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Writer's pictureNate (@WeKnowFantasy)

Out of the Rough: The American Express (2025)


Following two weeks in Hawaii, the PGA Tour heads to the continental United States for the first time during the 2025 season for this week’s The American Express.


The American Express also serves as the first Pro-Am of the season, as each of the first three days will see a professional paired with an amateur.


Also unique to this event is the fact that it is staged over three different courses across the first three days with the cut coming after 54-holes. 


Across each of the first three days, golfers will play each of the Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course and the La Quinta Country Club. Although different, each course is part of PGA West and are essentially different forms of birdie-fest type venues.


Professionals who make the cut will then return to the Stadium Course for the final round on Sunday.


Each of the first three days will see two professionals and two amateurs per hole, which also makes each round on average, the longest of the season.


The cut will consist of the top 70 golfers plus ties.


It’s also worth noting that there are only strokes gained data for the Stadium Course this week.


The Field

It was originally reported following a palm injury and eventual surgery, Scottie Scheffler would make his 2025 debut at this event but it has since been reported that he will not be teeing it up this week.


Despite Scheffler’s absence, a star-studded lineup is set to take on the various courses of PGA West this week.


Leading the charge is World No. 2 and defending PGA Championship and The Open Championship winner Xander Schauffele. 


Other notable names teeing it up this week include Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Tom Kim and Justin Thomas.


Nick Dunlap capped a historic performance a season ago, claiming victory at this event as an amateur. Doing so as the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson in 1991.


Dunlap turned professional shortly after that victory and will be back this week to defend his title.


Other former winners of this event teeing it up this week include Si Woo Kim (2021,) Jason Dufner (2016,) Bill Haas (2010 & 2015,) Jhonattan Vegas (2011) and Charley Hoffman (2007.)


The Course(s)

Although the event takes place over three different courses, for the sake of this article I will be focusing on the Stadium Course due to it being played twice this week and the only one of the courses to have strokes gained data.


The Stadium Course

This is easily the most difficult of the three venues golfers will play this week.


It is a Pete Dye design that emulates TPC Sawgrass - home of THE PLAYERS Championship.


It plays as a Par 72 at 7,187 yards,


Water is the course's main line of defense as it comes into play on seven holes. Avoiding the water will be the biggest challenge golfers face this week.


Beyond the water, this course’s other main line of defense is its par-threes. Three of the par-threes featured this week rank as the first, second and fourth toughest holes on the entire course.


Being able to navigate these challenging par-threes will be the key to an hopeful winner.


Overall, there are ten holes at the Stadium Course with a scoring average below par.


Nicklaus Tournament Course

As previously mentioned, both the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the La Quinta Country Club are much easier than the Stadium Course.


The Nicklaus Tournament Course plays as a Par 72 at 7,147 yards


This is also the only course on the PGA Tour to feature two island greens. 


La Quinta Country Club

This is the easiest of the three courses and at one point, between 2017 and 2020, played as the easiest par-72 on the entire PGA Tour.


It plays as a par-72 at 7,060 yards.


Both the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the La Quinta Country Club offer very low scoring, as they both feature a scoring average of -2.1. 


They also share the same concentration of short par-fours and reachable par-fives.


Golfers must capitalize on their two rounds at these two courses if they want a chance to win.


Each of the three courses feature Bermuda greens and as this event lines up to be a birdie-fest, putting will be the difference.


The Weather

As of the time of writing this, there is at most a ten-percent chance of precipitation on Saturday with just a five-percent chance on Sunday. Thursday and Friday calls for a zero-percent chance of precipitation. Temperatures will begin at the highest on Thursday at 72-degrees before gradually decreasing to 63-degrees come Sunday. Winds will be the lowest on Thursday at five miles-per-hour before gradually increasing to ten miles-per-hour at the highest on Sunday. In all, a perfect four days for some California golf this week.


Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)

  • Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)

  • Hit Fairway Percentage

  • Birdie or Better Percentage

  • Par 5 Average Scoring

  • Par 3 Average Scoring

  • Sand Saves Percentage

  • Scrambling

  • Proximity to the Hole from 150-175 Yards

  • Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)


DFS Suggestions

$10,000+

As has become the norm, whenever Xander Schauffele ($11,400) is in a field, I’m going to play him in DFS. He’s darn near an automatic top five. Now I know he placed T40th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions and T41st at the ZOZO Championship but his 2024 as a whole can’t be ignored. On top of winning the PGA Championship and The Open Championship, He placed in the top 25 in 20-of-21 tournaments. He also placed top ten in 15 of them, top five in nine of them and was the runner-up three times. He also played this event each of the last two seasons, placing third in each of them. Schauffele also finished the 2024 season first on Tour in par three average scoring and scrambling, sixth in SG: APP, 11th in birdie or better percentage, 29th in par five average scoring, 35th in GIR%, 44th in sand saves percentage, 58th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 83rd in hit fairway percentage and 121st in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards. I know he is the most expensive guy by a large margin but that scares a lot of people off. There’s other ways to save money in your lineup this week, just place Schauffele. Also consider Sungjae Im ($10,300.) I would have loved to have Im on the betting card but his odds were way too slim for my liking. Either way, he’s still playable in DFS, especially at $10,300. Forewarning, he is going to be one of the most widely owned guys so tread with caution. He’s played this event each of the past five seasons, placing 25th in 2024, 18th in 2023, 11th in 2022, 12th in 2021 and tenth in 2020. He most recently placed third at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also placed T9th at the Hero World Challenge, T13th at the ZOZO Championship, seventh at the TOUR Championship and T11th at the BMW Championship. He finished last season 16th on Tour in sand saves percentage, 26th in scrambling, 35th in birdie or better percentage, 44th in hir fairway percentage, 69th in both SG: PUTT Bermuda and par five average scoring, 75th in par three average scoring, 99th in SG: APP, 106th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards and 145th in GIR%. 


$9,000-$9,900

Leading off this price range we’ll go with Max Greyserman ($9,200.) If you’re playing Schauffele and need to save a few dollars, Greyserman may be the answer. He finished last season eighth on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 11th in par five average scoring, 17th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 18th in par three average scoring, 46th in scrambling, 50th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 60th in GIR%, 100th in sand saves percentage, 104th in SG: APP and 156th in hit fairway percentage. He’s played this event just once prior, making the cut last season. Greyserman placed T24th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions most recently and also placed fourth at the World Wide Technology Championship and T2nd at the ZOZO Championship during the PGA Tour’s Fall Series. Also consider Tony Finau ($9,500.) I tried to talk myself off of Finau but I simply couldn’t. We last saw him at The Sentry Tournament of Champions where he placed T15th. Last season, Finau was quietly rather good. Outside of not having a victory, he did have 15 top 25’s, five top tens, three top fives and a runner-up. He finished last season second on Tour in SG: APP, third in par five average scoring, 16th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 18th in birdie or better percentage, 52nd in both sand saves percentage and GIR%, 108th in par three average scoring, 122nd in scrambling, 126th in hit fairway percentage and 157th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. He did have a strong showing with the flat stick at The Sentry, where he gained a total of 4.244 strokes on the greens (or 1.061 per round.) He’s also played this event each of the last five years placing 25th a season ago, 16th in 2023, 40th in 2022, fourth in 2021 and 14th in 2020. He is also on my betting card at +2500.


$8,000-$8,900

First up in this price range, we have Davis Thompson ($8,900.) Thompson is one of the most well rounded golfers in the game. He finished last season 14th on Tour in par five average scoring, 22nd in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 38th in SG: APP, 44th in birdie or better percentage, 46th in sand saves percentage, 59th in GIR%, 61st in par three average scoring, 68th in scrambling, 70th in hit fairway percentage and 91st in SG: PUTT Bermuda. In other words, he’s above average in each of the ten statistical categories I took into consideration this week. He did miss the cut last week and placed T36th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions but also placed 21st at this event last year and second in 2023. Thompson is also on my betting card at +4500 Also consider J.J. Spaun ($8,600.) Spaun finished last season 16th on Tour in GIR%, 17th in SG: APP, 52nd in birdie or better percentage, 65th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 69th in par five average scoring, 71st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 75th in par three average scoring, 80th in sand saves percentage, 90th in hit fairway percentage and 131st in scrambling. Now, short term memory will tell us about his late collapse at last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii where he led by two strokes going into the back nine to eventually play himself out of the playoff, but he did place T3rd. He also placed T6th at the ZOZO Championship during the PGA Tour’s Fall Series. He hasn’t played this event since 2022 where he finished 25th.


$7,000-$7,900

Leading off this price range we have Mac Meissner ($7,400.) Meissner played himself into contention at last week’s Sony Open in Hawaii mid-way through Sunday before faltering down the stretch, including a four putt at one point. He finished the week T21st. He will also be making his debut at this event this week. Meissner finished last season 21st on Tour in par five average scoring, 26th in SG: APP, 30th in par three average scoring, 34th in GIR%, 35th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 38th in scrambling, 48th in sand saves percentage, 58th in hit fairway percentage, 72nd in birdie or better percentage and 73rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. In other words, he’s above average in each of the ten statistical categories I took into consideration this week. Also consider Michael Kim ($7,200.) Despite missing the cut last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii, Kim had an impressive run to cap his PGA Tour Fall Series. He placed T11th at The RSM Classic, T12th at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, T30th at the World Wide Technology Championship and T5th at the Shriners Children’s Open. He also placed sixth here a season ago. Kim finished last season sixth on Tour in par three average scoring, ninth in birdie or better percentage, 16th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 28th in GIR%, 29th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 37th in both SG: APP and sand saves percentage, 45th in par five average scoring, 132nd in scrambling and 157th in hit fairway percentage. Kim is also on my betting card at +14000.


$6,900-

When it comes to this final price range, I like to find guys who excel at one aspect of what I took into consideration each week. With that being said, first up we have Ben Silverman ($6,600.) Silverman finished last season first on Tour in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards. He was also eighth in sand saves percentage, 18th in both par three average scoring and scrambling, 29th in GIR%, 52nd in hit fairway percentage, 61st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 88th in birdie or better percentage, 95th in par five average scoring and 110th in SG: APP. He made the cut last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii and also placed T4th at the Procore Championship during the PGA Tour Fall Series. He did play this event a season ago where he missed the cut. Also consider Carson Young ($6,700.) Young finished last season ninth on Tour in hit fairway percentage, 28th in birdie or better percentage, 44th in GIR%, 45th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 52nd in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 60th in par five average scoring, 73rd in sand saves percentage, 85th in SG: APP, 94th in par three average scoring and 109th in scrambling. Not a bad statistical category for someone in this price range. He also placed 17th here a season ago. He missed the cut last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii but did place T2nd at the World Wide Technology Championship and T11th at the Black Desert Championship during the PGA Tour’s Fall Series. 


Betting Card

  • Tony Finau (+2500)

  • Davis Thompson (+4500)

  • Ben Griffin (+7000)

  • Tom Hoge (+7000)

  • Michael Kim (+14000)


Ben Griffin (+7000)

Griffin placed T45th last week at the Sony Open in Hawaii but recently had a strong showing across the PGA Tour’s Fall Series. He placed T15th at The RSM Classic, eighth at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, T24th at the World Wide Technology Championship, T22nd at the ZOZO Championship and T11th at the Black Desert Championship. He also placed ninth here a season ago and 32nd in 2023. Griffin finished last season 18th on Tour in par three average scoring, 23rd in scrambling, 29th in par five average scoring, 34th in SG: APP, 37th in birdie or better percentage, 39th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 40th in GIR%, 83rd in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 98th in sand saves percentage and 116th in hit fairway percentage. 


Tom Hoge (+7000)

Hoge has opened his 2025 PGA Tour season with a T45th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a T8th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He’s also played this event each of the past five seasons, placing 17th a season ago, 32nd in 2023, second in 2022 and sixth in 2020. He did miss the cut here in 2021. Hoge finished last season fourth on Tour in SG: APP, 32nd in birdie or better percentage, 37th in par five average scoring, 75th in par three average scoring, 87th in GIR%, 94th in hit fairway percentage, 107th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 108th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards, 118th in sand saves percentage and 128th in scrambling.

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