Atlast, we’ve made it to one of the biggest weeks in the sport of golf.
Although we’ve seen several Signature Events to this point of the PGA Schedule, none have been as big as what is in line for this week.
THE PLAYERS Championship, informally known as the “fifth major,” is finally here as a full field of PGA Tour players takes to the infamous TPC Sawgrass this week.
In the previous signature events - The Sentry Tournament of Champions, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational - we’ve seen limited fields. That won’t be the case this week as 144 golfers will head to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
THE PLAYERS Championship also holds the biggest purse in the sport. The purse sits at $25 million as the eventual winner will take home $4.5 million and the top five will all clear $1 million.
The other Signature Events hold $20 million purses and the Majors range from $16.5 million to $20 million.
This once served as the first event of the PGA Tour schedule where we would all see the World’s best in one spot heading into the Major season. With the inclusion of the Elevated Events two years ago and the Signature Events last year into this year, the allure of THE PLAYERS is dismissed a bit.
It is still one of the premier events of the Tour and we could be in line for some fireworks this week. Or so we hope.
The Field
As previously mentioned, this is the first and only Signature Event of the season where we’ll see a full field of 144 golfers.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler comes into this week as the two-time-defending champion, holding off all of Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele and Wyndham Clark by one stroke. Clark infamously nearly holed out from just shy of the green to tie Scheffler last year.
Scheffler dominated this event in 2023, topping runner-up Tyrrell Hatton by five strokes.
Not only being a Signature Event but one of the biggest events, with the biggest purse in the world of golf, all of the PGA Tour's best will be in attandance this week.
The likes of Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, PAtrick Cantlay and others will look to dehrone Scheffler as the king of TPC Sawgras.
Other former winners of this event teeing it up this week include Justin Thomas (2021,) Rory McIlroy (2019,) Webb Simpson (2018,) Si Woo Kim (2017,) Jason Day (2016,) Rickie Fowler (2015,) Matt Kuchar (2012) and Adam Scott (2004.)
The Course
TPC Sawgrass plays as a par 72 at just under 7,200 yards and requires a well rounded golf game to be in contention.
This is Pete Dye’s most famous design and like the majority of his designs, the course baits golfers into facing the extensive list of hazards head on.
The course was built simply to be a state-of-the-art tournament golf course to host THE PLAYERS Championship.
What we got from the 1970’s construction of this course is a modern marvel and the quintessential tournament stadium course that features some of the most pristine manicuring in golf.
The course is one of, if not the biggest, risk-reward type tracks on Tour as the constant hazard threat makes for a very volatile leaderboard.
There is water in play on 17 of the 18 holes at TPC Sawgrass. Quirky greenside bunkers that don’t allow for a smooth up-and-down too are included in the list of hazards.
TPC Sawgrass mitigates the advantage of longer hitters off the tee with the hazards and a plethora of doglegs going both left and right.
It however does reward those with elite approach and short games.
The par fives are arguably the most important holes on the course in terms of scoring and any hopeful winner must take advantage of them.
Along with the par fives, the short par four 12th hole too much be taken advantage of.
TPC Sawgrass is most notably known for its par three island green that may be the most recognizable hole in all of golf.
Included in the final three holes is the island green, but the final three hole stretch is simply one of the best closing stretches on Tour.
Weather will almost certainly be a factor as we saw three years ago. The weather made the event nearly unplayable for half the field.
Wind is often up and can play a big part in the event. However, since the events move to March, the greens play much softer, making controlling approach shots and of course putting, much easier.
The winning score of the event will hover around the mid-teens under par as the average score of the event since its move to March has been -16. Last year was the first time the winning score had reached -20 in the history of THE PLAYERS Championship.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, the weather looks to be clear for at least the first two days of the event. Thursday currently calls for a ten-percent chance of precipitation as Friday calls for a 15-percent chance. Saturday is calling for just a five-percent chance of precipitation but is calling for the highest winds at 18 miles-per-hour. Sunday is calling for the highest chance of precipitation at 35-percent with a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Winds are set for 15 miles-per-hour for Sunday as well. Winds are set at ten miles-per-hour for Thursday and 11 miles-per-hour for Friday. Temperatures will begin at 75-degrees on Thursday and will gradually increase to 78-degrees on Saturday before calling to 76-degrees on Sunday. In all, the weather will have a say in who wins this week.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) / Driving Accuracy
Bogey Avoidance
Par Five Average Scoring
Scrambling
Strokes Gained: Around the Green (SG: ATG)
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)
Ball Striking
Birdie or Better Percentage
Sand Saves Percentage
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
Depending how people value Xander Schauffele in just his second event back from injury, Collin Morikawa ($10,500) could be the lowest owned player in this price range. He is fresh off a heart-breaking second place finish last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also placed 17th at both The Genesis Invitational and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this season. He also placed second at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. His course history here isn’t anything crazy however. He placed 45th here a season ago, 13th in 2023, missed the cut in 2022 and placed 41st in 2021. However, his course history at Bay Hill last week was much worse and he finished second. Morikawa is currently second on Tour in birdie or better percentage, fourth in driving accuracy, sixth in SG: APP, seventh in bogey avoidance, ninth in scrambling, 14th in par five average scoring, 23rd in SG: OTT, 35th in both SG: ATG and ball striking, 46th in sand saves percentage and 126th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Also consider Ludvig Aberg ($10,200.) Aberg placed 22nd last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but prior to that won The Genesis Invitational, placed 42nd at the Farmers Insurance Open and fifth at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He’s played here just once prior, placing eighth in his debut a season ago. Aberg is currently 11th on Tour in sand saves percentage, 12th in birdie or better percentage, 21st in SG: OTT, 83rd in both par five average scoring and SG: PUTT Bermuda, 91st in SG: APP, 122nd in SG: ATG, 131st in scrambling, 142nd in ball striking, 154th in driving accuracy and 171st in bogey avoidance. He is also on my betting card at +2000.
$9,000-$9,900
Kicking off this price range we have last week’s winner, Russell Henley ($9,500.) Prior to winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he also placed sixth at the Cognizant Classic, 39th at The Genesis Invitational, fifth at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tenth at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 30th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. His history here is a complete mixed bag of results. He missed the cut in 2024, 2021 and 2019, but placed 19th in 2023 and 13th in 2022. He is currently seventh on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 14th in driving accuracy, 24th in SG: APP, 28th in SG: ATG, 33rd in bogey avoidance, 44th in sand saves percentage, 58th in both SG: PUTT Bermuda and ball striking, 87th in scrambling, 91st in par-five average scoring and 99th in SG: OTT. In other words, he’s average or above average in each of the 11 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. Also consider Daniel Berger ($9,600.) Berger has strung together four consecutive top 25 finishes coming into this week. He placed 15th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 25th at the Cognizant Classic, 12th at The Genesis Invitational and second at the WM Phoenix Open. He also placed 21st at The American Express this season. He hasn’t played here since 2022 but he placed 13th in 2022, ninth in 2021 and 67th in 2019. Berger is currently 13th on Tour in scrambling, 15th in driving accuracy, 18th in bogey avoidance, 24th in SG: OTT, 29th in SG: ATG, 32nd in ball striking, 60th in SG: APP, 107th in birdie or better percentage, 112th in par five average scoring, 114th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 145th in sand saves percentage.
$8,000-$8,900
My first play in this price range is Sepp Straka ($8,600.) Straka is currently fourth on Tour in birdie or better percentage, ninth in both SG: APP and par five average scoring, 11th in both driving accuracy and bogey avoidance, 16th in ball striking, 24th in sand saves percentage, 62nd in SG: OTT, 66th in scrambling, 91st in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 99th in SG: ATG. Like Henley, Straka is at least average in each of the 11 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. He also placed 16th here a season ago and ninth in 2022. He placed 65th here in 2023 and missed the cut in 2021 however. He’s fresh off a fifth place finish at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. He also placed 11th at the Cognizant Classic, 15th at the WM Phoenix Open, seventh at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro- Am, 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He, of course, won The American Express earlier this season. Straka is also on my betting card at +6000. Also consider Robert MacIntyre ($8,300.) MacIntyre is currently fifth on Tour in SG: OTT, 12th in ball striking, 20th in driving accuracy, 24th in bogey avoidance, 42nd in par five average scoring, 43rd in birdie or better percentage, 44th in SG: APP, 56th in scrambling, 104th in SG: ATG, 108th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 135th in sand saves percentage. He’s played this event twice prior, missing the cut both times in 2024 and 2021. He placed 11th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. MacIntyre also placed sixth at the WM Phoenix Open, 40th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 53rd at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions this season.
$7,000-$7,900
Keith Mitchell ($7,000) is my first play in this price range. We haven’t seen him since the Cognizant Classic where he placed 42nd. Prior to that, he placed 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Pro-Am, 21st at The American Express and 30th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s made the cut here in four-of-the-last-five seasons, highlighted by a 13th place finish in 2022. He missed the cut in 2021. Mitchell is currently third on Tour in all three of SG: OTT, bogey avoidance and scrambling. He is also 14th in ball striking, 18th in par five average scoring, 26th in sand saves percentage, 55th in birdie or better percentage, 73rd in SG: ATG, 107th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 119th in SG: APP and 136th in driving accuracy. Also consider Nick Taylor ($7,300.) Taylor placed 31st in his last outing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Prior to that he placed ninth at The Genesis Invitational, 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 33rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 12th at The American Express, first at the Sony Open in Hawaii and 48th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. He placed 26th here a season ago, 48th in 2021 and 16th in 2019. He missed the cut in 2023 and didn’t play here in 2022. Taylor is currently third on Tour in SG: APP, 18th in driving accuracy, 21st in bogey avoidance, 33rd in birdie or better percentage, 45th in scrambling, 46th in both par five average scoring and ball striking, 105th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 106th in SG: OTT, 128th in SG: ATG and 130th in sand saves percentage.
$6,000-$6,900
We’ll lead this price range off with Ben Griffin ($6,700.) Griffin is currently 15th on Tour in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 32nd in ball striking, 44th in driving accuracy, 55th in SG: ATG, 83rd in bogey avoidance, 89th in both SG: APP and SG: OTT, 97th in par five average scoring, 105th in both birdie or better percentage and sand saves percentage and 128th in SG: ATG. He’s played this event twice prior, missing the cut a season ago and placing 35th in 2023. Griffin comes into this week making the cut in six consecutive events and eight-of-nine events on the season. He placed 45th last week at The Arnold Palmer Invitational but prior to that placed fourth at both the Cognizant Classic and Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He also placed seventh at The American Express this season. Also consider Harry Hall ($6,500.) Hall is currently third on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 24th in par five average scoring, 26th in SG: ATG, 27th in bogey avoidance, 28th in scrambling, 31st in sand saves percentage, 50th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 110th in SG: APP, 121st in ball striking, 134th in driving accuracy and 151st in SG: OTT. He’s played this event just once prior, missing the cut a season ago. Hall had an insane early season run, placing eighth at The Sentry Tournament of Champions, tenth at The Sony Open in Hawaii and 21st at The American Express. He’s come back to earth a bit since, missing the cut in two-of-his-next-four events but did place 34th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He missed the cut in his last outing at the Cognizant Classic.
$5,900-
For majors and these larger events (such as THE PLAYERS Championship,) DraftKings offers a $5,000 price range. This is where things get fun. First up we have Alex Smalley ($5,400.) Smalley last played at the Cognizant Classic where he placed 18th. Prior to that he placed tenth at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, 21st at the WM Phoenix Open, 11th at The American Express and 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He's missed just one cut so far this season and that was at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s played here just twice prior, missing the cut a season ago and placing 65th in 2023. Smalley is currently ninth on Tour in both bogey avoidance and SG: ATG, tenth in ball striking, 11th in both SG: OTT and sand saves percentage, 14th in both par five average scoring and scrambling, 26th in driving accuracy, 29th in birdie or better percentage, 73rd in SG: APP and 93rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. In other words, he’s at least average in each of the 11 statistical categories I took into consideration this week. Not a bad resume for someone in this price range. Speaking of good resumes in this price range, I have to talk about Michael Kim ($5,900,) although his ownership number will be too high to play in this price range. Kim’s recent five-event stretch is essentially unmatched on the PGA Tour. He placed fourth last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, sixth at the Cognizant Classic, 13th at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld, 13th at The Genesis Invitational and second at the WM Phoenix Open. That’s five straight top-13 finishes with three top sixes, two top fives and a runner-up for someone in this price range. Over the past five seasons he’s played this event twice, missing the cut both times (2024 and 2019.) Kim is currently first on Tour in bogey avoidance, fourth in scrambling, sixth in sand saves percentage, 17th in SG: ATG, 20th in SG: APP, 36th in SG: OTT, 41st in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 46th in par five average scoring, 65th in ball striking, 93rd in driving accuracy and 139th in birdie or better percentage.
Betting Card
Ludvig Aberg (+2000)
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)*
Sepp Straka (+6000)
Tom Kim (+8000)
Aaron Rai (+10000)
Brian Harman (+12500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)
This was a future bet I placed after the won The Sentry Tournament of Champions to kick-off the 2025 PGA Tour season. He’s still available on most books between +2500 and +3500. There is some concern of a lingering neck injury that’s creeping up on him which saw him play poorly in years past. However, he’s won with reports of this lingering injury previously (most notably The Genesis Invitational in 2024.) Matsuyama is currently first on Tour in scrambling, second in sand saves percentage, sixth in SG: ATG, 13th in par five average scoring, 21st in bogey avoidance, 23rd in SG: APP, 46th in birdie or better percentage, 107th in SG: OTT, 168th in ball striking and 170th in driving accuracy. His course history too is rather good. He placed sixth here a season ago, fifth in 2023 and eighth in 2019. On the season he has won The Sentry Tournament of Champions and placed 16th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, 32nd at the Farmers Insurance Open, 48th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 13th at The Genesis Invitational and 22nd at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Tom Kim (+8000)
This is more so fear-of-missing-out on my favorite golfer but with a price tag of +8000, there’s a lot of value there for Tom Kim. He is currently 20th on Tour in SG: APP, 35th in ball striking, 82nd in driving accuracy, 88th in sand saves percentage, 104th in SG: OTT, 113th in birdie or better percentage, 126th in scrambling, 146th in bogey avoidance, 149th in both par five average scoring and SG: ATG and 153rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. He missed the cut in his last outing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Prior to that he placed 44th at The Genesis Invitational, 44th at the WM Phoenix Open and seventh at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s played this event just once prior, placing 51st in 2023.
Aaron Rai (+10000)
This was my first click when I loaded the odds. Rai is currently eighth on Tour in driving accuracy, 28th in SG: APP, 29th in birdie or better percentage, 46th in both SG: OTT and par five average scoring, 85th in bogey avoidance, 98th in sand saves percentage, 124th in scrambling, 130th in SG: ATG and 136th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. He most recently placed 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and fourth at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. He also placed 37th at The Genesis Invitational, 40th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 15th at The Sentry Tournament of Champions. In the two times he’s played this event, he placed 35th last year and 19th in 2023.
Brian Harman (+12500)
Another easy click for me was Brian Harman. He has fantastic course history here. He placed second a season ago, 44th in 2023, 63rd in 2022, 35th in 2021 and eighth in 2019. He placed 40th last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 32nd at the Cognizant Classic, 17th at The Genesis Invitational, 25th at the WM Phoenix Open, 53rd at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 21st at the Sony Open in Hawaii this season. Harman is currently 24th on Tour in bogey avoidance, 37th in sand saves percentage, 56th in driving accuracy, 62nd in SG: APP, 65th in SG: ATG, 71st in scrambling, 82nd in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 95th in ball striking, 112th in SG: OTT, 133rd in par five average scoring and 150th in birdie or better percentage.
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