The Fall Series of the PGA Tour looks to come to an end this week with The RSM Classic.
The RSM Classic will put a cap to not only the Fall Series but also the 2024 PGA Tour season as a whole.
Historically speaking, this event was once a laid back affair that had a tranquil vibe on the coast of Georgia but with the added implications of this Fall Swing, the pressure will be high this week.
The top 125 of the FedEx Cup Fall standings come Sunday will receive full exemption for the 2024 PGA Tour season. Those within the top 125 will qualify for every full-field event as well as THE PLAYERS.
Additionally, those within the top 50 will qualify for the Tour’s Signature Events and those in positions 51-to-60 will qualify for two of the Signature Events - The Genesis Invitational and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The Field
This will undoubtedly be the best field we’ve seen across the PGA Tour’s Fall Series this week.
Ludvig Aberg comes in as the defending champion, as he used the 2023 edition of this event to claim his maiden PGA Tour victory. He also comes in as the odds-on-favorite to win this week and make it back-to-back RSM Classic victories.
Joining Aberg is a slew of premier PGA Tour talents including Davis Thompson, Denny McCarthy, Brian Harman, Si Woo Kim and Matt Wallace.
Other notable names teeing it up this week include Harris English, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Mackenzie Hughes and Maverick McNealy.
As previously mentioned, there is a lot to play for for many of those teeing it up this week.
The likes of Hughes, McNealy, Patrick Rodgers, English and Power currently rank 51st through 55th of the FedEx Cup Fall Standings. Come Sunday, those within the top 50 of the standings will be eligible for each of the PGA Tour’s 2025 Signature Events.
Kevin Yu, Lucas Glover, Mark Hubbard, Jake Knapp and Min Woo Lee currently rank 61st through 65th in the FedEx Cup Fall Standings. Those ranked 51st-through-60th will be eligible for the first two Signature Events in 2025. Lee is the only name of the previous five listed to not be playing this week at The RSM Classic.
The big situation is that the top 125 of the FedEx Cup Fall Standings will receive their PGA Tour cards for 2025.
As it currently sits, Sami Valimaki, Sam Ryder, Zac Blair, Joel Dahmen and Wesley Bryan are the first five in as they rank 121st through 125th.
Henrik Norlander, Daniel Berger, Hayden Springer, Pierceson Coody and S.H. Kim are the first five out coming into the week. They’ll need big weeks to secure full exemption for the 2025 season.
Joining Aberg as former winners of this event and teeing it up this week are Adam Svensson (2022,) Robert Streb (2014 & 2020,) Tyler Duncan (2019,) Austin Cook (2017,) Hughes (2016,) Kevin Kisner (2015,) Chris Kirk (2013) and Tommy Gainey (2012.)
The Course
This week’s The RSM Classic is played at two separate courses at the Sea Island Golf Club - the Plantation Course and the Seaside Course - in rotation for the first two days.
Those who make the cut will play their final two rounds at the Seaside Course.
Seaside Course
The Seaside Course plays as a par 70 at 7,005 yards.
It was originally made up of two separate nine-hole courses. The first nine-hole course was designed by Colt and Alison in 1929 and the second was added in 1973, designed by Joe Lee.
The Seaside Course was created in 1999 when Tom Fazio combined the two.
This track is positioned right on the southern tip of St. Simons Island and is described as a sea-side links style venue with Bermuda grass throughout.
It consists of two par-fives, four par-threes and 12 par-fours. Of the par-fours, ten of them play under 450 yards.
The most difficult hole at the Seaside Course is the par-four 14th hole that plays at 442-yards and has an average score of 0.1 strokes over par.
Being on the coast, this course is susceptible to very windy conditions. However, if the wind doesn’t become a factor, this course can play very easy.
Sebastian Munoz opened the 2021 renewal of this event with a ten-under-par 60 at the Seaside Course.
This course’s biggest defense is simply, the wind.
Plantation Course
The Plantation Course plays as a par-72 at 7,060 yards.
It was originally designed by Walter Travis in 1926 and was renovated in 1998 by Rees Jones. It was then revamped once again in 2019 by Love Golf Design.
Following the modifications in 2019, 153 yards were added and the course was made more difficult overall.
The par-five eighth hole was the only hole unchanged during the 2019 revamping.
This course is described as “parkland by the sea.”
Much like what we see at the Torrey Pines’ rotation of the North and South Courses, golfers must capitalize on the easier Plantation Course during one of their two opening rounds.
The Plantation Course has an average scoring average of 1.6 under par as the Seaside Course has an average scoring average of 0.9 under par.
The Weather
As of the time of writing this, I’m not sure we could ask for a better four days of fall golf. At most, there is a ten-percent chance of precipitation on Sunday as the rest of the week currently calls for a zero-percent chance. Temperatures will be at the lowest at 61-degrees on Friday and at the highest on Sunday at 67-degrees. Winds will begin at 15 miles-per-hour for both Thursday and Friday before falling to ten miles-per-hour on Saturday and finishing the week at five miles-per-hour on Sunday.
Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP)
Greens in Regulation Percentage (GIR%)
Scrambling
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda (SG: PUTT Bermuda)
Proximity to the hole from 100-175 Yards
Birdie or Better Percentage
Hit Fairway Percentage
Par Four Average Scoring
DFS Suggestions
$10,000+
I feel like there’s only one way to go with this price range and that’s with the defending champion Ludvig Aberg ($11,200.) Obviously the most expensive option this week and that is due to good reason. He is currently 13th on Tour in par four average scoring, 20th in scrambling, 22nd in SG: APP, 28th in birdie or better percentage, 62nd in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 68th in hit fairway percentage, 83rd in GIR% and 93rd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. He is the defending champion of this event for a reason. We haven’t seen Aberg on the PGA Tour since the TOUR Championship where he finished 16th. He placed T2nd the week prior at the BMW Championship.
$9,000-$9,900
One of my favorites to win this event is Ben Griffin ($9,300.) Griffin is fresh off an eighth place finish at last week's Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He also placed T24th at the World Wide Technology Championship and T22nd at the ZOZO Championship. He also placed T11th at the Black Desert Championship on the Fall Series. Griffin is currently fourth on Tour in par four average scoring, 17th in scrambling, 22nd in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 29th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 35th in SG: APP, 41st in birdie or better percentage, 45th in GIR% and 119th in hit fairway percentage. He also placed T8th here a season ago as well as T29th in the spring edition of 2023. Griffin is also on my betting card at +3500. Also consider Seamus Power ($9,200.) Power placed T23rd last week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. On the Fall Series he also placed T13th at the ZOZO Championship, T11th at the Black Desert Championship and T11th at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Power is currently 17th on Tour in scrambling, 19th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 28th in hit fairway percentage, 45th in par four average scoring, 59th in SG: APP, 74th in GIR%, 100th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 119th in birdie or better percentage. Power last played here in the spring of 2023 where he placed T5th. He also placed T4th here in 2022.
$8,000-$8,900
Leading off this price range is Andrew Novak ($8,100.) Novak has played this event in each of the last three installments where he made the cut twice, highlighted by a T26th in 2022. Novak is currently tenth on Tour in GIR%, 13th in par four average scoring, 20th in SG: APP, 31st in scrambling, 41st in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 55th in birdie or better percentage, 106th in hit fairway percentage and 154th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Novak is fresh off a solo second at last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He also placed T16th in his start prior at the ZOZO Championship. Also consider J.J. Spaun ($8,400.) Spaun placed T13th here a season ago, T15th in the spring of 2023 and T16th in 2022. Spaun is currently 12th in GIR%, 17th in SG: APP, 24th in par four average scoring, 25th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 51st in birdie or better percentage, 88th in hit fairway percentage, 110th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 121st in scrambling. We last saw Spaun at the World Wide Technology Championship where he placed T30th. He placed T6th at the ZOZO Championship, T34th at the Shriners Children’s Open and T25th at the Black Desert Championship on the Fall Series. He is also on my betting card at +4000 to win this week.
$7,000-$7,900
Per my stats based model this week, Patton Kizzire ($7,200) may be my overall favorite to win this week (at least with value included.) Kizzire is currently fourth on Tour in par four average scoring, seventh in GIR%, tenth in birdie or better percentage, 13th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 16th in SG: APP, 61st in both scrambling and hit fairway percentage and 85th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Kizzire has been out of form as of late, ever since he captured the Procore Championship to kick start the Fall Series. He followed that up with an 11th at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He has since missed back-to-back cuts coming into this week. Kizzire has made the cut at this event in six-of-the-last-seven editions including a T10th in 2021 and a T15th in 2019. Also consider Henrik Norlander ($7,200.) Norlander is currently 126th in the FedEx Fall Standings, one spot shy of full PGA Tour exemption for 2025. He is currently fourth on Tour in both of scrambling and par four average scoring, 11th in GIR%, 17th in SG: APP, 29th in hit fairway percentage, 44th in birdie or better percentage, 79th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards and 92nd in SG: PUTT Bermuda. Norlander has made the cut in back-to-back events coming into this week. He’s also made the cut in five-of-the-six Fall Series events he’s played, highlighted by a T8th at the Black Desert Championship. His track record here as of late isn’t anything to write home about either as he’s made the cut just once in three consecutive appearances here. I’m hoping the desperation propels him this week.
$6,900-
Leading off this final price range is Sam Ryder ($6,800.) Ryder is fresh off a T5th at last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He also placed T30th in his start prior at the World Wide Technology Championship. Ryder also placed T13th here a season ago. He is currently 22nd on Tour in birdie or better percentage, 28th in SG: PUTT Bermuda, 30th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 45th in par four average scoring, 46th in SG: APP, 47th in hit fairway percentage, 71st in GIR% and 153rd in scrambling. Ryder is also on my betting card at +18000. Also consider Brice Garnett ($6,500.) Garnett is not in the best of form, playing just three Fall Series events and making the cut in one of them (Sanderson Farms Championship.) He did miss the cut at this event a eason ago but was the first one out. He did make the cut here in the Spring of 2023. Garnett is currently second on Tour in hit fairway percentage, 13th in GIR%, 58th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 65th in scrambling, 70th in birdie or better percentage, 78th in SG: APP, 86th in par four average scoring and 95th in SG: PUTT Bermuda. In other words, he’s above average in each of the eight statistical categories I took into consideration this week.
Betting Card
Ben Griffin (+3500)
J.J. Spaun (+4000)
Greyson Sigg (+9000)
Patton Kizzire (+11000)
Sam Ryder (+18000)
Greyson Sigg (+9000)
Sigg is currently eighth on Tour in GIR%, ninth in scrambling, 23rd in SG: APP, 40th in proximity to the hole from 100-175 yards, 42nd in hit fairway percentage, 45th in par four average scoring, 128th in SG: PUTT Bermuda and 157th in birdie or better percentage. Sigg is fresh off a T9th at last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He also placed T23rd at the Shriners Children’s Open, T11th at the Black Desert Championship and T4th at the Procore Championship on the Fall Series. He placed T8th here a season ago and T15th in the Spring of 2023.