top of page
Search
Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: Shriners Children's Open (2024)


As the PGA TOUR continues its Fall Series, it takes a stop in Sin City for the Shriners Children’s Open.


Held annually at TPC Summerlin, this event was first staged in 1983.


It was once a pro-am and played over five rounds at multiple courses. In 2004, it was reverted to a 72-hole tournament and since 2008 has been played every year at TPC Summerlin.


Although a part of the Fall Series, there is still plenty to play for including full exemption for the 2025 PGA TOUR season and placement in Signature Events.


The Field

Two time defending champion Tom Kim headlines this week's field as the beloved South Korean looks to join an elusive list of three-time defending champions on the PGA Tour.


In the history of the PGA Tour, just 21 times has a golfer won an event three consecutive times. That list includes names such as Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan and Walter Hagen among other all-time greats of the game.


The last time it was done was Stricker’s three-peat at the John Deere Classic between 2009-and-2011.


This week’s field is also stronger than what we’ve seen as of late during the Fall Series. Other notable names teeing it up this week include Davis Thompson, Taylor Pendrith, Tom Hoge, Beau Hossler, Seamus Power and Kurt Kitayama.


Other former winners of this event teeing it up this week include Martin Laird (2020 & 2009,) Webb Simpson (2013) and Ryan Moore (2012.)


The Course

This week’s Shriners Children’s Open is hosted by TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada. It sits just ten miles off the Las Vegas Strip.


TPC Summerlin is a par-71 that plays at 7,255 yards on the scorecard but due to sitting at elevation, plays much shorter than that number suggests.


This course was established in 1991 and was designed by Bobby Wood who was aided by Fuzzy Zoeller.


After the 2021 playing of this event and prior to the 2022 edition, the course saw an overhauling of its turf from tee to green. The layout, yardage and contours on the green were maintained however. The renovations were put into place with the intent to better withstand the desert climate.


Following the 2018 edition of this event, the course saw an overhaul of its 102 bunkers. The sand was replaced and in many cases, the bunkers were moved to fit better with the strategy of today’s game


In all, the recent renovations were strictly cosmetic as the scoring average has not been altered.


The greens this week are Bentgrass and are large, receptive and typically play at around 11.5 on the Stimpmeter.


If there were to be an overall line of defense for TPC Summerlin it would be its around-the-green complexes which have regularly ranked top-ten in Strokes Gained: Around the Green difficulty from both the fairways and bunkers.


The rough and fairways are Bermuda. These fairways and greens alike are well above the TOUR average in size.


TPC Summerlin is also annually one of the easiest courses on the entire PGA TOUR schedule.


There are 14 holes featured this week with an average birdie rate above 15-percent.


TPC Summerlin features six par-fours between 400-450 yards and an overall par-four scoring average that is amongst the lowest on the entire TOUR.


Golfers will have to take advantage of the three par-fives this week to keep pace with the birdie rates we’ll see this week. 


The par-threes are this venue’s biggest lines of defense. Three of the four par-threes featured this week measure over 195 yards and feature a scoring average over-par.


Water is in play on just four holes this week. TPC Summerlin also features a heavy dosage of natural hazards surrounding the fairways to penalize free-swingers off the tee.


In all, TPC Summerlin ranks in the bottom-five in difficulty across metrics such as Strokes Gained: Total, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Par-Four Average Soring, Average Driving Distance Strokes Gained: Putting from 15-plus Feet and Greens in Regulation.


This track consistently plays as the easiest par-71 on the entire PGA TOUR.


The Weather

As of the time of writing this, Friday is calling for a 20-percent chance of precipitation and Saturday a 15-percent chance. The rest of the week is calling for a zero-percent chance. Temperatures will begin on Thursday at 83-degrees before bottoming out at 68-degrees on Friday and climbing back to 73-degrees come Sunday. Winds will be a factor early on, set at 20 miles-per-hour on Thursday. Winds will hit 18 miles-per-hour on Friday before falling to 12 miles-per-hour on Saturday and down to just six miles-per-hour on Sunday. 


Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Hit Fairway Percentage / Good Drives Gained

  • Birdie or Better Percentage

  • Proximity to the Hole from 100-150 Yards

  • Par Three Average Scoring

  • Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass (SG: PUTT Bentgrass)

  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)

  • Sand Saves Percentage

  • Bogey Avoidance


DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

With just three options in this price range this week, I’m going to lean Davis Thompson ($10,300.) Of course I like Tom Kim ($10,800) more but as a two time defending champion, his ownership is going to be through the roof. Thompson is currently fifth on tour in SG: ATG, 38th in sand saves percentage, 39th in birdie or better percentage, 44th in bogey avoidance, 47th in SG: APP, 53rd in par three average scoring, 81st in hit fairway percentage, 90th in good drives, 103rd in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards and 116th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. Thompson hasn’t missed a cut since June. That’s nine consecutive events in which he’s made the cut. He has yet to play on the Fall Series. In his run of nine consecutive cuts, he won the John Deere Classic, placed T2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and placed T12th at the Wyndham Championship. He also placed T35th here last year and T12th in the spring of 2023 at this event. 


$9,000-$9,900

I’ve not learned my lesson so I’m going back to Keith Mitchell ($9,200.) Again, with recent bias, people will look to last week where he missed the cut and to the Sanderson Farms Championship where he played himself out of the playoff on 18 on Sunday. Either way, Mitchell is still a top tier talent in this field. Outside of those previously two mentioned events, he placed 12th at the Procore Championship and T12th at the Wyndham Championship. Mitchell is currently second on Tour in birdie or better percentage, sixth in par three average scoring, ninth in SG: APP, 23rd in bogey avoidance, 29th in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 57th in good drives, 101st in sand saves percentage, 103rd in SG: ATG and 113th in both hit fairway percentage and SG: PUTT Bentgrass. Also consider Seamus Power ($9,300.) Power was one of the most popular plays in both DFS and on the betting cards last week as he went on to place T11th. He is still one of the hottest golfers in the world as he also placed T11th at the Sanderson Farms Championship, T10th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T28th at the Wyndham Championship and T37th at the 3M open. He is also currently 25th on Tour in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 30th in hit fairway percentage, 31st in bogey avoidance, 37th in sand saves percentage, 47th in SG: APP, 54th in good drives, 77th in SG: ATG, 78th in par three average scoring, 111th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass and 112th in birdie or better percentage. 


$8,000-$8,900

Leading off this price range is Jhonattan Vegas ($8,000.) Vegas is currently sixth on Tour in par three average scoring, ninth in good drives, 17th in birdie or better percentage, 22nd in bogey avoidance, 26th in SG: APP, 81st in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 94th in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 106th in hit fairway percentage, 134th in SG: ATG and 156th in sand saves percentage. Vegas has made eight consecutive cuts coming into this week. He placed T23rd in his last outing at the Sanderson Farms Championship. In that run he also placed T27th at the RBC Canadian Open, T25th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T20th at the John Deere Classic and won the 3m Open. Also consider Ben Griffin ($8,200.) Griffin comes into this week fresh off a T11th at least week’s Black Desert Championship. He also placed T37th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T7th at the Wyndham Championship. Griffin also placed T5th at the John Deere Classic. He has played this event the last two years without much success but did make the cut in 2022. He is currently 13th on Tour in bogey avoidance, 22nd in par three average scoring, 23rd in both SG: ATG, 37th in both SG: APP and proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 48th in birdie or better percentage, 73rd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 83rd in sand saves percentage, 114th in good drives and 123rd in hit fairway percentage. He’s also on the betting card at +4000.


$7,000-$7,900

My favorite in this price range is Chan Kim ($7,600.) I simply can’t get away from Chan Kim. This may be another golfer that accounts to my downfall. However, if Kevin Yu taught us anything, eventually he’ll win. Kim matches up perfectly statistically. He is currently ninth on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 11th in bogey avoidance, 15th in par-three average scoring, 16th in both good drives and SG: ATG, 32nd in good drives, 33rd in SG: APP, 49th in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 62nd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass and 65th in sand saves percentage. In other words, he’s 65th or better in each of the ten statistical categories I took into consideration this week. Kim has made four consecutive cuts coming into this week, highlighted by a T12th at the Wyndham Championship and T26th at the Procore Championship. He also recently placed T12th at the John Deere Classic and T10th at the ISCO Championship. Kim is also on my betting card at +5500. Also consider Patton Kizzire ($7,300.) Kizzire is currently sixth on Tour in birdie or better percentage, seventh in good drives, 14th in both SG: APP and sand saves percentage, 16th in bogey avoidance, 27th in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 53rd in hit fairway percentage, 67th in par three average scoring, 71st in SG: ATG and 140th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass. Kizzire has been great over this Fall Series. I know he placed T43rd last week at the Black Desert Championship but prior to that, he placed T11st at the Sanderson Farms Championship and won the Procore Championship. He also placed T8th at the Barracuda Championship. He has also made the cut in four-of-the-last-five Shriners Children’s Open events.


$6,900-

Leading off this final price range is Greyson Sigg ($6,700.) Sigg has made the cut here in three consecutive events, including a T28th at last year’s edition. He placed T11th last week at the Black Desert Championship and also placed T4th at the Procore Championship during this Fall Series. He is currently fifth on Tour in good drives, tenth in bogey avoidance, 22nd in par three average scoring, 23rd in SG: APP, 33rd in SG: ATG, 42nd in hit fairway percentage, 61st in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 85th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 145th in sand saves percentage and 159th in birdie or better percentage. He is also on my betting card at +12000. Also consider Ryan Moore ($6,600.) Moore has not been great as of late, making the cut just once in his last five events. However, Moore loves this course and event. Dating back to his victory here in 2012, he has played this event 11 times, missing the cut just twice. He has five top 15 performances in that span as well, including a T13th last year. He also placed T28th in the spring last year. Moore is currently sixth on Tour in good drives, eighth in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, tenth in hit fairway percentage, 27th in SG: APP, 31st in SG: ATG, 77th in bogey avoidance, 83rd in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 139th in par three average scoring, 165th in birdie or better percentage and 171st in sand saves percentage


Betting Card

  • Tom Kim (+1600)

  • Ben Griffin (+4000)

  • Chan Kim (+5500)

  • Ben Silverman (+6600)

  • Greyson Sigg (+12000)


Tom Kim (+1600)

As arguably Tom Kim’s biggest fan and the fact he is a two-time defending champion, I could leave a +1600 on the table. This past season has not been the best for Kim which is keeping the 22-year-old’s number manageable. He was a key contributor however for the International Team at this year’s Presidents Cup and also placed eighth at The Olympics. Kim didn’t make it past the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs but this is the perfect place for the South Korean to re-spark his form. He is currently 35th on Tour in hit fairway percentage, 42nd in both birdie or better percentage and proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards, 48th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 53rd in SG: APP, 74th in SG: ATG, 78th in par-three average scoring, 94th in sand saves percentage, 98th in good drives and 139th in bogey avoidance.


Ben Silverman (+6600)

We last saw Silverman at the Procore Championship where he placed T4th. He has also made the cut in nine-of-this-last-ten events. Silverman checks all the boxes I’m looking for this week. He’s currently fourth on Tour in bogey avoidance, seventh in sand saves percentage, 20th in good drives, 22nd in par three average scoring, 27th in SG: PUTT Bentgrass, 46th in hit fairway percentage, 64th in SG: ATG, 85th in birdie or better percentage, 98th in SG: APP and 111th in proximity to the hole from 100-150 yards.

84 views0 comments

©2018 by We Know Fantasy. Proudly created with Wix.com

  • twitter
bottom of page