The regular season of the 2024 PGA Tour campaign is behind us as the top 70-golfers of the season long FedEx Cup Standings begin their journey towards the PGA Tour Championship in three weeks time.
The first of the three stops in the end-of-season FedEx Cup Playoffs takes place this week at TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Once hosting the top 125-golfers within the FedEx Cup Standings two years ago, last year saw the reduction to just 70-golfers, which will be the case this week as well.
From here, the top 50 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings will advance to next week’s BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club and ultimately the top 30 will advance to the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Course.
There is still time for those in the 51-to-70 range to make some moves as players received 500 points for winning a regular PGA TOUR event but can receive 2,000 points for winning this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.
This event was established as the Memphis Open in 1958 before becoming the St. Jude Invitational in 1970. In 2018, the event became a World Golf Championship event, elevating its status.
The World Golf Championship is no-longer a thing but this event still holds a prestigious tag after replacing the Northern Trust in 2022 as the kick-off tournament for the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
The Field
As previously mentioned, this week’s field features the top 70-golfers within the season-long FedEx Standings.
Throughout the season, golfers received points from their respective finishes at each golf tournament to get to this point.
As it sits, Seamus Power, Nick Dunlap, Jhonattan Vegas, Emiliano Grillo and Victor Perez are the first five golfers within the top 70 of the FedEx Cup Standings to make the field.
This leaves the likes of Davis Riley, Andrew Putnam, Kurt Kitayama, Luke List and Adam Svensson on the outside looking in.
This will also be the first ever FedEx Cup Playoffs to not include Matt Kuchar who is facing criticism after he refused to finish his round of the Wyndham Championship with half-of-a-hole to play. Kuchar played in every installment of the FedEx Cup Playoffs since its inception in 2007.
Of course, this week’s field will be headlined by Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy.
Lucas Glover is the defending champion after his improbable run a season ago. However, he failed to make the field this season and will not be back to defend his title.
Adam Scott (2013,) Jason Day (2015,) Tony Finau (2021) and Will Zalaotirs (2022) are former winners of this event, including the WGC-FedEx St. Jude or St. Jude Classic, to be teeing it up this week.
The top 50-golfers of the FedEx Cup Standings will advance to next week’s BMW Invitational. This will allow for great dramatics and storylines down to the final hole on Sunday.
As things sit, Adam Scott, Max Greyserman, Mackenzie Hughes, Will Zalatoris and Jake Knapp are the first five names within the top-50. Harris English, Nick Taylor, Patrick Rodgers, Eric Cole and Justin Rose as the first five guys out of the top-50.
Big names such as defending PGA Tour Champion Viktor Hovland (57th) and Jordan Spieth (63rd) currently sit outside of the cut line and will need big weeks this week to see more golf this season beyond this week.
The Course
To best describe TPC Southwind, we can simply take a look at its name. The course embodies all of the characteristics of a southern Bermuda course while also susceptible to high winds. Simple enough.
TPC Southwind was designed by Ron Prichard in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green and opened in 1988.
The course, upon opening, offered a stern test to the world’s best but was made even more difficult in 2004.
A total of 125 trees were planted and 15 new bunkers were installed (totaling to 96.) Additionally, the par five fifth hole was converted to a par four which reduced the par from 71 to 70.
The fairways were re-contoured and narrowed as well as over 200-yards were added to the course.
The course now plays as a par 70 measuring 7,244 yards.
The fairways are undulating and water is in play on ten holes. The track also features nine holes that include doglegs.
The course shows its teeth when playing from outside of the fairways. TPC Southwind ranks top six in penalty from missed fairways and approach difficulty from the rough. It also features top-ten most-narrow fairways on TOUR.
This will add an emphasis on driving accuracy off the tee as golfers will look to find the fairways with such difficulties coming if they are missed. Additionally, with the greens rolling firm and fast, there will be an emphasis on scrambling this week as well.
However, accuracy isn’t the end all, as it has proven in year’s past that this course can be attacked by bombers and fairway-finders alike.
TPC Southwind also features smaller-than-average Bermuda greens that run at 12 on the stimpmeter.
The greens roll firm, fast and true and traditionally serve as some of the easiest in putting difficulty on the entire PGA TOUR.
This will allow for the field’s weaker putters to come back to field average. In the same sense, elite putters may receive an even bigger benefit as they have the opportunity to ‘explode’ on the greens this week.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, there is at most a 30-percent chance of precipitation across all four days this week. Thursday is calling for just a ten-percent chance of precipitation as Friday calls for a 30-percent chance and Saturday and Sunday both call for a 20-percent chance. Friday is also calling for isolated thunderstorms. The temperatures will be high however with more than 50-percent humidity. Temperatures will begin at 97-degrees on Thursday before gradually falling to 92-degrees on Sunday. Winds too seem to be in check with Friday calling for the highest winds at just ten miles-per-hour as the rest of the week is calling for wind speeds of seven-to-nine miles-per-hour.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG: TTG)
Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)
Strokes Gained: Approach
Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)
Scrambling
Par Four Average Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie or Better Percentage
Proximity to the hole from 150-175 Yards
Sand Saves Percentage
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
There’s only one way to go here and that’s Scottie Scheffler ($12,400.) Honestly at $12,400, I feel like that's a discount. Xander Schauffele has closed the gap between him and Scheffler with his win at The Open but Scheffler has since gone on to win The Olympics. Scheffler is currently first on Tour in all of SG: TTG, SG: APP, GIR%, par four average scoring, bogey avoidance, birdie or better percentage and proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards. He is also second in ball striking, fourth in SG: OTT and fifth in scrambling. The faults in his game come from out of the sand as he ranks 114th in sand saves percentage but let's be honest, he doesn’t find himself there too often. Scheffler’s biggest downfall is his putter as he ranks 149th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Anyway you look at it, you need to have Scheffler in your lineups. He’s won six times on Tour this season, including The Olympics. He has placed top ten in 14-of-16 events played this season and top five in 11 of them.
$9,000-$9,900
I really like the value Corey Conners ($9,100) offers this week. He placed T9th at The Olympics and prior to that placed T25th at The Open Championship and T10th at the Genesis Scottish Open. He also placed T27th at the Travelers Championship, T9th at the U.S. Open, T20th at the Memorial Tournament and sixth at the RBC Canadian Open. He has 11 top 25’s in the 20 events he’s played this season. He is currently fourth on Tour in SG: APP, sixth in both ball striking and proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, eighth in SG: TTG, 12th in GIR%, 26th in par four average scoring, 28th in SG: OTT, 35th in driving accuracy, 40th in birdie or better percentage, 48th in bogey avoidance, 112th in sand saves percentage, 141st in scrambling and 148th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. His biggest downfall is his putter but he did gain 4.009 strokes putting at the Genesis Scottish Open. He also placed T6th here a season ago as well as T28th in 2022, T8th in 2021, T25th in 2020 and T21st in 2019. He is also on my betting card this week for a unit at +4000. Also consider Tommy Fleetwood ($9,800.) Fleetwood is riding high after claiming the silver medal at The Olympics. He also recently placed T34th at the Genesis Scottish Open, 15th at the Travelers Championship, T16th at the U.S. Open, T20th at the Memorial Tournament, T21st at the RBC Canadian Open, T26th at the PGA Championship and T13th at the Wells Fargo Championship. He comes into this week ninth on Tour in driving accuracy, 13th in scrambling, 15th in bogey avoidance, 26th in par four average scoring, 41st in SG: TTG, 44th in ball striking, 47th in SG: OTT, 53rd in sand saves percentage, 76th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 90th in GIR%, 105th in SG: APP, 118th in birdie or better percentage and 123rd in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards. He also placed T3rd here a season ago.
$8,000-$8,900
After tipping Aaron Rai ($8,200) at +4000 a week ago in his maiden victory, I’m going back to the steady-handed Englishman. He is currently second on Tour in driving accuracy, fourth in GIR%, fifth in bogey avoidance, sixth in both SG: APP and par four average scoring, seventh in SG: TTG, 11th in ball striking, 20th in scrambling, 34th in SG: OTT, 66th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 77th in birdie or better percentage, 90th in sand saves percentage and 113th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. His downfall his entire career has been his putter but as of late, he is much improved. He gained 2.560 strokes on the greens last week at the Wyndham Championship, 5.703 strokes at the Genesis Scottish Open, 8.918 strokes at the John Deere Classic, 4.798 strokes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 2.828 strokes at the U.S. Open. He of course won last week at the Wyndham Championship but prior to that placed T4th at the Genesis Scottish Open, T7th at the John Deere Classic, T2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T19th at the U.S. Open and T14th at the RBC Canadian Open. He finally got that elusive maiden PGA Tour victory under his belt so watch out for Rai going forward. Also consider Sahith Theegala ($8,600.) Theegala is currently seventh on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 17th in SG: OTT, 20th in SG: TTG, 40th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 43rd in SG: APP, 47th in par four average scoring, 51st in ball striking, 55th in GIR%, 57th in bogey avoidance, 61st in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 64th in scrambling, 96th in driving accuracy and 109th in sand saves percentage. He also placed T13th here the last two seasons in his only appearances. He placed T6th in his last outing at the 3M Open and also placed T4th at the Genesis Scottish Open, T12th at the Memorial Tournament and T12th at the PGA Championship as of late.
$7,000-$7,900
I’m quickly becoming a big fan of Davis Thompson ($7,400.) That’s not only because I hit him in his victory at the John Deere Classic. The former number one amateur has also placed T12th at the Wyndham Championship last week, T2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T9th at the U.S. Open as of late. Thompson is currently 13th on Tour in SG: TTG, 15th in both ball striking and par four average scoring, 19th in birdie or better percentage, 36th in bogey avoidance, 39th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 42nd in GIR%, 45th in sand saves percentage, 48th in SG: APP, 52nd in SG: OTT, 68th in scrambling, 78th in driving accuracy and 90th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. In other words, he’s above average in each of the 13 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. I’m also playing a unit on him at +8000 this week. Also consider Alex Noren ($7,200.) Do I think Noren wins this week? No, but he does line up well for a strong finish with some great value. Recently he’s placed T13th at The Open Championship, T10th at the Genesis Scottish Open, T22nd at the Memorial Tournament and T12th at the PGA Championship. The last time we saw Noren here at this course was 2021 where he finished T4th. He also placed T8th the year prior. Noren is currently second on Tour in scrambling, fifth in bogey avoidance, sixth in par four average scoring, 17th in SG: TTG, 23rd in sand saves percentage, 34th in driving accuracy, 37th in GIR%, 45th in SG: APP, 49th in ball striking, 52nd in SG: PUTT, 63rd in SG: OTT, 105th in birdie or better percentage and 167th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards.
$6,900-
Leading off this price range is the 3M Open champion Jhonattan Vegas ($6,500.) Vegas is currently first on Tour in ball striking, second in GIR%, eighth in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: TTG, 15th in both SG: APP and birdie or better percentage, 18th in bogey avoidance, 24th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 47th in par four average scoring, 61st in driving accuracy, 143rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 158th in scrambling and 169th in sand saves percentage. Outside of winning the 3M Open, Vegas also placed T20th at the John Deere Classic, T25th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T27th at the RBC Canadian Open. He has missed the cut in his last two outings here (2022 and 2021) but did place T3 in 2017, T15th in 2018 and T38th in 2019. Vegas also sits 68th in the FedEx Cup standings so he needs a massive week if he hopes to tee it up next week in Colorado. Also consider Tom Hoge ($6,800.) Hoge is currently third on Tour in SG: APP, eighth in birdie or better percentage, 28th in SG: TTG, 39th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 47th in par four average scoring, 59th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 60th in GIR%, 68th in bogey avoidance, 69th in driving accuracy, 90th in scrambling, 94th in SG: OTT, 100th in ball striking and 127th in sand saves percentage. Hoge hasn’t been in the best of form as of late but did place T3rd at the Travelers Championship. Hoge has a mixed bag of results here but did place T4th in 2021.
Betting Card
Collin Morikawa (+1400)
Corey Conners (+4000)
Sungjae Im (+4500)
Davis Thompson (+8000)
Victor Perez (+17500)
Collin Morikawa (+1400)
It seems improbable that Morikawa has not found the winner’s circle this season. He’s been in some great form, placing at worst T16th in his last eight outings. He also has placed in the top 23 in each of his last 11 events, dating back to the Masters. He placed T4th at the Genesis Scottish Open, second at the Memorial Tournament, fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge, T4th at the PGA Championship, ninth at the RBC Heritage and T3rd at the Masters. He is currently fourth on Tour in driving accuracy, sixth in par four average scoring, ninth in SG: TTG, 15th in both SG: OTT and scrambling, 24th in birdie or better percentage, 34th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 41st in SG: APP, 74th in ball striking, 105th in sand saves percentage, 116th in GIR% and 138th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Morikawa’s downfall is the putter but it’s not like he’s missing putts in a bad way. He is hardly missing them. At some point, the ball will begin to fall and he could run away with any tournament if that is to be the case. In his last two outings here he has placed T13th in 2023 and T5th in 2022.
Sungjae Im (+4500)
Everyone and their brother were on Im last week at the Wyndham Championship as he finished T41st. Now’s the time to get on him as everyone in the golf betting community has short term memory. Im is still in some insane form, placing T7th at The Open Championship, T4th at the Genesis Scottish Open, T12th at the John Deere Classic, T3rd at the Travelers Championship, T8th at the Memorial Tournament, T9th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, T4th at the Wells Fargo Championship and T12th at the RBC Heritage. He is also sixth on Tour in par four average scoring, 19th in sand saves percentage, 21st in birdie or better percentage, 25th in SG: OTT, 29th in SG: TTG, 35th in bogey avoidance, 37th in scrambling, 40th in driving accuracy, 75th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 99th in ball striking, 103rd in SG: APP, 110th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards and 129th in GIR%. In his last three outings here he placed T6th in 2023, 12th in 2022 and T16th in 2021.
Victor Perez (+17500)
Victor Perez is the last guy in the field, finishing the season 70th in the FedEx Cup Standings. With that being said, it’ll take a victory to get into the field next week. Perez placed T33rd last week at the Wyndham Championship after placing fourth at The Olympics in his home country. He also recently placed T10th at the Genesis Scottish Open, T12th at the Memorial Tournament and third at the RBC Canadian Open. Perez is currently 29th on Tour in ball striking, 30th in bogey avoidance, 32nd in GIR%, 45th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 56th in SG: TTG, 60th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 74th in SG: OTT, 85th in driving accuracy, 105th in scrambling, 117th in sand saves percentage and 133rd in birdie or better percentage. He will be making his debut at this event this week.
Comments