overall favorite this week, so with that, I’m going back to the well. He is currently fourth on Tour in par four average scoring, eighth in ball striking, 12th in total driving, 14th in bogey avoidance, 15th in SG: OTT, 18th in scrambling, 21st in SG: ATG, 46th in SG: APP, 48th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards and 99th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. In other words, he’s one of the most well rounded golfers on Tour. His Course history here isn’t great however. He missed the cut here a season ago and placed 55th in 2022. However, on the season, he has played in five events, making the cut in four of them. In the events he made the cut, his worst finish has been 21st at the WM Phoenix Open. He placed tenth a week ago at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, 11th at The American Express and 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s also on my betting card at +6000. Also consider Kevin Roy ($7,200.) Roy is currently first on Tour in both ball striking and total driving, second in bogey avoidance, fifth in scrambling, eighth in par four average scoring, ninth in SG: OTT, 83rd in SG: APP, 124th in both proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards and SG: ATG and 161st in SG: PUTT Bermuda. The putting figure is a bit worrisome but he did gain 1.469 strokes on the greens last week in Mexico. In the three events he’s played so far this season he’s placed 17th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, 18th at The American Express and 45th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s played this event once prior, placing 29th in 2023.
$6,900-
Leading off this final price range we have Charley Hoffman ($6,800.) He’s played this event just once prior over the last five seasons, missing the cut in 2023. He’s also missed back-to-back cuts at the WM Phoenix Open and Mexico Open at VidantaWorld coming into this week but prior to that placed 25th at the Farmers Insurance Open, fifth at The American Express and 59th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He is currently seventh on Tour in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 23rd in SG: APP, 31st in scrambling, 37th in ball striking, 57th in SG: ATG, 62nd in SG: OTT, 64th in par four average scoring, 79th in bogey avoidance and 148th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Also consider Henrik Norlander ($6,500.) Norlander has missed the cut here in the three events he’s played at PGA National over the last five seasons (2023, 2021 and 2020.) However, he’s fresh off a 13th place finish at last week’s Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and also placed 37th at the Sony Open in Hawaii this Season. On Tour, he is currently eighth in total driving, 12th in SG: APP, 20th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 43rd in ball striking, 46th in scrambling, 47th in bogey avoidance, 97th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 111th in par four average scoring, 114th in SG: OTT and 117th in SG: ATG.
Betting Card
Sepp Straka (+2500)
Daniel Berger (+2800)
Alex Smalley (+6000)
Lee Hodges (+8000)
Ryan Gerard (+10000)
Ryo Hisatsune (+20000)
Lee Hodges (+8000)
Proceed with caution because Hodges will be one of the most tipped golfers this week. That’s for good reason however. He did miss the cut here a season ago but placed 14th in 2023 and ninth in 2022. On the season he has made the cut in each of the five tournaments he has played. He placed ninth at the Farmers Insurance Open, tenth at the Sony Open in Hawaii, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 34th at The American Express and 57th in his last outing at the WM Phoenix Open. He is currently 22nd on Tour in total driving, 29th in par four average scoring, 37th in scrambling, 46th in ball striking, 67th in bogey avoidance, 70th in SG: APP, 79th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 95th in SG: ATG, 102nd in SG: OTT and 116th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards.
Ryan Gerard (+10000)
Gerard has made the cut in each of the four events he’s played so far this season. He placed 17th last week at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He also placed 15th at the Farmers Insurance Open, 51st at The American Express and 37th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s played this event once over the last five seasons, placing fourth in 2023. He is currently 11th on Tour in par four average scoring, 16th in total driving, 18th in ball striking, 37th in both SG: APP and scrambling, 55th in SG: OTT, 70th in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 79th in bogey avoidance, 123rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 145th in SG: ATG.
Ryo Hisatsune (+20000)
Hisatsune is currently 48th on Tour in SG: ATG, 55th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 59th in total driving, 68th in SG: APP, 77th in ball striking, 83rd in proximity to the hole from 125-200 yards, 87th in SG: OTT, 92nd in bogey avoidance, 103rd in scrambling and 131st in par four average scoring. He’s played this event just once prior, missing the cut a season ago. He’s fresh off his best performance of the season, placing tenth last week at the Mexico Open at Vidanta World. He’s also placed 43rd at The American Express and 65th at the Sony Open in Hawaii.