After seeing one of the weakest fields in recent history on the PGA Tour last week, we bounce back with a full field elevated event in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge was purchased by Arnold Palmer in 1974 and the event has used his name since 2007.
This event typically does not draw the names as it has this season being the week prior to The Players but with the new elevated status and a $20 million purse, all eligible players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings will be in attendance.
Due to this, many of the World’s best have not played the event or course all that much. Names such as John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth have no more than one prior appearance here.
Scottie Scheffeler is the defending champion, as he used the Arnold Palmer Invitational as his second victory on Tour. Other past winners in this week’s field include Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Jason Day and Martin Laird.
If we take a look at each of the last six winners, each of them has posted a top-15 finish at this event in the past.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge plays at a lengthy 7,400 yards and par 72.
It joins the Tour’s “grinder” portion of the schedule as making par at most holes will be considered a good score.
To put into perspective how difficult this course can be, over the last six years, only Kevin Chappell has registered four rounds in the 60s in the same event.
We’ll see plenty of approach shots from 200-plus yards due to the length of the course. Bombers off the tee too will get a leg up, getting down the fairways.
As well as getting off the tee with distance, accuracy too will be key. Bay hill is known for its notoriously thick rough. Missing the fairway will be detrimental this week.
Bay Hill features fast and firm Bermuda greens. Approach shots will be taken with a “bump-and-run” approach as high-arching shots tend to bounce off the firm greens.
The course also features an extensive amount of penalty areas and water is in play on nine of the holes. It too is littered with sand traps.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in three of the last four years
The weather will almost certainly be a factor this week as well. Last year the weather took a turn for the worse over the weekend, causing the event to turn into a scrambling contest with the greens nearly becoming impossible to reach in regulation.
In years where weather is a factor, the median score has fallen to plus-five.
As for weather this week, highs will begin in the high 80’s-to-low 90’s between Thursday and Saturday before cooling off to the high 70’s on Sunday. At this point, Friday’s weather seems to be a problem with winds expected to reach 21 miles-per-hour. Winds are expected to reach 16 miles-per-hour on Saturday as well. Needless to say, the weather will play its part this week.
Important statistics to consider this week include:
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT)
Proximity to the Hole From 200+ Yards
Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)
Strokes Gained: Putting Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)
Bogey Avoidance
Average Par 5 Scoring
Sand Saves Percentage
Average Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Scrambling (SG: SCR)
$10,000+
We have the Tour’s current “big three” in this price range and can only suggest two. At this point, we have to include Jon Rahm ($11,500.) He’s currently the best golfer on Tour and I don’t think there’s any debating that. He’s also back at the top of the Official World Golf Rankings. He’s fresh off a win at the Genesis Invitational and has won the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express on the calendar year as well. Outside of those tournaments, his worst finish on the calendar year was T7th at the Farmers Insurance Open and he also placed third at the WM Phoenix Open. He has played this event once before, last year, where he placed T17th. He’s currently first on Tour in average par five scoring, fifth in bogey avoidance, sixth in both average driving distance and SG: APP, seventh in SG: OTT, tenth in SG: SCR, 16th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 20th in sand saves percentage, 22nd in SG: ATG and 76th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Like I already said, anytime Rahm is in the field, we have to include him. Also consider Rory McIlroy ($10,900.) McIlroy has struggled, at least to his standards, in his two tournaments on the calendar year going T32nd at the WM Phoenix Open and T29th at the Genesis Invitational. He does have a win on the season, winning the CJ Cup in South Carolina back in October. He has played in this event every year since 2015 with a ton of success. He won the event in 2018 and has three top fives, five top tens and seven top 13 finishes in those eight years. He’s currently tops on tour in average driving distance, fifth in average par five scoring, eighth in SG: ATG, ninth in SG: APP, tenth in SG: OTT, 28th in SG: SCR, 35th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 36th in bogey avoidance, 52nd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards and 64th in sand saves percentage. With his proven success at this event, he’s sure to have a good showing this week.
$9,000-$9,900
Leading off this price range is Tony Finau ($9,300) who comes third in our model this week to just Rahm and McIlroy. Finau is currently fifth on Tour in SG: APP, seventh in average par five scoring, ninth in SG: PUTT Bermuda, tenth in bogey avoidance, 14th in SG: SCR, 25th in SG: OTT, 30th in sand saves percentage, 61st in SG: ATG, 68th in average driving distance and 103rd in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards. Finau hasn’t played in the event since 2020 where he missed the cut and did play between 2015 and 2017 without much success. However, Finau is twice the golfer he was since. His worst finish on the calendar year is a T20th at the Genesis Invitational. He’s also gone T7th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, T9th at the Farmers Insurance Open, T14th at the WM Phoenix Open and T16th at The American Express. Also consider Patrick Cantlay ($9,100.) Cantlay is currently second on Tour in both Bogey Avoidance and average par five scoring, sixth in SG: SCR, 12th in SG: OTT, 17th in average driving distance, 19th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 45th in SG: ATG and 80th in SG: APP. His score in our model is brought down by his 140th ranking in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 167th in sand saves percentage. Cantlay has actually never played this event before. He’s fresh off a third place finish at the Genesis Invitational after missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. On the season he also placed second at the Shriners Children’s Open in October.
$8,000-$8,900
I’m liking this price range in these elevated events. There’s a lot of great value to be found, such as Jason Day ($8,500.) Day continues to appear in this series in this price range and that’s for good reason. In four events since The American Express, his worst finish has been T18th at that event. Since, he’s gone T7th at the Farmers Insurance Open, fifth at the WM Phoenix Open and T9th at the Genesis Invitational. We can’t forget that he’s also a former winner of this event, winning it back in 2016. Between 2015 and 2018 his worst finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was T23rd as well. Day is currently fourth on Tour in SG: SCR, sixth in bogey avoidance, 21st in SG: APP, 22nd in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 27th in SG: OTT, 44th in sand saves percentage, 62nd in both average par five scoring and average driving distance, 79th in SG: ATG and 117th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards. Also consider Sungjae Im ($8,900.) It wasn’t that long ago that Im went T18th at The American Express, T4th at the Farmers Insurance Open and T6th at the WM Phoenix Open. He struggled a bit his last two outings at the Genesis Invitational and Honda Classic but he still made the cut at those two events. He has played this event the last five years, with back-to-back third place finishes in 2019 and 2020. Im is currently third on tour in sand saves percentage, seventh in average par five scoring, 12th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 16th in bogey avoidance, 19th in SG: SCR, 24th in SG: OTT, 60th in SG: APP and 76th in average driving distance. His score in our model is hurt by his 156th ranking in SG: PUTT Bermuda but a lot of that has to do with his struggles last week at the Honda Classic. With his past success at this event, I think he’s in line for a big week.
$7,000-$7,900
I was super high on Thomas Detry ($7,200) a week ago before he withdrew from the Honda Classic after shooting plus-six in the opening round. We’re unsure why he withdrew but his game lines up well for the Arnold Palmer Invitational as well. He’s currently tenth on Tour in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 15th in SG: SCR, 17th in sand saves percentage, 18th in bogey avoidance, 24th in average driving distance, 60th in SG: ATG, 61st in SG: OTT, 77th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 106th in SG: APP and 125th in average par five scoring. Outside of last week, Detry has made the cut in each of the nine events he’s played on the season. His worst finish on the calendar year has been a T37th at both the Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His season has been highlighted by a second place finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and a T9th at the Sanderson Farmers Championship. Also consider Wyndham Clark ($7,500.) Clark is currently seventh in average driving distance, 24th in average par five scoring, 25th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 57th in both SG: OTT and SG: ATG, 68th in SG: APP, 75th in bogey avoidance, 90th in sand saves percentage and 91st in SG: PUTT Bermuda. In other words, he’s above average in each of the statistical categories we’re taking into consideration this week. Clark has made eight straight cuts, including a T10th at the WM Phoenix Open a few weeks ago. Clark has played this event twice before, making the cut once.
$6,900-
Leading off this price range is Joseph Bramlett ($6,700.) Bramlett has made eight straight cuts on the season and has made the cut in each of five tournaments he’s played in the calendar year. The run of made cuts is highlighted by a T7th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a T13th at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s currently 24th on Tour in average driving distance, 29th in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 32nd in sand saves percentage, 42nd in SG: APP, 47th in SG: OTT, 53rd in average par five scoring, 66th in SG: ATG, 73rd in bogey avoidance and 82nd in SG: SCR. His score in our model is hindered by a 172nd placement in SG: PUTT Bermuda. If he can get a few putts to fall in his favor this week at just $6,700, he could be the difference in a good DFS week. Also consider Ben Griffin ($6,700.) Griffin had a decent showing last week at the Honda Classic as he placed T21st. Prior to that he did miss the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am but did make nine consecutive cuts before that. He’s currently 37th on Tour in proximity to the hole from 200-plus yards, 38th in SG: APP, 63rd in both SG: PUTT Bermuda and bogey avoidance, 68th in SG: SCR, 70th in SG: ATG, 79th in sand saves percentage, 80th in average driving distance, 82nd in SG: OTT and 90th in average par five scoring. Like Clark, Griffin is above average in each of the statistical categories we’re taking into consideration this week.
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